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Thu 10:45 EDT · Qatar - Stars League

Al Shamal v Al-Duhail SC

Final score Al Shamal 0, Al-Duhail SC 4.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

What the data says

Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

More filters

Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.

Al Shamal win: 33% · price 3.22
Draw: 23% · price 3.54
Al-Duhail SC win: 45% · price 1.98
Over 1.5 goals: 82% · price 1.19
Over 2.5 goals: 59% · price 1.64
Both teams score: 59% · price 1.55
Expected goals (our model): Al Shamal 1.5, Al-Duhail SC 1.6

These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Al Shamal 35% to win.

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Al Shamal sit 3rd with 8 points; Al-Duhail SC sit 5th with 6 points.
Al Shamal have taken 11 points from their last 5 matches; Al-Duhail SC 9 from 5.
At home, Al Shamal have taken 9 points from their last 5; away, Al-Duhail SC have taken 8 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 16 meetings Al Shamal won 1, Al-Duhail SC won 15 and 0 were drawn.
Al Shamal have had 7 days since their last match; Al-Duhail SC 10.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Stars League, before kick-off.

Al Shamal sit 3rd with 8 points; Al-Duhail SC sit 5th with 6. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Al Shamal.

2nd Al-Rayyan SC10 points from 4 games · goal difference +5
3rd Al Shamal8 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
4th Al-Arabi SC6 points from 4 games · goal difference +2
5th Al-Duhail SC6 points from 4 games · goal difference +2
6th Lusail City5 points from 4 games · goal difference +3

#	Team	P	W	D	L

Al Shamal: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Muaither SC1 Oct 2026 · QSL Cup · Home2–1

at Al Bidda SC22 Sept 2026 · QSL Cup · Away4–0

v Al-Ittihad FC14 Sept 2026 · AFC Champions League Elite · Home1–1

v Al Wakrah10 Sept 2026 · Stars League · Home1–1

Al-Duhail SC: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Al Shahaniya28 Sept 2026 · QSL Cup · Away3–1

v Al-Arabi SC21 Sept 2026 · QSL Cup · Home2–0

v Al Shahaniya12 Sept 2026 · Stars League · Home1–1

at Al-Rayyan SC5 Sept 2026 · Stars League · Away1–1

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Meetings: 16
Al Shamal wins: 1
Draws: 0
Al-Duhail SC wins: 15

Record shown: September 2014 to March 2026.

Average goals 3.6 (Al Shamal 1.0, Al-Duhail SC 2.6). Draws 0%, both teams scored 56%, over 2.5 goals 63%.

17 Mar 2026 · Stars LeagueAl Shamal1–3Al-Duhail SC

25 Oct 2025 · Stars LeagueAl-Duhail SC2–0Al Shamal

5 Apr 2025 · Stars LeagueAl-Duhail SC0–4Al Shamal

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Al Shamal at home and Al-Duhail SC away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Al Shamal

Last 5 (5)3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 12 scored, 5 conceded · 2.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)4 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost · 26 scored, 20 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Home, last 5 (5)2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 11 scored, 8 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (10)4 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost · 21 scored, 22 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1

Al Shamal
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Al Shamal	Al-Duhail SC
League position	3rd	5th
Points per game	2.00	1.50
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	2.60	1.70
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	2.00	0.90
Clean sheets	1	4

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Al Shamal: 7 days since their last match (1 Oct 2026).
Al-Duhail SC: 10 days since their last match (28 Sept 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Al Shamal

None reported.

Al-Duhail SC

None reported.

Counter-signals

Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.

Evidence pointing the other way.

Al-Duhail SC sit below Al Shamal in the table (5th against 3rd).
Al Shamal have the better recent form: 11 points from 5 against 9 from 5.

Show full table

1st Al Sadd12 points from 4 games · goal difference +12
2nd Al-Rayyan SC10 points from 4 games · goal difference +5
3rd Al Shamal8 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
4th Al-Arabi SC6 points from 4 games · goal difference +2
5th Al-Duhail SC6 points from 4 games · goal difference +2
6th Lusail City5 points from 4 games · goal difference +3
7th Al Shahaniya4 points from 4 games · goal difference -2
8th Al Ahli Doha4 points from 4 games · goal difference -4
9th Al-Gharafa4 points from 4 games · goal difference -4
10th Qatar SC2 points from 4 games · goal difference -5
11th Al Wakrah2 points from 4 games · goal difference -5
12th Al-Sailiya0 points from 4 games · goal difference -8

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Al Sadd	4	4	0	0	19	7	+12	12
2	Al-Rayyan SC	4	3	1	0	7	2	+5	10
3	Al Shamal	4	2	2	0	10	6	+4	8
4	Al-Arabi SC	4

Last 5 (5)	5	3	2	0	12	5	+7	11	2.20	1	0
Last 10 (10)	10	4	4	2	26	20	+6	16	1.60	1	0
Home, last 5 (5)	5	2	3	0	11	8	+3	9	1.80	0	0
Home, last 10 (10)	10	4	3	3	21	22	-1	15	1.50	0	1

Al-Duhail SC

Last 5 (5)2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 4 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)5 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost · 17 scored, 9 conceded · 1.90 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 5 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (8)4 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 16 scored, 9 conceded · 1.75 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1

Al-Duhail SC
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	2	3	0	8	4	+4	9	1.80	1	0
Last 10 (10)	10	5	4	1	17	9	+8	19	1.90	4	1
Away, last 5 (5)	5	2	2	1	7	5	+2	8	1.60	1	1
Away, last 10 (8)	8	4	2	2	16	9	+7	14	1.75	2	1

Al Shamal v Al-Duhail SCAl ShamalHomevAl-Duhail SCAwayAl ShamalHomevAl-Duhail SCAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Al Shamal v Al-Duhail SCAl ShamalHomevAl-Duhail SCAwayAl ShamalHomevAl-Duhail SCAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Al Shamal: recent fixtures

Al-Duhail SC: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Al Shamal

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Al Shamal

Al-Duhail SC

Counter-signals

Al-Duhail SC

Al Shamal v Al-Duhail SC

Al Shamal v Al-Duhail SC