Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.18
Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13
· USA - USL League One
See the matchLoading picks…
Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.18
· USA - USL League One
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
17 of 22 picks won among these
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.28
· Nicaragua - Primera Division
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · No price
· Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Price when published 1.16
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· World - Friendlies Women
See the matchAral win
Result pending
83%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Price when published 1.07
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Armenia - First League
See the matchElfsborg W win
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the matchBrommapojkarna W win
Won
87%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.21
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchAtlético Mineiro U20 win
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchGrêmio U20 win
Lost
84%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 59%
Price when published 1.51
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCruzeiro U20 win
Lost
84%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCSA U20 win
Lost
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchBelgrano Córdoba Res. win
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.24
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.25
· Peru - Primera División
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.18
· Lebanon - Premier League
See the matchFlamengo U20 win
Lost
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchSão Paulo U20 win
Won
90%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Georgia - Liga 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the matchOver 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Norway - Nasjonal U19 Champions League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kuwait - Division 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.20
· Finland - Veikkausliiga
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 73%
Price when published 1.22
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.21
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
· Romania - Liga I
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.19
· Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 77%
Price when published 1.20
· Ireland - Premier Division
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.30
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 72%
Price when published 1.29
· Colombia - Primera B
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
· Brazil - Serie A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Primera Division
See the match· Nicaragua - Primera Division
Final score UNAN Managua 1, Real Estelí 0.The pick lost.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.28
Each of Real Estelí's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.
Chances of each result: UNAN Managua win 10%, Draw 23%, Real Estelí win 68%.
UNAN Managua host Real Estelí in the Primera Division, Nicaragua.
Our model gives a 78% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 71%.
The model expects UNAN Managua to score 0.8 goals and Real Estelí 2.0.
3 of UNAN Managua's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Real Estelí's last 6 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Thu 8 Oct, 00:22 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave UNAN Managua 11% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera Division, before kick-off.
UNAN Managua sit 4th with 17 points; Real Estelí sit 3rd with 18. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Real Estelí.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Diriangén | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 24 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 5 | San Marcos | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 11 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: September 2016 to July 2026.
Average goals 2.7 (UNAN Managua 0.6, Real Estelí 2.1). Draws 30%, both teams scored 43%, over 2.5 goals 49%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then UNAN Managua at home and Real Estelí away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 | 2.00 | 3 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 | 1.20 | 1 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | UNAN Managua | Real Estelí |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 1.89 | 2.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Managua | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 10 | +23 | 26 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 24 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 5 | San Marcos | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 |
| 7 | Matagalpa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 9 |
| 8 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 5 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 5 |
| +4 |
| 8 |
| 1.60 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 17 | 1.70 | 3 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 | 1.78 | 5 | 2 |
|---|