Since 9 Oct: 151 of 180 top picks won. Expected about 144.
Trial leagues (10 shown): 9 of 10 won
Expected about 8 from their win chances.
Since 9 Oct: 36 of 42 trial picks won. Expected about 34.
Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.
9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.
From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.
New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).
We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.
De Graafschap v WaalwijkDe GraafschapHomeWaalwijkAway
Final score De Graafschap 1, Waalwijk 1.The pick won.
Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.09
Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins
Each of Waalwijk's last 11 league matches had two or more goals.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: De Graafschap win 42%, Draw 23%, Waalwijk win 35%.
42%
De Graafschap win
23%
Draw
35%
Waalwijk win
Why this pick
De Graafschap host Waalwijk in the Eerste Divisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives an 83% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 85%.
The model expects De Graafschap to score 1.8 goals and Waalwijk 1.7.
5 of De Graafschap's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Waalwijk's last 6 did.
Top factors
At home, De Graafschap have scored 1.4 goals a game and conceded 2.4 in their last 5 home matches.
Away, Waalwijk have scored 0.8 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Thu 22 Oct, 20:18 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 22 Oct, 20:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.