PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Burundi - Ligue A
Final score Young Star 0, Bumamuru 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Young Star win 19%, Draw 26%, Bumamuru win 55%.
Young Star host Bumamuru in the Ligue A, Burundi.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model gives Young Star a 19% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Bumamuru 55%.
The model expects Young Star to score 1.0 goals and Bumamuru 1.6.
Young Star have won 0 of their last 5 league matches; Bumamuru have won 1 of 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:32 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ligue A, before kick-off.
Young Star sit 16th with 1 points; Bumamuru sit 11th with 4. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Bumamuru.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Young Star at home and Bumamuru away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Young Star | Bumamuru |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 11th |
| Points per game | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 10) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 10 | Kayanza United | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Bumamuru | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Panthere Noir | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Young Star | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 1 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Aigle Noir | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 4 |
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 | 0.80 | 1 | 5 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 2 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 | 0.70 | 2 | 4 |
Young Star at home: Insufficient historical data: 2 matches.
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| +3 |
| 10 |
| 5 | Ngozi City | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Rukinzo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 8 |
| 7 | Vital'O | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Olympic Star | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Flambeau du Centre | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Kayanza United | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Bumamuru | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Musongati | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Inter Star | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Panthere Noir | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Young Star | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 1 |