Picks for Friday 23 October

Friday 23 October

7 of 7 top picks won

Expected about 6 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 151 of 180 top picks won. Expected about 144.

Trial leagues (10 shown): 9 of 10 won

Expected about 8 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 36 of 42 trial picks won. Expected about 34.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

Go Ahead EaglesTelstar32

7' Tengstedt, 33' Tengstedt, 48' Owusu, 67' Linthorst, 90+2' valk

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 88% · Price then 1.06

Short price: returns 6p for every £1 if it wins

VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach23

5' Demirović, 38' Scally, 51' Machino, 66' Mohya, 83' Demirović

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 72% · Price then 1.30

TorinoMonza32

39' Fitz-Jim, 47' Varela, 61' Belghali, 72' Vlašić, 90+4' Patterson (og)

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price then 1.21

Stade Brestois 29Nice12

15' Ajorque, 61' Wahi, 83' Diop

· Ligue 1, France

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 77% · Price then 1.22

IpswichNottingham Forest11

13' Williams, 41' Enciso

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.14

Short price: returns 14p for every £1 if it wins

BoltonMiddlesbrough15

13' Morris, 31' lankshear, 39' Brunt (og), 45+2' Bair, 73' Cozier-Duberry, 78' lankshear

· Championship, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 70% · Price then 1.34

AlavesMalaga11

44' Nino, 89' Mañas

· La Liga, Spain

See the match

Trial leagues (10)

10 of 18 trial picks shown

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price then 1.18

Ústí nad LabemKarviná13

13' Kronus, 37' Kronus, 55' Diarra, 59' Selnar

· FNL, Czech Republic

New league for us: our record here is still building (18 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.17

OpavaBaník Ostrava II11

47' Sy, 79' Bitta

· FNL, Czech Republic

New league for us: our record here is still building (18 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

Rot-Weiß EssenSSV Jahn Regensburg10

15' Brumme

· 3. Liga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (29 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

FC EindhovenJong PSV U2112

11' Dumbili, 31' Rayan·Buifrahi, 76' Jones (pen)

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

FC OSSJong Ajax33

27' Salazar, 42' unuvar, 54' Visser, 71' Mariani, 75' Visser, 90+2' Camara

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

NAC BredaHeracles11

11' Brym, 19' Gilst (pen)

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

De GraafschapWaalwijk11

33' Zijl, 83' Fage

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

Den BoschMVV22

9' Grach, 54' Klaasen, 61' Boumassaoudi, 78' Dicke

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.15

VitesseEmmen02

61' Love, 90+6' Breij (pen)

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

FC VolendamJong Utrecht62

17' Owen, 32' Veerman (pen), 39' Veerman, 41' Veerman, 46' Ghaddari, 53' Ihler, 66' Ihler, 80' Maftahi

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

De Graafschap v Waalwijk

Final score De Graafschap 1, Waalwijk 1.The pick won.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

Each of Waalwijk's last 11 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: De Graafschap win 42%, Draw 23%, Waalwijk win 35%.

Why this pick

De Graafschap host Waalwijk in the Eerste Divisie, Netherlands.

Our model gives an 83% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 85%.

The model expects De Graafschap to score 1.8 goals and Waalwijk 1.7.

5 of De Graafschap's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Waalwijk's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, De Graafschap have scored 1.4 goals a game and conceded 2.4 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Waalwijk have scored 0.8 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Thu 22 Oct, 20:18 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 22 Oct, 20:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.