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Thu 13:00 EDT · Qatar - Stars League

Al Wakrah v Al-Gharafa

Final score Al Wakrah 3, Al-Gharafa 2.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

More filters

Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.

Al Wakrah win: 42%
Draw: 25%
Al-Gharafa win: 33%
Over 1.5 goals: 82%
Over 2.5 goals: 60%
Both teams score: 61%
Expected goals (our model): Al Wakrah 1.8, Al-Gharafa 1.5

These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Al Wakrah 44% to win.

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Al Wakrah sit 11th with 2 points; Al-Gharafa sit 9th with 4 points.
Al Wakrah have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Al-Gharafa 4 from 5.
At home, Al Wakrah have taken 8 points from their last 5; away, Al-Gharafa have taken 1 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 31 meetings Al Wakrah won 11, Al-Gharafa won 13 and 7 were drawn.
Al Wakrah have had 10 days since their last match; Al-Gharafa 7.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Stars League, before kick-off.

Al Wakrah sit 11th with 2 points; Al-Gharafa sit 9th with 4. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Al-Gharafa.

8th Al Ahli Doha4 points from 4 games · goal difference -4
9th Al-Gharafa4 points from 4 games · goal difference -4
10th Qatar SC2 points from 4 games · goal difference -5
11th Al Wakrah2 points from 4 games · goal difference -5
12th Al-Sailiya0 points from 4 games · goal difference -8

#	Team	P	W	D	L

Al Wakrah: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Al Kharaitiyat28 Sept 2026 · QSL Cup · Away1–1

v Al-Sailiya20 Sept 2026 · QSL Cup · Home1–0

at Al Shamal10 Sept 2026 · Stars League · Away1–1

at Lusail City4 Sept 2026 · Stars League · Away0–4

Al-Gharafa: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Al Mesaimeer1 Oct 2026 · QSL Cup · Home4–2

at Al-Hilal Saudi FC15 Sept 2026 · AFC Champions League Elite · Away1–2

v Lusail City11 Sept 2026 · Stars League · Home0–0

at Al Sadd5 Sept 2026 · Stars League · Away1–4

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Meetings: 31
Al Wakrah wins: 11
Draws: 7
Al-Gharafa wins: 13

Record shown: October 2011 to May 2026.

Average goals 3.3 (Al Wakrah 1.6, Al-Gharafa 1.7). Draws 23%, both teams scored 65%, over 2.5 goals 61%.

5 May 2026 · Emir CupAl Wakrah0–0Al-Gharafa

8 Apr 2026 · Stars LeagueAl Wakrah3–3Al-Gharafa

13 Dec 2025 · QSL CupAl Wakrah2–3Al-Gharafa

21 Nov 2025 · Stars League

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Al Wakrah at home and Al-Gharafa away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Al Wakrah

Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)2 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost · 10 scored, 20 conceded · 0.90 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Home, last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 5 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (9)3 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost · 13 scored, 12 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2

Al Wakrah
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Al Wakrah	Al-Gharafa
League position	11th	9th
Points per game	0.50	1.00
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.00	1.70
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	2.00	1.90
Clean sheets	2	1

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Al Wakrah: 10 days since their last match (28 Sept 2026).
Al-Gharafa: 7 days since their last match (1 Oct 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Al Wakrah

None reported.

Al-Gharafa

None reported.

Counter-signals

Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.

Evidence pointing the other way.

Al Wakrah sit below Al-Gharafa in the table (11th against 9th).
Head-to-head context: Al-Gharafa have won more of the last 31 meetings (13 to 11).

Show full table

1st Al Sadd12 points from 4 games · goal difference +12
2nd Al-Rayyan SC10 points from 4 games · goal difference +5
3rd Al Shamal8 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
4th Al-Arabi SC6 points from 4 games · goal difference +2
5th Al-Duhail SC6 points from 4 games · goal difference +2
6th Lusail City5 points from 4 games · goal difference +3
7th Al Shahaniya4 points from 4 games · goal difference -2
8th Al Ahli Doha4 points from 4 games · goal difference -4
9th Al-Gharafa4 points from 4 games · goal difference -4
10th Qatar SC2 points from 4 games · goal difference -5
11th Al Wakrah2 points from 4 games · goal difference -5
12th Al-Sailiya0 points from 4 games · goal difference -8

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Al Sadd	4	4	0	0	19	7	+12	12
2	Al-Rayyan SC	4	3	1	0	7	2	+5	10
3	Al Shamal	4	2	2	0	10	6	+4	8
4	Al-Arabi SC	4	1

Last 5 (5)	5	1	2	2	4	8	-4	5	1.00	1	1
Last 10 (10)	10	2	3	5	10	20	-10	9	0.90	2	2
Home, last 5 (5)	5	2	2	1	7	5	+2	8	1.60	2	1
Home, last 10 (9)	9	3	3	3	13	12	+1	12	1.33	3	2

Al-Gharafa

Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 10 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost · 17 scored, 19 conceded · 1.10 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Away, last 5 (5)0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 6 scored, 12 conceded · 0.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Away, last 10 (9)0 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost · 11 scored, 20 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2

Al-Gharafa
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	1	1	3	7	10	-3	4	0.80	1	1
Last 10 (10)	10	3	2	5	17	19	-2	11	1.10	1	1
Away, last 5 (5)	5	0	1	4	6	12	-6	1	0.20	0	0
Away, last 10 (9)	9	0	3	6	11	20	-9	3	0.33	1	2

8	Al Ahli Doha	4	1	1	2	5	9	-4	4
9	Al-Gharafa	4	1	1	2	4	8	-4	4
10	Qatar SC	4	0	2	2	4	9	-5	2
11	Al Wakrah	4	0	2	2	4	9	-5	2
12	Al-Sailiya	4	0	0	4	5	13	-8	0

Al Wakrah v Al-GharafaAl WakrahHomevAl-GharafaAwayAl WakrahHomevAl-GharafaAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Al Wakrah v Al-GharafaAl WakrahHomevAl-GharafaAwayAl WakrahHomevAl-GharafaAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Al Wakrah: recent fixtures

Al-Gharafa: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Al Wakrah

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Al Wakrah

Al-Gharafa

Counter-signals

Al-Gharafa

Al Wakrah v Al-Gharafa

Al Wakrah v Al-Gharafa