Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
FC Levadia TallinnKeila100
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchLoading picks…
Wednesday 7 October
11 of 16 picks won
4 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Estonia - Cup
See the matchPaysandu PA U20 win
Won
90%win chance when published
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
8 of 9 picks won among these
1 waiting for a result.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.31
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Uzbekistan - Super League
Final score Neftchi 2, Xorazm 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Neftchi win 72%, Draw 20%, Xorazm win 9%.
Neftchi host Xorazm in the Super League, Uzbekistan.
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
Tuna Luso PA U20 win
Lost
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchAmérica RN U20 win
Won
84%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchNautico U20 win
Won
83%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCriciuma U20 win
Won
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCeará U20 win
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.26
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Gaúcho - 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.20
· England - Non League Premier - Southern South
See the matchFormartine United win
Won
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchBuckie Thistle win
Lost
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchHuntly win
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
79%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Copa Presidente
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 63%
Price when published 1.43
· Algeria - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Brasileiro U17
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.32
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 67%
Price when published 1.37
· Uruguay - Copa Uruguay
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Italy - Coppa Italia Serie D
See the matchInverurie Loco Works win
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Scotland - Football League - Highland League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 70%
Price when published 1.29
· Algeria - Ligue 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Ecuador - Copa Ecuador
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 68%
Price when published 1.34
· Venezuela - Copa Venezuela
See the matchOur model gives Neftchi a 72% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Xorazm 9%.
The model expects Neftchi to score 2.1 goals and Xorazm 0.7.
Neftchi have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Xorazm have won 0 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Super League, before kick-off.
Neftchi sit 1st with 51 points; Xorazm sit 14th with 21. A gap of 47 in goal difference, in favour of Neftchi.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Neftchi at home and Xorazm away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Neftchi | Xorazm |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 14th |
| Points per game | 2.32 | 0.95 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 51 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 49 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 21 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 20 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 51 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 44 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv | 22 | – |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 | 2.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 3 |
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
Neftchi at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Xorazm away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +8 |
| 35 |
| 5 | Olmaliq | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 34 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Sogdiana | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Surkhon | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Qizilqum | 21 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 21 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -33 | 4 |