Shakhter Karagandy v Akademiya OntustikShakhter KaragandyHomevAkademiya OntustikAwayShakhter KaragandyHomevAkademiya OntustikAway
Final score Shakhter Karagandy 2, Akademiya Ontustik 0.The pick won.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
5 of Shakhter Karagandy's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Shakhter Karagandy win 74%, Draw 18%, Akademiya Ontustik win 8%.
74%
Shakhter Karagandy win
18%
Draw
8%
Akademiya Ontustik win
Why this pick
Shakhter Karagandy host Akademiya Ontustik in the 1. Division, Kazakhstan.
Our model gives an 80% chance of 2 or more goals in the match.
The model expects Shakhter Karagandy to score 2.2 goals and Akademiya Ontustik 0.8.
5 of Shakhter Karagandy's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 3 of Akademiya Ontustik's last 6 did.
Top factors
At home, Shakhter Karagandy have scored 2.6 goals a game and conceded 0.2 in their last 5 home matches.
Away, Akademiya Ontustik have scored 1.4 goals a game and conceded 1.0 in their last 5 away matches.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Thu 8 Oct, 00:22 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Picks for Thursday 8 October
Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
27 Jun 2025 · 1. DivisionShakhter Karagandy4–1Akademiya Ontustik
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Shakhter Karagandy at home and Akademiya Ontustik away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Shakhter Karagandy
Last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 13 scored, 1 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)9 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 28 scored, 3 conceded · 2.80 points a game · 7 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 13 scored, 1 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (10)9 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 28 scored, 1 conceded · 2.80 points a game · 9 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Shakhter Karagandy
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
4
1
0
13
1
+12
13
2.60
4
1
Last 10 (10)
10
9
1
0
28
3
+25
28
2.80
7
1
Home, last 5 (5)
5
4
1
0
13
1
+12
13
2.60
4
1
Home, last 10 (10)
10
9
1
0
28
1
+27
28
2.80
9
1
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 4 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)7 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 17 scored, 10 conceded · 2.30 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 5 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (9)5 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 14 scored, 11 conceded · 1.89 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Akademiya Ontustik
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
4
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
League position
1st
4th
Points per game
2.70
1.87
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)
2.80
1.70
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)
0.30
1.00
Clean sheets
7
3
Schedule and rest
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Shakhter Karagandy: 20 days since their last match (17 Sept 2026).
Akademiya Ontustik: 20 days since their last match (17 Sept 2026).
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Shakhter Karagandy
None reported.
Akademiya Ontustik
None reported.
Arys
24 points from 23 games · goal difference -14
12thAktobe Jas23 points from 23 games · goal difference -31
13thTobol 216 points from 23 games · goal difference -17
14thYelimay Semey 212 points from 23 games · goal difference -30