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America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis
Back to today's picks
Wed 19:30 EDT · Brazil - Serie B
America Mineiro v Fortaleza EC Home v Away Home v Away Final score America Mineiro 0, Fortaleza EC 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances Chances of each result: America Mineiro win 31%, Draw 30%, Fortaleza EC win 39%.
America Mineiro host Fortaleza EC in the Serie B, Brazil.
Our model gives America Mineiro a 31% chance of winning, a draw 30% and Fortaleza EC 39%.
The model expects America Mineiro to score 1.0 goals and Fortaleza EC 1.1.
America Mineiro have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Fortaleza EC have won 3 of 6.
Top factors America Mineiro sit 19th with 17 points; Fortaleza EC sit 5th with 53 points. America Mineiro have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches; Fortaleza EC 9 from 5. At home, America Mineiro have taken 6 points from their last 5; away, Fortaleza EC have taken 11 from their last 5. Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more. Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Picks for Thursday 8 October Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.18
CCH Corpus Christi FWA Fort Wayne 1 3
Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
Other picks (22) Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
17 of 22 picks won among these
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.28
UMA UNAN Managua RES Real Estelí 1 0
Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division
See the match Sweden, Division 2 - Norra Götaland (1)
Sweden, Svenska Cupen - Women (2)
USA, USL League One (1)
Uzbekistan, Pro League A (4)
World, Friendlies Women (1)
Market
All markets Home win (8) Away win (2) Over 1.5 goals (31) Over 2.5 goals (1)
win chance when published
SKA Shakhter Karagandy AON Akademiya Ontustik 2 0
06:00 EDT · Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Price when published 1.16
RFA Respublika FA YAY Yaypan 2 1
06:30 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
KAT Kattaqurgon MET Metalourg
07:00 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
IWX India W RWX Russia W 0 4
08:00 EDT · World - Friendlies Women
See the match win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Price when published 1.07
ARA Aral QIZ Qiziriq
09:00 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
HAY Hayq PYU Pyunik II
09:00 EDT · Armenia - First League
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
AWX Alingsås W EWX Elfsborg W 0 3
12:30 EDT · Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
EWX Enskede W BWX Brommapojkarna W 1 2
13:00 EDT · Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.21
TIR Tira INE Ironi Nesher 2 1
13:00 EDT · Israel - Liga Alef
See the match Atlético Mineiro U20 win
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
AMI Atlético Mineiro U20 MGX Athletic Club MG U20 2 1
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 59%
Price when published 1.51
GRE Grêmio U20 OPR Operário PR U20 1 3
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
CRU Cruzeiro U20 GOI Goiás U20 1 2
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
CSA CSA U20 SCR Santa Cruz AC U20 0 0
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match Belgrano Córdoba Res. win
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
BCO Belgrano Córdoba Res. SMS San Martín San Juan Res. 3 2
14:00 EDT · Argentina - Reserve League
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.24
TXA Txantrea COR Cortes 0 0
14:00 EDT · Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.25
UMO UCV Moquegua CIE Cienciano 0 2
14:00 EDT · Peru - Primera División
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.18
AAN Al Ansar AHI Al Hikma 2 1
14:45 EDT · Lebanon - Premier League
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
FLA Flamengo U20 VGA Vasco da Gama U20 2 2
15:30 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
SPA São Paulo U20 APR Athletico PR U20 3 1
16:30 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
YSE Yelimay Semey 2 ARY Arys 2 3
06:00 EDT · Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
WGE WIT Georgia GON Gonio 2 0
07:00 EDT · Georgia - Liga 3
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
SBA Səbail KAR Karvan 1 1
07:30 EDT · Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
OZG Ozgon DBI Dordoi Bishkek 3 2
09:00 EDT · Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
ALG Alga ASI Asiagoal 3 2
09:00 EDT · Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the match Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
ROS Rosenborg U19 LMX Lillestrøm U19 2 1
09:00 EDT · Norway - Nasjonal U19 Champions League
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
GAZ Gazalkent PAK Pakhtakor II 3 2
09:00 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · No price
BUR Burgan AJA Al Jazira 0 1
10:50 EDT · Kuwait - Division 1
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.20
HHE HJK Helsinki VPS VPS 6 0
11:00 EDT · Finland - Veikkausliiga
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 73%
Price when published 1.22
HIK Hapoel Ironi Karmiel HTH Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 1 0
11:00 EDT · Israel - Liga Alef
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.21
HYE Holon Yermiyahu NJE Nordia Jerusalem 5 0
12:40 EDT · Israel - Liga Alef
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
CCL CFR 1907 Cluj UCL Universitatea Cluj 1 3
13:30 EDT · Romania - Liga I
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.19
VAN Vänersborgs FK KUM Kumla 3 3
13:30 EDT · Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
REB River Ebro PRA Pradejón 1 2
14:00 EDT · Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
PIC Picuiense SPB Sport PB 1 3
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 77%
Price when published 1.20
SRO Shamrock Rovers DRO Drogheda United 3 1
15:00 EDT · Ireland - Premier Division
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.30
BTH Bentín Tacna Heroica CAM Carlos A. Mannucci 0 0
16:00 EDT · Peru - Segunda División
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 72%
Price when published 1.29
DEP Depor FC RCA Real Cartagena 2 2
16:30 EDT · Colombia - Primera B
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
SAN Santos FLA Flamengo 2 2
18:30 EDT · Brazil - Serie A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · No price
GUA Guarabira AES Auto Esporte 0 1
18:30 EDT · Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
FAS FAS ALI Alianza 2 1
18:30 EDT · El Salvador - Primera Division
See the match
Expected goals (our model) America Mineiro 1.0, Fortaleza EC 1.1 These chances include head-to-head context at 7% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave America Mineiro 30% to win.
