Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.18
Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13
· USA - USL League One
See the matchLoading picks…
Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.18
· USA - USL League One
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
17 of 22 picks won among these
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.28
· Nicaragua - Primera Division
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · No price
· Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Price when published 1.16
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· World - Friendlies Women
See the matchAral win
Result pending
83%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Price when published 1.07
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Armenia - First League
See the matchElfsborg W win
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the matchBrommapojkarna W win
Won
87%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.21
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchAtlético Mineiro U20 win
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchGrêmio U20 win
Lost
84%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 59%
Price when published 1.51
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCruzeiro U20 win
Lost
84%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCSA U20 win
Lost
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchBelgrano Córdoba Res. win
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.24
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.25
· Peru - Primera División
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.18
· Lebanon - Premier League
See the matchFlamengo U20 win
Lost
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchSão Paulo U20 win
Won
90%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Georgia - Liga 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the matchOver 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Norway - Nasjonal U19 Champions League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kuwait - Division 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.20
· Finland - Veikkausliiga
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 73%
Price when published 1.22
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.21
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
· Romania - Liga I
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.19
· Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 77%
Price when published 1.20
· Ireland - Premier Division
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.30
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 72%
Price when published 1.29
· Colombia - Primera B
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
· Brazil - Serie A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Primera Division
See the match· Brazil - Serie A
Final score Santos 2, Flamengo 2.The pick won.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
Each of Santos's last 8 home matches had two or more goals.
Chances of each result: Santos win 18%, Draw 22%, Flamengo win 59%.
Santos host Flamengo in the Serie A, Brazil.
Our model gives a 77% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 76%.
The model expects Santos to score 1.0 goals and Flamengo 1.8.
5 of Santos's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 5 of Flamengo's last 6 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Thu 8 Oct, 00:22 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:22 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Santos 17% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Serie A, before kick-off.
Santos sit 8th with 41 points; Flamengo sit 1st with 60. A gap of 30 in goal difference, in favour of Flamengo.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 43 |
| 8 | Santos | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 41 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: September 2010 to April 2026.
Average goals 2.7 (Santos 1.2, Flamengo 1.5). Draws 25%, both teams scored 47%, over 2.5 goals 47%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Santos at home and Flamengo away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 | 2.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 20 | 2.00 | 3 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 11 | 2.20 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (9) | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 16 | 1.78 | 3 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Santos | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 1st |
| Points per game | 1.46 | 2.14 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 2.10 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 43 |
| 8 | Santos | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 41 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 36 |
| 11 | RB Bragantino | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco DA Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 8 |
| 3 |
| +5 |
| 13 |
| 2.60 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 25 | 2.50 | 4 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (8) | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 17 | 2.13 | 3 | 0 |
|---|