Appearance

Auto follows your device. Saved on this device.

Thu 16:30 EDT · Colombia - Primera B

Depor FC v Real Cartagena

Final score Depor FC 2, Real Cartagena 2.The pick won.

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

75%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 72%

Price when published 1.29

Each of Depor FC's last 9 home matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Depor FC vs Real Cartagena prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

More filters

Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.

Depor FC win: 15% · price 5.15
Draw: 23% · price 3.72
Real Cartagena win: 62% · price 1.59
Over 1.5 goals: 75% · price 1.29
Over 2.5 goals: 51% · price 1.91
Both teams score: 51% · price 1.90
Expected goals (our model): Depor FC 0.9, Real Cartagena 1.7

These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Depor FC 15% to win.

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Depor FC sit 14th with 23 points; Real Cartagena sit 4th with 55 points.
Depor FC have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Real Cartagena 5 from 5.
At home, Depor FC have taken 4 points from their last 5; away, Real Cartagena have taken 8 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 22 meetings Depor FC won 4, Real Cartagena won 15 and 3 were drawn.
Depor FC have had 6 days since their last match; Real Cartagena 4.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Primera B, Primera B: Tabla Anual, before kick-off.

Depor FC sit 14th with 23 points; Real Cartagena sit 4th with 55. A gap of 29 in goal difference, in favour of Real Cartagena; Depor FC have played 8 fewer.

3rd Envigado56 points from 34 games · goal difference +15
4th Real Cartagena55 points from 34 games · goal difference +14
5th Union Magdalena52 points from 31 games · goal difference +14
13th Orsomarso27 points from 26 games · goal difference -8
14th Depor FC23 points from 26 games · goal difference -15
15th Real Santander19 points from 26 games · goal difference -19

#	Team	P

Depor FC: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Real Cundinamarca2 Oct 2026 · Primera B · Home1–2

at Envigado27 Sept 2026 · Primera B · Away0–3

v Tigres FC22 Sept 2026 · Primera B · Home0–3

at Orsomarso14 Sept 2026 · Primera B · Away2–0

Real Cartagena: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Popayan4 Oct 2026 · Primera B · Home2–3

at Union Magdalena29 Sept 2026 · Primera B · Away1–1

v Envigado22 Sept 2026 · Primera B · Home0–0

at Internacional Palmira12 Sept 2026 · Primera B · Away1–2

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Meetings: 22
Depor FC wins: 4
Draws: 3
Real Cartagena wins: 15

Record shown: May 2016 to February 2026.

Average goals 2.6 (Depor FC 0.8, Real Cartagena 1.8). Draws 14%, both teams scored 50%, over 2.5 goals 55%.

13 Feb 2026 · Primera BReal Cartagena4–1Depor FC

5 Oct 2025 · Primera BReal Cartagena4–0Depor FC

25 Apr 2025 · Primera BDepor FC1–2Real Cartagena

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Depor FC at home and Real Cartagena away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Depor FC

Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)4 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost · 13 scored, 15 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Home, last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 10 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Home, last 10 (10)1 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost · 10 scored, 25 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2

Depor FC
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Depor FC	Real Cartagena
League position	14th	4th
Points per game	0.88	1.62
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.30	1.40
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	1.50	1.30
Clean sheets	3	3

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Depor FC: 6 days since their last match (2 Oct 2026).
Real Cartagena: 4 days since their last match (4 Oct 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Depor FC

None reported.

Real Cartagena

None reported.

Counter-signals

Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.

Evidence pointing the other way.

Depor FC have the better recent form: 6 points from 5 against 5 from 5.

Show full table

1st Internacional Palmira59 points from 32 games · goal difference +12
2nd Quindio57 points from 32 games · goal difference +12
3rd Envigado56 points from 34 games · goal difference +15
4th Real Cartagena55 points from 34 games · goal difference +14
5th Union Magdalena52 points from 31 games · goal difference +14
6th Tigres FC45 points from 32 games · goal difference +6
7th Ind. Yumbo42 points from 26 games · goal difference +8
8th Bogota FC38 points from 32 games · goal difference -7
9th Real Cundinamarca36 points from 26 games · goal difference +4
10th Patriotas34 points from 26 games · goal difference -4
11th Barranquilla34 points from 31 games · goal difference -6
12th Popayan30 points from 25 games · goal difference -1
13th Orsomarso27 points from 26 games · goal difference -8
14th Depor FC23 points from 26 games · goal difference -15
15th Real Santander19 points from 26 games · goal difference -19
16th Leones FC19 points from 25 games · goal difference -25

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Internacional Palmira	32	17	8	7	40	28	+12	59
2	Quindio	32	16	9	7	33	21	+12	57
3	Envigado	34	15	11	8	46	31	+15	56
4	Real Cartagena

Last 5 (5)	5	2	0	3	4	8	-4	6	1.20	2	2
Last 10 (10)	10	4	2	4	13	15	-2	14	1.40	3	3
Home, last 5 (5)	5	1	1	3	5	10	-5	4	0.80	0	2
Home, last 10 (10)	10	1	3	6	10	25	-15	6	0.60	0	2

Real Cartagena

Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 6 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost · 14 scored, 13 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 10 scored, 5 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Away, last 10 (9)3 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost · 14 scored, 12 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1

Real Cartagena
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5	1.00	2	1
Last 10 (10)	10	3	3	4	14	13	+1	12	1.20	3	3
Away, last 5 (5)	5	2	2	1	10	5	+5	8	1.60	1	0
Away, last 10 (9)	9	3	3	3	14	12	+2	12	1.33	1	1

Depor FC v Real Cartagena

Our model's chances

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Depor FC v Real Cartagena

Our model's chances

Why this pick

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Depor FC: recent fixtures

Real Cartagena: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Depor FC

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Depor FC

Real Cartagena

Counter-signals

Real Cartagena

3	Envigado	34	15	11	8	46	31	+15	56
4	Real Cartagena	34	15	10	9	53	39	+14	55
5	Union Magdalena	31	15	7	9	44	30	+14	52
13	Orsomarso	26	6	9	11	20	28	-8	27
14	Depor FC	26	5	8	13	25	40	-15	23
15	Real Santander	26	3	10	13	22	41	-19	19

Depor FC v Real CartagenaDepor FCHomevReal CartagenaAwayDepor FCHomevReal CartagenaAway

Our model's chances

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Depor FC v Real CartagenaDepor FCHomevReal CartagenaAwayDepor FCHomevReal CartagenaAway

Our model's chances

Why this pick

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Depor FC: recent fixtures

Real Cartagena: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Depor FC

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Depor FC

Real Cartagena

Counter-signals

Real Cartagena

Depor FC v Real Cartagena

Depor FC v Real Cartagena