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Thu 09:00 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Aral v Qiziriq

Aral win

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 84%

Price when published 1.07

Qiziriq have lost each of their last 13 league matches.

Our model's chances

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

More filters

Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Aral vs Qiziriq prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.

Aral win: 83% · price 1.07
Draw: 13% · price 8.70
Qiziriq win: 4% · price 18.93
Over 1.5 goals: 81%
Over 2.5 goals: 59% · price 1.27
Both teams score: 47% · price 2.28
Expected goals (our model): Aral 2.6, Qiziriq 0.6

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Pro League A, before kick-off.

Aral sit 1st with 49 points; Qiziriq sit 14th with 4. A gap of 65 in goal difference, in favour of Aral.

1st Aral49 points from 20 games · goal difference +29
2nd Shortan45 points from 21 games · goal difference +18
13th BuxDu10 points from 21 games · goal difference -36
14th Qiziriq4 points from 20 games · goal difference -36

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Aral: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Yaypan21 Sept 2026 · Pro League A · Away5–2

v Lochin13 Sept 2026 · Pro League A · Home2–0

at FarDu7 Sept 2026 · Pro League A · Away1–1

v Kattaqurgon27 Aug 2026 · Pro League A · Home1–0

Qiziriq: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Gazalkent22 Sept 2026 · Pro League A · Home1–4

at Shortan12 Sept 2026 · Pro League A · Away0–3

v Jayxun7 Sept 2026 · Pro League A · Home0–1

at Pakhtakor II28 Aug 2026 · Pro League A · Away0–3

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Insufficient historical data: fewer than 3 meetings.

Meetings: 1
Aral wins: 1
Draws: 0
Qiziriq wins: 0

Record shown: May 2026.

29 May 2026 · Pro League AQiziriq0–1Aral

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Aral at home and Qiziriq away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Aral

Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 10 scored, 5 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)7 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 18 scored, 6 conceded · 2.30 points a game · 6 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 5 (5)5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 9 scored, 1 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (10)10 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 22 scored, 3 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 7 clean sheets · failed to score in 0

Aral
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Aral	Qiziriq
League position	1st	14th
Points per game	2.45	0.20
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.80	0.40
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	0.60	2.80
Clean sheets	6	0

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Aral: 17 days since their last match (21 Sept 2026).
Qiziriq: 16 days since their last match (22 Sept 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Aral

None reported.

Qiziriq

None reported.

Show full table

1st Aral49 points from 20 games · goal difference +29
2nd Shortan45 points from 21 games · goal difference +18
3rd Metalourg40 points from 20 games · goal difference +30
4th FarDu40 points from 21 games · goal difference +10
5th Lochin35 points from 21 games · goal difference +7
6th Kattaqurgon33 points from 19 games · goal difference +7
7th Olimpik-Mobiuz32 points from 19 games · goal difference +14
8th Gazalkent32 points from 20 games · goal difference +13
9th Jayxun24 points from 21 games · goal difference -5
10th Respublika FA22 points from 19 games · goal difference -4
11th Yaypan22 points from 20 games · goal difference -14
12th Pakhtakor II10 points from 20 games · goal difference -33
13th BuxDu10 points from 21 games · goal difference -36
14th Qiziriq4 points from 20 games · goal difference -36

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Aral	20	15	4	1	42	13	+29	49
2	Shortan	21	14	3	4	38	20	+18	45
3	Metalourg	20	12	4	4	46	16	+30	40
4	FarDu	21	11

Last 5 (5)	5	3	1	1	10	5	+5	10	2.00	2	0
Last 10 (10)	10	7	2	1	18	6	+12	23	2.30	6	1
Home, last 5 (5)	5	5	0	0	9	1	+8	15	3.00	4	0
Home, last 10 (10)	10	10	0	0	22	3	+19	30	3.00	7	0

Qiziriq

Last 5 (5)0 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost · 1 scored, 14 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Last 10 (10)0 won, 0 drawn, 10 lost · 4 scored, 28 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 6
Away, last 5 (5)0 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost · 2 scored, 16 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 10 (10)1 won, 1 drawn, 8 lost · 7 scored, 26 conceded · 0.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 5

Qiziriq
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	0	0	5	1	14	-13	0	0.00	0	4
Last 10 (10)	10	0	0	10	4	28	-24	0	0.00	0	6
Away, last 5 (5)	5	0	0	5	2	16	-14	0	0.00	0	3
Away, last 10 (10)	10	1	1	8	7	26	-19	4	0.40	1	5

Aral v Qiziriq

Our model's chances

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Aral v Qiziriq

Our model's chances

Why this pick

Top factors

Key numbers

League context

Aral: recent fixtures

Qiziriq: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Aral

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Aral

Qiziriq

Qiziriq

1	Aral	20	15	4	1	42	13	+29	49
2	Shortan	21	14	3	4	38	20	+18	45
13	BuxDu	21	3	1	17	18	54	-36	10
14	Qiziriq	20	1	1	18	12	48	-36	4

Aral v QiziriqAralHomevQiziriqAwayAralHomevQiziriqAway

Our model's chances

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Aral v QiziriqAralHomevQiziriqAwayAralHomevQiziriqAway

Our model's chances

Why this pick

Top factors

Key numbers

League context

Aral: recent fixtures

Qiziriq: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Aral

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Aral

Qiziriq

Qiziriq

Aral v Qiziriq

Aral v Qiziriq