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Thu 07:00 EDT · Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Aktobe Jas v Tobol 2

Final score Aktobe Jas 4, Tobol 2 4.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

What the data says

Aktobe Jas host Tobol 2 in the 1. Division, Kazakhstan.

Aktobe Jas vs Tobol 2 prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

More filters

Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.

Aktobe Jas win: 42%
Draw: 21%
Tobol 2 win: 37%
Over 1.5 goals: 89%
Over 2.5 goals: 70%
Both teams score: 67%
Expected goals (our model): Aktobe Jas 2.1, Tobol 2 2.0

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Aktobe Jas sit 12th with 23 points; Tobol 2 sit 13th with 16 points.
Aktobe Jas have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Tobol 2 6 from 5.
At home, Aktobe Jas have taken 3 points from their last 5; away, Tobol 2 have taken 6 from their last 5.
Aktobe Jas have had 20 days since their last match; Tobol 2 18.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the 1. Division, before kick-off.

Aktobe Jas sit 12th with 23 points; Tobol 2 sit 13th with 16. A gap of 14 in goal difference, in favour of Tobol 2.

11th Arys24 points from 23 games · goal difference -14
12th Aktobe Jas23 points from 23 games · goal difference -31
13th Tobol 216 points from 23 games · goal difference -17
14th Yelimay Semey 212 points from 23 games · goal difference -30

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA

Aktobe Jas: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Arys17 Sept 2026 · 1. Division · Away1–4

v Turan Turkistan10 Sept 2026 · 1. Division · Home1–3

at Akademiya Ontustik3 Sept 2026 · 1. Division · Away1–2

v Jaiyq28 Aug 2026 · 1. Division · Home1–0

Tobol 2: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Kaspij Aktau 219 Sept 2026 · 1. Division · Home3–0

at Ekibastuz11 Sept 2026 · 1. Division · Away5–1

v Sport Academy Kairat3 Sept 2026 · 1. Division · Home0–1

at Taraz28 Aug 2026 · 1. Division · Away1–3

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Insufficient historical data: fewer than 3 meetings.

Meetings: 1
Aktobe Jas wins: 0
Draws: 1
Tobol 2 wins: 0

Record shown: July 2026.

2 Jul 2026 · 1. DivisionTobol 25–5Aktobe Jas

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Aktobe Jas at home and Tobol 2 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Aktobe Jas

Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 9 scored, 11 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)2 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost · 12 scored, 30 conceded · 0.70 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Home, last 5 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 3 scored, 15 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Home, last 10 (10)4 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost · 18 scored, 26 conceded · 1.30 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2

Aktobe Jas
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Aktobe Jas	Tobol 2
League position	12th	13th
Points per game	1.00	0.70
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.20	1.90
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	3.00	1.90
Clean sheets	1	2

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Aktobe Jas: 20 days since their last match (17 Sept 2026).
Tobol 2: 18 days since their last match (19 Sept 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Aktobe Jas

None reported.

Tobol 2

None reported.

Show full table

1st Shakhter Karagandy62 points from 23 games · goal difference +56
2nd Sport Academy Kairat56 points from 23 games · goal difference +54
3rd Turan Turkistan50 points from 23 games · goal difference +30
4th Akademiya Ontustik43 points from 23 games · goal difference +9
5th Astana II33 points from 23 games · goal difference -1
6th Jaiyq31 points from 23 games · goal difference -5
7th Taraz30 points from 23 games · goal difference -2
8th Ekibastuz26 points from 23 games · goal difference -22
9th Kaspij Aktau 225 points from 23 games · goal difference -12
10th Khan Tengri25 points from 23 games · goal difference -15
11th Arys24 points from 23 games · goal difference -14
12th Aktobe Jas23 points from 23 games · goal difference -31
13th Tobol 216 points from 23 games · goal difference -17
14th Yelimay Semey 212 points from 23 games · goal difference -30

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	23	20	2	1	64	8	+56	62
2	Sport Academy Kairat	23	17	5	1	66	12	+54	56
3	Turan Turkistan	23	16	2	5	51	21	+30	50
4	Akademiya Ontustik

Last 5 (5)	5	2	0	3	9	11	-2	6	1.20	1	0
Last 10 (10)	10	2	1	7	12	30	-18	7	0.70	1	2
Home, last 5 (5)	5	1	0	4	3	15	-12	3	0.60	1	2
Home, last 10 (10)	10	4	1	5	18	26	-8	13	1.30	1	2

Tobol 2

Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 12 scored, 9 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)3 won, 0 drawn, 7 lost · 19 scored, 19 conceded · 0.90 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 11 scored, 9 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (10)2 won, 0 drawn, 8 lost · 13 scored, 24 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 4

Tobol 2
Sample	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	2	3	12	9	+3	6	1.20	1	1
Last 10 (10)	10	3	7	19	19	0	9	0.90	2	3
Away, last 5 (5)	5	2	3	11	9	+2	6	1.20	1	1
Away, last 10 (10)	10	2	8	13	24	-11	6	0.60	1	4

11	Arys	23	7	3	13	29	43	-14	24
12	Aktobe Jas	23	6	5	12	38	69	-31	23
13	Tobol 2	23	4	4	15	40	57	-17	16
14	Yelimay Semey 2	23	3	3	17	17	47	-30	12

Aktobe Jas v Tobol 2Aktobe JasHomevTobol 2AwayAktobe JasHomevTobol 2Away

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Aktobe Jas v Tobol 2Aktobe JasHomevTobol 2AwayAktobe JasHomevTobol 2Away

Our model's chances

What the data says

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Aktobe Jas: recent fixtures

Tobol 2: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Aktobe Jas

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Aktobe Jas

Tobol 2

Tobol 2

Aktobe Jas v Tobol 2

Aktobe Jas v Tobol 2