Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.18
Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13
· USA - USL League One
See the matchLoading picks…
Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.18
· USA - USL League One
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
17 of 22 picks won among these
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.28
· Nicaragua - Primera Division
See the matchOur public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
Final score Ilbirs 0, Bars 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Ilbirs win 16%, Draw 20%, Bars win 63%.
Ilbirs host Bars in the Premier League, Kyrgyzstan.
Our model gives Ilbirs a 16% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Bars 63%.
The model expects Ilbirs to score 1.2 goals and Bars 2.1.
Ilbirs have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Bars have won 5 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Our model · No price
· Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Price when published 1.16
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· World - Friendlies Women
See the matchAral win
Result pending
83%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Price when published 1.07
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Armenia - First League
See the matchElfsborg W win
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the matchBrommapojkarna W win
Won
87%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.21
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchAtlético Mineiro U20 win
Won
85%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchGrêmio U20 win
Lost
84%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 59%
Price when published 1.51
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCruzeiro U20 win
Lost
84%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchCSA U20 win
Lost
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchBelgrano Córdoba Res. win
Won
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Argentina - Reserve League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.24
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.25
· Peru - Primera División
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.18
· Lebanon - Premier League
See the matchFlamengo U20 win
Lost
81%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchSão Paulo U20 win
Won
90%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Georgia - Liga 3
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the matchOver 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Norway - Nasjonal U19 Champions League
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Kuwait - Division 1
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.20
· Finland - Veikkausliiga
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 73%
Price when published 1.22
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.21
· Israel - Liga Alef
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
· Romania - Liga I
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.19
· Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 77%
Price when published 1.20
· Ireland - Premier Division
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
76%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.30
· Peru - Segunda División
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
75%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 72%
Price when published 1.29
· Colombia - Primera B
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
· Brazil - Serie A
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · No price
· El Salvador - Primera Division
See the matchThese chances include head-to-head context at 4% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Ilbirs 17% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Ilbirs sit 12th with 25 points; Bars sit 4th with 43. A gap of 34 in goal difference, in favour of Bars.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ozgon | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 26 | +22 | 45 |
| 4 | Bars | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 33 | +28 | 43 |
| 5 | Asia Talas | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | +16 | 43 |
| 11 | Toktogul | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 28 |
| 12 | Ilbirs | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 25 |
| 13 | Bishkek City | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: April 2025 to July 2026.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Ilbirs at home and Bars away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 | 1.50 | 4 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 12 | 1.20 | 3 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Ilbirs | Bars |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 4th |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 1.95 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 3.10 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 24 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muras United | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 47 | 20 | +27 | 46 |
| 2 | Alga | 23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 41 | 23 | +18 | 46 |
| 3 | Ozgon | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 26 | +22 | 45 |
| 4 | Bars | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 33 | +28 | 43 |
| 5 | Asia Talas | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | +16 | 43 |
| 6 | Alay | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 39 |
| 7 | Talant | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 30 |
| 8 | Dordoi Bishkek | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 29 |
| 9 | Neftchi | 23 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 29 |
| 10 | OshMU Aldier | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 28 |
| 11 | Toktogul | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 28 |
| 12 | Ilbirs | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 25 |
| 13 | Bishkek City | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 24 |
| 14 | Asiagoal | 23 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 21 |
| 15 | Abdish-Ata | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 14 |
| 16 | Kara-Balta | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 63 | -44 | 9 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 16 |
| 5 |
| +11 |
| 12 |
| 2.40 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 16 | +15 | 20 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 12 | 1.20 | 0 | 0 |
|---|