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Boca Juniors Res. vs Colón Res. prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis
Back to today's picks
Thu 18:00 EDT · Argentina - Reserve League
Boca Juniors Res. v Colón Res. Home v Away Home v Away Final score Boca Juniors Res. 1, Colón Res. 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances Chances of each result: Boca Juniors Res. win 74%, Draw 20%, Colón Res. win 6%.
Boca Juniors Res. host Colón Res. in the Reserve League, Argentina.
Our model gives Boca Juniors Res. a 74% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Colón Res. 6%.
The model expects Boca Juniors Res. to score 1.8 goals and Colón Res. 0.4.
Boca Juniors Res. have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Colón Res. have won 1 of 6.
Top factors Boca Juniors Res. sit 2nd with 39 points; Colón Res. sit 28th with 18 points. Boca Juniors Res. have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Colón Res. 3 from 5. At home, Boca Juniors Res. have taken 10 points from their last 5; away, Colón Res. have taken 4 from their last 5. Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:21 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more. Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model) Boca Juniors Res. 1.8, Colón Res. 0.4 These chances include head-to-head context at 5% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Boca Juniors Res. 74% to win.
Context only Facts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Boca Juniors Res. sit 2nd with 39 points; Colón Res. sit 28th with 18 points. Boca Juniors Res. have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Colón Res. 3 from 5. At home, Boca Juniors Res. have taken 10 points from their last 5; away, Colón Res. have taken 4 from their last 5. Head-to-head context: in their last 5 meetings Boca Juniors Res. won 3, Colón Res. won 1 and 1 was drawn. Context only Table position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Reserve League, Apertura, before kick-off.
Boca Juniors Res. sit 2nd with 39 points; Colón Res. sit 28th with 18. A gap of 32 in goal difference, in favour of Boca Juniors Res.; Boca Juniors Res. have played 2 more.
1st Vélez Sársfield Res. 47 points from 20 games · goal difference +29 2nd Boca Juniors Res. 39 points from 20 games · goal difference +24 3rd Racing Club Res. 39 points from 21 games · goal difference +7 27th Central Córdoba SdE Res. 19 points from 18 games · goal difference -12 28th Colón Res. 18 points from 18 games · goal difference -8 29th Aldosivi Res. 18 points from 18 games · goal difference -11 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Vélez Sársfield Res. 20 15 2 3 42 13 +29 47 2 Boca Juniors Res. 20 12 3 5 36 12 +24 39 3 Racing Club Res. 21 11 6 4 33 26 +7 39 27 Central Córdoba SdE Res. 18 5 4 9 21 33 -12 19 28 Colón Res. 18 5 3 10 15 23 -8 18 29 Aldosivi Res. 18 5 3 10 17
Show full table Show less 1st Vélez Sársfield Res. 47 points from 20 games · goal difference +29 2nd Boca Juniors Res. 39 points from 20 games · goal difference +24 3rd Racing Club Res. 39 points from 21 games · goal difference +7 4th River Plate Res. 37 points from 21 games · goal difference +9 5th Independiente Res. 36 points from 19 games · goal difference +19 6th Lanús Res. 35 points from 19 games · goal difference +13 7th Newell's Old Boys Res. 34 points from 19 games · goal difference +9 8th Quilmes 2 33 points from 18 games · goal difference +8 9th Defensa y Justicia Res. 32 points from 18 games · goal difference +14 10th Atlético Tucumán Res. 30 points from 19 games · goal difference -2 Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
L Lost at Independiente Res. 1 Oct 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–2
D Drew at River Plate Res. 25 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Away 2–2
D Drew v Atl. Rafaela 2 17 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–0
W Won at Platense Res. 9 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Away 2–0
W Won v Quilmes 2 3 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Home 1–0
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 W Won at Estudiantes La Plata Res 26 Aug 2026 · Reserve League · Away 3–2
L Lost v Central Córdoba SdE Res. 20 Aug 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–1
D Drew at San Martín San Juan Res. 12 Aug 2026 · Reserve League · Away 0–0
W Won v Independiente Riva. Res. 4 Aug 2026 · Reserve League · Home 1–0
W Won v Belgrano Córdoba Res. 28 Jul 2026 · Reserve League · Home
Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
L Lost v Deportivo Riestra Res. 1 Oct 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–1
W Won v Unión Santa Fe Res. 25 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Home 2–1
L Lost at Independiente Res. 15 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Away 0–1
L Lost v Belgrano Córdoba Res. 8 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Home 1–3
L Lost at Atl. Rafaela 2 1 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–2
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 L Lost v Lanús Res. 26 Aug 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–2
W Won at Platense Res. 20 Aug 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–0
L Lost v Newell's Old Boys Res. 11 Aug 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–1
D Drew at Quilmes 2 5 Aug 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–1
D Drew v Defensa y Justicia Res. 22 Jul 2026 · Reserve League · Home 2–2
Partly in the model The model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings 5
Boca Juniors Res. wins 3
Draws 1
Colón Res. wins 1 Record shown: February 2022 to May 2026.
