Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
FC Levadia TallinnKeila100
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchLoading picks…
Wednesday 7 October
11 of 16 picks won
4 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchPaysandu PA U20 win
Won
90%win chance when published
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
8 of 9 picks won among these
1 waiting for a result.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.31
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
Tuna Luso PA U20 win
Lost
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchAmérica RN U20 win
Won
84%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchNautico U20 win
Won
83%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCriciuma U20 win
Won
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCeará U20 win
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.26
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Gaúcho - 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.20
· England - Non League Premier - Southern South
See the matchFormartine United win
Won
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchBuckie Thistle win
Lost
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchHuntly win
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
79%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 63%
Price when published 1.43
· Algeria - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Brasileiro U17
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.32
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 67%
Price when published 1.37
· Uruguay - Copa Uruguay
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Italy - Coppa Italia Serie D
See the matchInverurie Loco Works win
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.29
· Algeria - Ligue 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Ecuador - Copa Ecuador
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the match· Brazil - Brasileiro U17
Final score Atlético Mineiro U17 3, Palmeiras U17 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Atlético Mineiro U17 win 53%, Draw 21%, Palmeiras U17 win 26%.
Atlético Mineiro U17 host Palmeiras U17 in the Brasileiro U17, Brazil.
Our model gives Atlético Mineiro U17 a 53% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Palmeiras U17 26%.
The model expects Atlético Mineiro U17 to score 2.1 goals and Palmeiras U17 1.5.
Atlético Mineiro U17 have won 5 of their last 6 league matches; Palmeiras U17 have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Wed 7 Oct, 00:17 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 4% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Atlético Mineiro U17 54% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Brasileiro U17, before kick-off.
Atlético Mineiro U17 sit 8th with 32 points; Palmeiras U17 sit 1st with 44. A gap of 13 in goal difference, in favour of Palmeiras U17.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras U17 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 26 | +30 | 44 |
| 2 | Corinthians U17 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 58 | 20 | +38 | 39 |
| 7 | Fortaleza U17 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 33 |
| 8 | Atlético Mineiro U17 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 32 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo U17 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 30 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: July 2024 to June 2026.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Atlético Mineiro U17 at home and Palmeiras U17 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 25 | 2.50 | 5 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 17 | 1.70 | 4 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Atlético Mineiro U17 | Palmeiras U17 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 1st |
| Points per game | 1.68 | 2.32 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.70 | 2.90 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras U17 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 26 | +30 | 44 |
| 2 | Corinthians U17 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 58 | 20 | +38 | 39 |
| 3 | RB Bragantino U17 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 26 | +29 | 39 |
| 4 | Fluminense U17 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 16 | +19 | 37 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro U17 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 37 |
| 6 | Flamengo RJ U17 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 22 | +15 | 33 |
| 7 | Fortaleza U17 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 33 |
| 8 | Atlético Mineiro U17 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 32 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo U17 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 30 |
| 10 | Santos U17 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 30 |
| 11 | Athletico PR U17 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 29 |
| 12 | Botafogo U17 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 25 |
| 13 | Vasco U17 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 23 |
| 14 | Internacional U17 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 | Bahia U17 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 21 |
| 16 | America MG U17 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 19 |
| 17 | Juventude U17 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 49 | -31 | 16 |
| 18 | Vitoria U17 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 46 | -27 | 10 |
| 19 | Gremio U17 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 52 | -37 | 10 |
| 20 | Atletico GO U17 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 16 | 73 | -57 | 3 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 12 |
| 6 |
| +6 |
| 10 |
| 2.00 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 25 | 2.50 | 4 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 19 | 2.11 | 1 | 0 |
|---|