Since 9 Oct: 151 of 180 top picks won. Expected about 144.
Trial leagues (10 shown): 9 of 10 won
Expected about 8 from their win chances.
Since 9 Oct: 36 of 42 trial picks won. Expected about 34.
Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.
9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.
From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.
4 of Alaves's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Alaves win 55%, Draw 24%, Malaga win 22%.
55%
Alaves win
24%
Draw
22%
Malaga win
Why this pick
Alaves host Malaga in the La Liga, Spain.
Our model gives a 76% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 70%.
The model expects Alaves to score 1.8 goals and Malaga 1.0.
4 of Alaves's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of Malaga's last 6 did.
Top factors
At home, Alaves have scored 2.0 goals a game and conceded 1.0 in their last 5 home matches.
Away, Malaga have scored 0.4 goals a game and conceded 2.0 in their last 5 away matches.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Thu 22 Oct, 20:18 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 22 Oct, 20:17 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.