Firpo vs Alianza prediction, Wednesday 7 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
Firpo v AlianzaHomevAwayHomevAway
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance when published
Our model · No price
Each of Firpo's last 3 league matches had two or more goals.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Firpo win 37%, Draw 27%, Alianza win 36%.
Firpo host Alianza in the Copa Presidente, El Salvador.
Our model gives a 77% chance of 2 or more goals in the match.
The model expects Firpo to score 1.4 goals and Alianza 1.4.
3 of Firpo's last 4 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of Alianza's last 5 did.
Top factors
- Away, Alianza have scored 1.8 goals a game and conceded 1.5 in their last 4 away matches.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Wed 7 Oct, 15:26 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model)Firpo 1.4, Alianza 1.4 Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
- Firpo sit 4th with 10 points; Alianza sit 5th with 9 points.
- Firpo have taken 10 points from their last 4 matches; Alianza 9 from 5.
- At home, Firpo have taken 3 points from their last 1; away, Alianza have taken 6 from their last 4.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Copa Presidente, before kick-off.
Firpo sit 4th with 10 points; Alianza sit 5th with 9. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Firpo; Firpo have played 1 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 3rd Inter13 points from 5 games · goal difference +10
- 4th Firpo10 points from 4 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Alianza9 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 6th Municipal Limeño9 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 3 | Inter | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 13 |
| 4 | Firpo | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Alianza | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Municipal Limeño | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Águila15 points from 5 games · goal difference +11
- 2nd FAS13 points from 5 games · goal difference +10
- 3rd Inter13 points from 5 games · goal difference +10
- 4th Firpo10 points from 4 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Alianza9 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 6th Municipal Limeño9 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Hércules8 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Isidro Metapán8 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Cacahuatique7 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 10th Platense5 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Fuerte San Francisco5 points from 4 games · goal difference 0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Batanecos23 Apr 2026 · Copa Presidente · Home3–0
WWonat Batanecos8 Apr 2026 · Copa Presidente · Away2–0
DDrewat El Roble11 Mar 2026 · Copa Presidente · Away1–1
WWonat Cacahuatique25 Feb 2026 · Copa Presidente · Away1–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Isidro Metapán21 Apr 2026 · Copa Presidente · Away1–1
WWonv Isidro Metapán8 Apr 2026 · Copa Presidente · Home3–1
DDrewat Zacatecoluca12 Mar 2026 · Copa Presidente · Away3–3
WWonat Batanecos24 Feb 2026 · Copa Presidente · Away1–0
DDrewat Vendaval12 Feb 2026 · Copa Presidente · Away2–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Firpo at home and Alianza away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Firpo
- Last 5 (4)3 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 1 conceded · 2.50 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (4)3 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 1 conceded · 2.50 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Firpo| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Alianza
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 10 scored, 7 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (5)2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 10 scored, 7 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (4)1 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 6 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (4)1 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 6 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Alianza| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Firpo at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Alianza away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Firpo | Alianza |
|---|
| League position | 4th | 5th |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.80 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 4 and 5) | 1.75 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 4 and 5) | 0.25 | 1.40 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Picks for Wednesday 7 October
Wednesday 7 October
11 of 16 picks won
4 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
LTAFC Levadia TallinnKEIKeila100
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchwin chance when published
Other picks (10)
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
8 of 9 picks won among these
1 waiting for a result.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.31
ACAAcademia CantolaoSANSantos03
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Águila | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | FAS | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 13 |
| 3 | Inter | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 13 |
| 4 | Firpo | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Alianza | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Municipal Limeño | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Hércules | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Isidro Metapán | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Cacahuatique | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Platense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Fuerte San Francisco | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | El Roble | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Izalco | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Zacatecoluca | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Dragón | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Cruzeiro | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Talleres Jr | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Batanecos | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| 19 | Tenancingo | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 2 |
| 20 | Vendaval | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Cabanas | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Racing de Gualuca | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Fuerte Aguilares | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 0 |
| 24 | Once Municipal | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 0 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
PPAPaysandu PA U20IAPIndependente-AP U2060
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
win chance when published
Our model · No price
TLPTuna Luso PA U20UTOUnião TO U2011
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
ARNAmérica RN U20PIAPiauí U2032
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
NAUNautico U20SERSergipe U2062
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
CRICriciuma U20BARBarra SC U2030
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
CEACeará U20FERFerroviario U2010
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.26
FERFerro 2INDIndependiente Res.00
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
ENHEC Novo HorizonteREAReal09
· Brazil - Gaúcho - 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.20
GBOGosport BoroughPOOPoole Town13
· England - Non League Premier - Southern South
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
FORFormartine UnitedDEVDeveronvale21
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
BTHBuckie ThistleLOSLossiemouth24
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchwin chance when published
Our model · No price
ROTRothesHUNHuntly13
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · No price
KEIKeithTURTurriff United10
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
RZURayo ZulianoDLADeportivo Lara32
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
PETPetare FCAAVAtletico Avila FC00
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
FASFASFSFFuerte San Francisco
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
MLIMunicipal LimeñoAGUÁguila
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
CACCacahuatiqueINTInter
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
FIRFirpoALIAlianza
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 63%
Price when published 1.43
BAKBen AknounJBIJS El Biar22
· Algeria - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
CRUCruzeiro U17FLUFluminense U1720
· Brazil - Brasileiro U17
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.32
DRIDeportivo Riestra Res.IRIIndependiente Riva. Res.31
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 67%
Price when published 1.37
CERCerritoWANWanderers22
· Uruguay - Copa Uruguay
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
NOCNocerinaTURTurris11
· Italy - Coppa Italia Serie D
See the matchInverurie Loco Works win
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
ILWInverurie Loco WorksINVInvergordon10
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.29
CBECR BelouizdadKHEKhenchela10
· Algeria - Ligue 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
UCAUniversidad CatolicaLQULDU de Quito
· Ecuador - Copa Ecuador
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
UREUrena SCTRUTrujillanos FC22
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the match