Average goals 2.2 (Boca Juniors Res. 1.6, Colón Res. 0.6). Draws 20%, both teams scored 40%, over 2.5 goals 60%.
7 May 2026 · Reserve League Colón Res. 0–3 Boca Juniors Res.
22 Oct 2025 · Reserve League Colón Res. 1–2 Boca Juniors Res.
6 Apr 2023 · Reserve League Colón Res. 2–1 Boca Juniors Res.
4 Sept 2022 · Reserve League Boca Juniors Res. 2–0 Colón Res.
10 Feb 2022 · Reserve League Boca Juniors Res. 0–0 Colón Res.
In the model The model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Boca Juniors Res. at home and Colón Res. away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Boca Juniors Res. Last 5 (5) 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 4 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Last 10 (10) 5 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 14 scored, 7 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 6 clean sheets · failed to score in 3 Home, last 5 (5) 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Home, last 10 (10) 6 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 15 scored, 2 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 8 clean sheets · failed to score in 4 Boca Juniors Res. Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 2 2 1 6 4 +2 8 1.60 3 1 Last 10 (10) 10 5 3 2 14 7 +7 18 1.80 6 3 Home, last 5 (5) 5 3 1 1 6 1 +5 10 2.00 4 2 Home, last 10 (10) 10 6 2 2 15 2 +13 20 2.00 8 4
Colón Res. Last 5 (5) 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Last 10 (10) 2 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost · 8 scored, 14 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 4 Away, last 5 (5) 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 6 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2 Away, last 10 (10) 2 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost · 8 scored, 14 conceded · 0.90 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3 Colón Res. Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 1
Context only Shown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure Boca Juniors Res. Colón Res. League position 2nd 28th Points per game 1.95 1.00 Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) 1.40 0.80 Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) 0.70 1.40 Clean sheets 6 1
Context only Rest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Boca Juniors Res.: 7 days since their last match (1 Oct 2026). Colón Res.: 7 days since their last match (1 Oct 2026). In the model Missing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Boca Juniors Res. None reported.
11th Unión Santa Fe Res. 29 points from 18 games · goal difference +4
12th Estudiantes La Plata Res 28 points from 18 games · goal difference +9
13th Argentinos Juniors Res. 28 points from 18 games · goal difference +6
14th Belgrano Córdoba Res. 27 points from 18 games · goal difference -2
15th Talleres Córdoba Res. 26 points from 18 games · goal difference +6
16th Huracán Res. 26 points from 18 games · goal difference +6
17th Rosario Central Res. 26 points from 18 games · goal difference +3
18th Platense Res. 26 points from 18 games · goal difference -3
19th Deportivo Riestra Res. 25 points from 18 games · goal difference +7
20th Independiente Riva. Res. 24 points from 18 games · goal difference 0
21st Instituto Res. 24 points from 18 games · goal difference -1
22nd San Lorenzo Res. 24 points from 18 games · goal difference -2
23rd Gimnasia La Plata Res. 23 points from 18 games · goal difference +2
24th Gimnasia Mendoza 2 23 points from 18 games · goal difference -3
25th Banfield Res. 23 points from 18 games · goal difference -4
26th Ferro 2 22 points from 18 games · goal difference -3
27th Central Córdoba SdE Res. 19 points from 18 games · goal difference -12
28th Colón Res. 18 points from 18 games · goal difference -8
29th Aldosivi Res. 18 points from 18 games · goal difference -11
30th Barracas Central Res. 17 points from 18 games · goal difference -13
31st Sarmiento Res. 16 points from 18 games · goal difference -10
32nd Tigre Res. 16 points from 18 games · goal difference -10
33rd Godoy Cruz Res. 15 points from 18 games · goal difference -10