Context only Facts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
America Mineiro sit 19th with 17 points; Fortaleza EC sit 5th with 53 points. America Mineiro have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches; Fortaleza EC 9 from 5. At home, America Mineiro have taken 6 points from their last 5; away, Fortaleza EC have taken 11 from their last 5. Head-to-head context: in their last 11 meetings America Mineiro won 4, Fortaleza EC won 7 and 0 were drawn. Context only Table position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Serie B, before kick-off.
America Mineiro sit 19th with 17 points; Fortaleza EC sit 5th with 53. A gap of 40 in goal difference, in favour of Fortaleza EC.
4th Criciuma 53 points from 31 games · goal difference +6 5th Fortaleza EC 53 points from 31 games · goal difference +9 6th Atletico Goianiense 52 points from 31 games · goal difference +12 18th Londrina 28 points from 31 games · goal difference -6 19th America Mineiro 17 points from 31 games · goal difference -31 20th Ponte Preta 13 points from 32 games · goal difference -51 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 33 27 +6 53 5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 36 27 +9 53 6 Atletico Goianiense 31 14 10 7 39 27 +12 52 18 Londrina 31 7 7 17 39 45 -6 28 19 America Mineiro 31 4 5 22 21 52 -31 17 20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 17 68
Show full table Show less 1st Juventude 59 points from 32 games · goal difference +18 2nd Vila Nova 57 points from 31 games · goal difference +13 3rd Novorizontino 54 points from 31 games · goal difference +25 4th Criciuma 53 points from 31 games · goal difference +6 5th Fortaleza EC 53 points from 31 games · goal difference +9 6th Atletico Goianiense 52 points from 31 games · goal difference +12 7th Sport Recife 50 points from 32 games · goal difference +10 8th CRB 48 points from 31 games · goal difference +2 9th Operario-PR 48 points from 31 games · goal difference +2 10th Cuiaba 46 points from 31 games · goal difference +7 11th Goias Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
L Lost at Atletico Goianiense 3 Oct 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–2
L Lost v Juventude 28 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 0–1
L Lost at Vila Nova 18 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–1
L Lost v São Bernardo 14 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 0–2
W Won v Nautico Recife 9 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–1
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 L Lost at CRB 5 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–3
W Won v Ponte Preta 30 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–0
L Lost at Sport Recife 24 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–3
L Lost at Novorizontino 20 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–3
L Lost v Athletic Club 16 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–3
Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
D Drew v Nautico Recife 3 Oct 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–1
D Drew v Athletic Club 27 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–2
W Won at Londrina 20 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 2–1
D Drew v Ceara 13 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–1
W Won v Avai 9 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 W Won at Goias 5 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–0
D Drew v Operario-PR 31 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–1
W Won at Criciuma 23 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 2–0
D Drew v São Bernardo 19 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–1
D Drew at Juventude 15 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–0
Partly in the model The model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings 11
America Mineiro wins 4
Draws 0
Fortaleza EC wins 7 Record shown: July 2016 to June 2026.
Average goals 3.2 (America Mineiro 1.3, Fortaleza EC 1.9). Draws 0%, both teams scored 64%, over 2.5 goals 82%.
