Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
FC Levadia TallinnKeila100
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchLoading picks…
Wednesday 7 October
11 of 16 picks won
4 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchPaysandu PA U20 win
Won
90%win chance when published
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
8 of 9 picks won among these
1 waiting for a result.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.31
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
Tuna Luso PA U20 win
Lost
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchAmérica RN U20 win
Won
84%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchNautico U20 win
Won
83%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCriciuma U20 win
Won
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCeará U20 win
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.26
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Gaúcho - 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.20
· England - Non League Premier - Southern South
See the matchFormartine United win
Won
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchBuckie Thistle win
Lost
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchHuntly win
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
79%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 63%
Price when published 1.43
· Algeria - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Brasileiro U17
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.32
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 67%
Price when published 1.37
· Uruguay - Copa Uruguay
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Italy - Coppa Italia Serie D
See the matchInverurie Loco Works win
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.29
· Algeria - Ligue 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Ecuador - Copa Ecuador
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the match· England - Non League Premier - Northern
Final score Avro 5, Lancaster City 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Avro win 42%, Draw 23%, Lancaster City win 35%.
Avro host Lancaster City in the Non League Premier - Northern, England.
Our model gives Avro a 42% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Lancaster City 35%.
The model expects Avro to score 1.8 goals and Lancaster City 1.7.
Avro have won 5 of their last 6 league matches; Lancaster City have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Wed 7 Oct, 00:17 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Non League Premier - Northern, before kick-off.
Avro sit 4th with 22 points; Lancaster City sit 12th with 16. A gap of 18 in goal difference, in favour of Avro; Avro have played 2 fewer.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 22 |
| 4 | Avro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 21 |
| 11 | Gainsborough Trinity | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Avro at home and Lancaster City away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 | 2.40 | 2 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 17 | +11 | 22 | 2.20 | 3 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (9) | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 18 | +16 | 19 | 2.11 | 1 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Avro | Lancaster City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 12th |
| Points per game | 2.44 | 1.45 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.80 | 1.10 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.70 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| -8 |
| 14 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 27 |
| 2 | Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 25 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 22 |
| 4 | Avro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 21 |
| 6 | Rylands | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 19 |
| 8 | Alfreton Town | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 18 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 | Bury | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 16 |
| 11 | Gainsborough Trinity | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Whitby Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
| 16 | Stockton Town | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Quorn | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 9 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 10 |
| -5 |
| 6 |
| 1.20 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 | 1.60 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 14 | 1.40 | 2 | 1 |
|---|