34th Atl. Rafaela 2 12 points from 18 games · goal difference -15
35th Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 11 points from 18 games · goal difference -23
36th San Martín San Juan Res. 8 points from 18 games · goal difference -43 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Vélez Sársfield Res. 20 15 2 3 42 13 +29 47 2 Boca Juniors Res. 20 12 3 5 36 12 +24 39 3 Racing Club Res. 21 11 6 4 33 26 +7 39 4 River Plate Res. 21 11 4 6 29 20 +9 37 5 Independiente Res. 19 11 3 5 38 19 +19 36 6 Lanús Res. 19 11 2 6 40 27 +13 35 7 Newell's Old Boys Res. 19 10 4 5 27 18 +9 34 8 Quilmes 2 18 10 3 5 20 12 +8 33 9 Defensa y Justicia Res. 18 9 5 4 38 24 +14 32 10 Atlético Tucumán Res. 19 9 3 7 26 28 -2 30 11 Unión Santa Fe Res. 18 7 8 3 23 19 +4 29 12 Estudiantes La Plata Res 18 8 4 6 25 16 +9 28 13 Argentinos Juniors Res. 18 7 7 4 24 18 +6 28 14 Belgrano Córdoba Res. 18 8 3 7 27 29 -2 27 15 Talleres Córdoba Res. 18 7 5 6 27 21 +6 26 16 Huracán Res. 18 7 5 6 23 17 +6 26 17 Rosario Central Res. 18 7 5 6 25 22 +3 26 18 Platense Res. 18 7 5 6 17 20 -3 26 19 Deportivo Riestra Res. 18 7 4 7 25 18 +7 25 20 Independiente Riva. Res. 18 7 3 8 23 23 0 24 21 Instituto Res. 18 5 9 4 20 21 -1 24 22 San Lorenzo Res. 18 6 6 6 22 24 -2 24 23 Gimnasia La Plata Res. 18 6 5 7 19 17 +2 23 24 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 18 6 5 7 16 19 -3 23 25 Banfield Res. 18 6 5 7 14 18 -4 23 26 Ferro 2 18 6 4 8 20 23 -3 22 27 Central Córdoba SdE Res. 18 5 4 9 21 33 -12 19 28 Colón Res. 18 5 3 10 15 23 -8 18 29 Aldosivi Res. 18 5 3 10 17 28 -11 18 30 Barracas Central Res. 18 4 5 9 11 24 -13 17 31 Sarmiento Res. 18 4 4 10 16 26 -10 16 32 Tigre Res. 18 4 4 10 15 25 -10 16 33 Godoy Cruz Res. 18 4 3 11 20 30 -10 15 34 Atl. Rafaela 2 18 3 3 12 21 36 -15 12 35 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 18 2 5 11 9 32 -23 11 36 San Martín San Juan Res. 18 2 2 14 16 59 -43 8
4–0
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 D Drew at Deportivo Riestra Res. 22 Jul 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–1
D Drew v River Plate Res. 5 Jul 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–0
W Won v Atlético Tucumán Res. 28 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Home 3–0
L Lost v Lanús Res. 18 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–1
L Lost at Newell's Old Boys Res. 10 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–3
W Won v Defensa y Justicia Res. 3 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Home 5–0
W Won at Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 26 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away 2–0
W Won v Huracán Res. 20 May 2026 · Reserve League · Home 1–0
D Drew at Ferro 2 13 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away 0–0
W Won at Colón Res. 7 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away 3–0
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 L Lost at Estudiantes La Plata Res 14 Jul 2026 · Reserve League · Away 0–2
W Won v Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 19 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Home 1–0
L Lost at Central Córdoba SdE Res. 9 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Away 0–2
W Won v Huracán Res. 2 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Home 3–1
D Drew at San Martín San Juan Res. 26 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–1
L Lost v Ferro 2 19 May 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–1
W Won at Independiente Riva. Res. 13 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away 2–1
L Lost v Boca Juniors Res. 7 May 2026 · Reserve League · Home 0–3
D Drew at Deportivo Riestra Res. 30 Apr 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–1
L Lost at Unión Santa Fe Res. 22 Apr 2026 · Reserve League · Away 1–3
Last 10 (10) 10 2 2 6 8 14 -6 8 0.80 1 4
Away, last 5 (5) 5 1 1 3 3 6 -3 4 0.80 1 2
Away, last 10 (10) 10 2 3 5 8 14 -6 9 0.90 1 3
Picks for Thursday 8 October Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
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