Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
FC Levadia TallinnKeila100
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchLoading picks…
Wednesday 7 October
11 of 16 picks won
4 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchPaysandu PA U20 win
Won
90%win chance when published
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
8 of 9 picks won among these
1 waiting for a result.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.31
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Argentina - Reserve League
Final score Ferro 2 0, Independiente Res. 0.The pick lost.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.26
Each of Independiente Res.'s last 7 away matches had two or more goals.
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
Tuna Luso PA U20 win
Lost
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchAmérica RN U20 win
Won
84%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchNautico U20 win
Won
83%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCriciuma U20 win
Won
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCeará U20 win
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.26
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Gaúcho - 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.20
· England - Non League Premier - Southern South
See the matchFormartine United win
Won
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchBuckie Thistle win
Lost
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchHuntly win
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
79%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 63%
Price when published 1.43
· Algeria - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Brasileiro U17
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.32
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 67%
Price when published 1.37
· Uruguay - Copa Uruguay
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Italy - Coppa Italia Serie D
See the matchInverurie Loco Works win
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.29
· Algeria - Ligue 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Ecuador - Copa Ecuador
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchChances of each result: Ferro 2 win 24%, Draw 25%, Independiente Res. win 51%.
Ferro 2 host Independiente Res. in the Reserve League, Argentina.
Our model gives a 78% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 71%.
The model expects Ferro 2 to score 1.2 goals and Independiente Res. 1.7.
5 of Ferro 2's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 5 of Independiente Res.'s last 6 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Wed 7 Oct, 15:26 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Reserve League, before kick-off.
Ferro 2 sit 32nd with 27 points; Independiente Res. sit 2nd with 62. A gap of 53 in goal difference, in favour of Independiente Res.; Ferro 2 have played 1 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Ferro 2 at home and Independiente Res. away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Ferro 2 | Independiente Res. |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 32nd | 2nd |
| Points per game | 0.93 | 2.07 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| P |
|---|
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +36 | 63 |
| 2 | Independiente Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +35 | 62 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors Res. | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 59 |
| 31 | Tigre Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 30 |
| 32 | Ferro 2 | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 27 |
| 33 | Aldosivi Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 26 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +36 | 63 |
| 2 | Independiente Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +35 | 62 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors Res. | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 59 |
| 4 | Lanús Res. |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 13 | 2.17 | 1 | 0 |
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
Ferro 2 at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Independiente Res. away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| 30 |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +20 |
| 58 |
| 5 | River Plate Res. | 33 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 57 |
| 6 | Racing Club Res. | 33 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Estudiantes La Plata Res | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 49 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Res. | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 49 |
| 9 | Quilmes 2 | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 49 |
| 10 | Rosario Central Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 46 |
| 11 | Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 46 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 45 |
| 13 | Unión Santa Fe Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 45 |
| 14 | Defensa y Justicia Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 44 |
| 15 | Huracán Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 43 |
| 16 | Talleres Córdoba Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 43 |
| 17 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 42 |
| 18 | Atlético Tucumán Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 42 |
| 19 | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 40 |
| 20 | Argentinos Juniors Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 39 |
| 21 | San Lorenzo Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 38 |
| 22 | Instituto Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 38 |
| 23 | Sarmiento Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 33 |
| 24 | Independiente Riva. Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 33 |
| 25 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 33 |
| 26 | Platense Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 32 |
| 27 | Banfield Res. | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 32 |
| 28 | Godoy Cruz Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 31 |
| 29 | Atl. Rafaela 2 | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 31 |
| 30 | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 31 |
| 31 | Tigre Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 30 |
| 32 | Ferro 2 | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 27 |
| 33 | Aldosivi Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 26 |
| 34 | Colón Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 26 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -24 | 24 |
| 36 | San Martín San Juan Res. | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -54 | 18 |