Since 9 Oct: 151 of 180 top picks won. Expected about 144.
Trial leagues (10 shown): 9 of 10 won
Expected about 8 from their win chances.
Since 9 Oct: 36 of 42 trial picks won. Expected about 34.
Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.
9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.
From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.
Final score Bolton 1, Middlesbrough 5.The pick won.
Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.14
Short price: returns 14p for every £1 if it wins
5 of Middlesbrough's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Bolton win 28%, Draw 25%, Middlesbrough win 48%.
28%
Bolton win
25%
Draw
48%
Middlesbrough win
Why this pick
Bolton host Middlesbrough in the Championship, England.
Our model gives a 78% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 82%.
The model expects Bolton to score 1.2 goals and Middlesbrough 1.7.
4 of Bolton's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 5 of Middlesbrough's last 6 did.
Top factors
At home, Bolton have scored 1.2 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 home matches.
Away, Middlesbrough have scored 1.4 goals a game and conceded 1.6 in their last 5 away matches.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Thu 22 Oct, 20:18 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 22 Oct, 20:17 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.