16 Jun 2026 · Serie B Fortaleza EC 0–3 America Mineiro
8 Oct 2023 · Serie A Fortaleza EC 3–2 America Mineiro
31 Aug 2023 · CONMEBOL Sudamericana Fortaleza EC 2–1 America Mineiro
24 Aug 2023 · CONMEBOL Sudamericana America Mineiro 1–3 Fortaleza EC
20 May 2023 · Serie A America Mineiro 2–1 Fortaleza EC
Show last 10 meetings Showing 10 15 Oct 2022 · Serie A America Mineiro 1–2 Fortaleza EC
19 Jun 2022 · Serie A Fortaleza EC 1–0 America Mineiro
31 Oct 2021 · Serie A America Mineiro 2–1 Fortaleza EC
7 Jul 2021 · Serie A Fortaleza EC 4–0 America Mineiro
29 Jul 2016 · Copa Do Brasil Fortaleza EC 4–1 America Mineiro
Show last 11 meetings Showing 11 8 Jul 2016 · Copa Do Brasil America Mineiro 1–0 Fortaleza EC
In the model The model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then America Mineiro at home and Fortaleza EC away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
America Mineiro Last 5 (5) 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 2 scored, 7 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 4 Last 10 (10) 2 won, 0 drawn, 8 lost · 6 scored, 19 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 6 Home, last 5 (5) 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2 Home, last 10 (10) 3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost · 9 scored, 12 conceded · 1.10 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3 America Mineiro Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 1 0 4 2 7 -5 3 0.60 0 4 Last 10 (10) 10 2 0 8 6 19 -13 6 0.60 1 6 Home, last 5 (5) 5 2 0 3 5 7 -2 6 1.20 1 2 Home, last 10 (10) 10 3 2 5 9 12 -3 11 1.10 2 3
Fortaleza EC Last 5 (5) 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 5 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0 Last 10 (10) 4 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost · 12 scored, 7 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Away, last 5 (5) 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 2 conceded · 2.20 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Away, last 10 (9) 3 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost · 8 scored, 9 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3 Fortaleza EC Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 2
Context only Shown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure America Mineiro Fortaleza EC League position 19th 5th Points per game 0.55 1.71 Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) 0.60 1.20 Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) 1.90 0.70 Clean sheets 1 4
Context only Rest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
America Mineiro: 4 days since their last match (3 Oct 2026). Fortaleza EC: 4 days since their last match (3 Oct 2026). In the model Missing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
America Mineiro None reported.
Fortaleza EC None reported.
45 points from 32 games · goal difference -8
12th São Bernardo 45 points from 32 games · goal difference +10
13th Nautico Recife 42 points from 31 games · goal difference +1
14th Athletic Club 42 points from 32 games · goal difference +1
15th Ceara 39 points from 31 games · goal difference -5
16th Botafogo SP 35 points from 31 games · goal difference -3
17th Avai 30 points from 31 games · goal difference -12
18th Londrina 28 points from 31 games · goal difference -6
19th America Mineiro 17 points from 31 games · goal difference -31
20th Ponte Preta 13 points from 32 games · goal difference -51 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 37 19 +18 59 2 Vila Nova 31 17 6 8 44 31 +13 57 3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 52 27 +25 54 4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 33 27 +6 53 5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 36 27 +9 53 6 Atletico Goianiense 31 14 10 7 39 27 +12 52 7 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 44 34 +10 50 8 CRB 31 14 6 11 46 44 +2 48 9 Operario-PR 31 13 9 9 43 41 +2 48 10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 32 25 +7 46 11 Goias 32 13 6 13 32 40 -8 45 12 São Bernardo 32 12 9 11 44 34 +10 45 13 Nautico Recife 31 11 9 11 39 38 +1 42 14 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 38 37 +1 42 15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 34 39 -5 39 16 Botafogo SP 31 9 8 14 34 37 -3 35 17 Avai 31 8 6 17 30 42 -12 30 18 Londrina 31 7 7 17 39 45 -6 28 19 America Mineiro 31 4 5 22 21 52 -31 17 20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 17 68 -51 13
Show last 20 matches Showing 20
L Lost at Botafogo SP 8 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–2
W Won v Goias 26 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
L Lost at Avai 21 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–2
D Drew v Ceara 17 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–1
D Drew v Londrina 13 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–1
L Lost at Cuiaba 2 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–1
L Lost at Operario-PR 27 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–1
L Lost v Criciuma 23 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Home 0–1
W Won at Fortaleza EC 16 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Away 3–0
L Lost v Atletico Goianiense 8 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–2
Show last 20 matches Showing 20
D Drew at Cuiaba 9 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–1
W Won v Palmeiras 6 Aug 2026 · Copa Do Brasil · Home 3–2
L Lost at Palmeiras 2 Aug 2026 · Copa Do Brasil · Away 0–3
W Won v Botafogo SP 29 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
L Lost at Vila Nova 22 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–2
W Won v Novorizontino 18 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
L Lost at Atletico Goianiense 12 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–1
W Won v Ponte Preta 3 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–0
W Won v Sport Recife 28 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–1
D Drew at CRB 21 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–1
Last 10 (10) 10 4 6 0 12 7 +5 18 1.80 4 1
Away, last 5 (5) 5 3 2 0 6 2 +4 11 2.20 3 1
Away, last 10 (9) 9 3 3 3 8 9 -1 12 1.33 3 3