Cerrito vs Wanderers prediction, Wednesday 7 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Uruguay - Copa Uruguay
Cerrito v WanderersHomevAwayHomevAway
Final score Cerrito 2, Wanderers 2.The pick won.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 67%
Price when published 1.37
Each of Cerrito's last 3 league matches had two or more goals.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Cerrito win 44%, Draw 27%, Wanderers win 30%.
Cerrito host Wanderers in the Copa Uruguay, Uruguay.
Our model gives a 77% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 67%.
The model expects Cerrito to score 1.5 goals and Wanderers 1.2.
3 of Cerrito's last 3 league matches had two or more goals; 3 of Wanderers's last 3 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Wed 7 Oct, 15:26 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Cerrito win
- 44% · price 1.97
Picks for Wednesday 7 October
Wednesday 7 October
11 of 16 picks won
4 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
LTAFC Levadia TallinnKEIKeila100
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchwin chance when published
Other picks (10)
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
8 of 9 picks won among these
1 waiting for a result.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.31
ACAAcademia CantolaoSANSantos03
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
PPAPaysandu PA U20IAPIndependente-AP U2060
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
win chance when published
Our model · No price
TLPTuna Luso PA U20UTOUnião TO U2011
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
ARNAmérica RN U20PIAPiauí U2032
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
NAUNautico U20SERSergipe U2062
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
CRICriciuma U20BARBarra SC U2030
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
CEACeará U20FERFerroviario U2010
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.26
FERFerro 2INDIndependiente Res.00
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
ENHEC Novo HorizonteREAReal09
· Brazil - Gaúcho - 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.20
GBOGosport BoroughPOOPoole Town13
· England - Non League Premier - Southern South
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
FORFormartine UnitedDEVDeveronvale21
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
BTHBuckie ThistleLOSLossiemouth24
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
ROTRothesHUNHuntly13
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · No price
KEIKeithTURTurriff United10
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
RZURayo ZulianoDLADeportivo Lara32
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
PETPetare FCAAVAtletico Avila FC00
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
FASFASFSFFuerte San Francisco
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
MLIMunicipal LimeñoAGUÁguila
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
CACCacahuatiqueINTInter
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
FIRFirpoALIAlianza
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 63%
Price when published 1.43
BAKBen AknounJBIJS El Biar22
· Algeria - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
CRUCruzeiro U17FLUFluminense U1720
· Brazil - Brasileiro U17
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.32
DRIDeportivo Riestra Res.IRIIndependiente Riva. Res.31
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 67%
Price when published 1.37
CERCerritoWANWanderers22
· Uruguay - Copa Uruguay
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
NOCNocerinaTURTurris11
· Italy - Coppa Italia Serie D
See the matchInverurie Loco Works win
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
ILWInverurie Loco WorksINVInvergordon10
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.29
CBECR BelouizdadKHEKhenchela10
· Algeria - Ligue 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
UCAUniversidad CatolicaLQULDU de Quito
· Ecuador - Copa Ecuador
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
UREUrena SCTRUTrujillanos FC22
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchWanderers win30% · price 3.29 Over 1.5 goals77% · price 1.37 Over 2.5 goals53% · price 2.18 Both teams score55% · price 1.98 Expected goals (our model)Cerrito 1.5, Wanderers 1.2 Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
- Cerrito sit 6th with 6 points; Wanderers sit 23rd with 1 point.
- Cerrito have taken 6 points from their last 3 matches; Wanderers 1 from 3.
- At home, Cerrito have taken 0 points from their last 1; away, Wanderers have taken 0 from their last 1.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Copa Uruguay, before kick-off.
Cerrito sit 6th with 6 points; Wanderers sit 23rd with 1. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Cerrito.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 5th Liverpool Montevideo6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Cerrito6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Juventud6 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
- 22nd Colón1 points from 3 games · goal difference -5
- 23rd Wanderers1 points from 3 games · goal difference -5
- 24th Progreso0 points from 3 games · goal difference -4
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | Cerrito | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Juventud | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 22 | Colón | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 1 |
| 23 | Wanderers | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 0 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Deportivo Maldonado9 points from 3 games · goal difference +6
- 2nd Boston River9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 3rd Central Espanol7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
- 4th Club Nacional7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
- 5th Liverpool Montevideo6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Cerrito6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Juventud6 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
- 8th Plaza Colonia6 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Penarol5 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
- 10th Albion FC5 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
- 11th Atletico Torque
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Wanderers23 Sept 2026 · Copa Uruguay · Away3–1
WWonat Cerro10 Sept 2026 · Copa Uruguay · Away2–0
LLostv Deportivo Maldonado2 Sept 2026 · Copa Uruguay · Home0–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Cerrito23 Sept 2026 · Copa Uruguay · Home1–3
LLostat Deportivo Maldonado9 Sept 2026 · Copa Uruguay · Away1–4
DDrewv Cerro1 Sept 2026 · Copa Uruguay · Home1–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Cerrito at home and Wanderers away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Cerrito
- Last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 0 scored, 2 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 0 scored, 2 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Cerrito| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Wanderers
- Last 5 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 8 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 8 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 4 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 4 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Wanderers| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 |
|---|
Cerrito at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Wanderers away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Cerrito | Wanderers |
|---|
| League position | 6th | 23rd |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.33 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 3 and 3) | 1.67 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 3 and 3) | 1.00 | 2.67 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
4 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
12th CA River Plate4 points from 3 games · goal difference +113th Cerro Largo4 points from 3 games · goal difference 014th Rentistas4 points from 3 games · goal difference 015th Danubio4 points from 3 games · goal difference -116th Racing Montevideo3 points from 3 games · goal difference -417th Atenas2 points from 3 games · goal difference -118th Defensor Sporting2 points from 3 games · goal difference -119th Oriental1 points from 3 games · goal difference -220th Fenix1 points from 3 games · goal difference -321st Cerro1 points from 3 games · goal difference -322nd Colón1 points from 3 games · goal difference -523rd Wanderers1 points from 3 games · goal difference -524th Progreso0 points from 3 games · goal difference -4| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Boston River | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 9 |
| 3 | Central Espanol | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | Cerrito | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Juventud | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Plaza Colonia | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Penarol | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Atletico Torque | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | CA River Plate | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 4 |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Rentistas | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Danubio | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Atenas | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Oriental | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenix | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 1 |
| 21 | Cerro | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Colón | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 1 |
| 23 | Wanderers | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 0 |
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|