Lanús Res. v Central Córdoba SdE Res.Lanús Res.HomevCentral Córdoba SdE Res.AwayLanús Res.HomevCentral Córdoba SdE Res.Away
Final score Lanús Res. 3, Central Córdoba SdE Res. 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Lanús Res. win 68%, Draw 19%, Central Córdoba SdE Res. win 13%.
68%
Lanús Res. win
19%
Draw
13%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. win
What the data says
Lanús Res. host Central Córdoba SdE Res. in the Reserve League, Argentina.
Our model gives Lanús Res. a 68% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Central Córdoba SdE Res. 13%.
The model expects Lanús Res. to score 2.3 goals and Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1.1.
Lanús Res. have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Central Córdoba SdE Res. have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
Lanús Res. sit 6th with 35 points; Central Córdoba SdE Res. sit 27th with 19 points.
Lanús Res. have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Central Córdoba SdE Res. 4 from 5.
At home, Lanús Res. have taken 13 points from their last 5; away, Central Córdoba SdE Res. have taken 7 from their last 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:17 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Lanús Res. win
68% · price 1.45
Draw
19% · price 3.96
Central Córdoba SdE Res. win
13% · price 5.66
Over 1.5 goals
83% · price 1.17
Over 2.5 goals
62% · price 1.66
Both teams score
58% · price 1.73
Expected goals (our model)
Lanús Res. 2.3, Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1.1
These chances include head-to-head context at 7% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Lanús Res. 67% to win.
Key factors
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Lanús Res. sit 6th with 35 points; Central Córdoba SdE Res. sit 27th with 19 points.
Lanús Res. have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Central Córdoba SdE Res. 4 from 5.
At home, Lanús Res. have taken 13 points from their last 5; away, Central Córdoba SdE Res. have taken 7 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 8 meetings Lanús Res. won 6, Central Córdoba SdE Res. won 0 and 2 were drawn.
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Reserve League, Apertura, before kick-off.
Lanús Res. sit 6th with 35 points; Central Córdoba SdE Res. sit 27th with 19. A gap of 25 in goal difference, in favour of Lanús Res.; Lanús Res. have played 1 more.
5thIndependiente Res.36 points from 19 games · goal difference +19
6thLanús Res.35 points from 19 games · goal difference +13
7thNewell's Old Boys Res.34 points from 19 games · goal difference +9
26thFerro 222 points from 18 games · goal difference -3
27thCentral Córdoba SdE Res.19 points from 18 games · goal difference -12
28thColón Res.18 points from 18 games · goal difference -8
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
5
Independiente Res.
19
11
3
5
38
19
+19
36
6
Lanús Res.
19
11
2
6
40
27
+13
35
7
Newell's Old Boys Res.
19
10
4
5
27
18
+9
34
26
Ferro 2
18
6
4
8
20
23
-3
22
27
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
18
5
4
9
21
33
-12
19
28
Colón Res.
18
5
3
10
15
Show full tableShow less
1stVélez Sársfield Res.47 points from 20 games · goal difference +29
2ndBoca Juniors Res.39 points from 20 games · goal difference +24
3rdRacing Club Res.39 points from 21 games · goal difference +7
4thRiver Plate Res.37 points from 21 games · goal difference +9
5thIndependiente Res.36 points from 19 games · goal difference +19
6thLanús Res.35 points from 19 games · goal difference +13
7thNewell's Old Boys Res.34 points from 19 games · goal difference +9
8thQuilmes 233 points from 18 games · goal difference +8
9thDefensa y Justicia Res.32 points from 18 games · goal difference +14
10thAtlético Tucumán Res.30 points from 19 games · goal difference -2
Lanús Res.: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
WWonat San Martín San Juan Res.1 Oct 2026 · Reserve League · Away2–0
WWonv Banfield Res.23 Sept 2026 · Reserve League · Home2–1
29 Aug 2022 · Reserve LeagueLanús Res.0–0Central Córdoba SdE Res.
15 May 2022 · Reserve LeagueLanús Res.2–1Central Córdoba SdE Res.
6 May 2022 · Reserve LeagueCentral Córdoba SdE Res.2–2Lanús Res.
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Lanús Res. at home and Central Córdoba SdE Res. away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Lanús Res.
Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 11 scored, 9 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)7 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 19 scored, 11 conceded · 2.30 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 12 scored, 6 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (9)5 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 19 scored, 17 conceded · 1.78 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Lanús Res.
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
3
1
1
11
9
+2
10
2.00
1
0
Last 10 (10)
10
7
2
1
19
11
+8
23
2.30
4
1
Home, last 5 (5)
5
4
1
0
12
6
+6
13
2.60
1
0
Home, last 10 (9)
9
5
1
3
19
17
+2
16
1.78
1
2
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 11 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost · 10 scored, 15 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 9 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (10)2 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost · 10 scored, 17 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Lanús Res.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
League position
6th
27th
Points per game
1.84
1.06
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)
1.90
1.00
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)
1.10
1.50
Clean sheets
4
2
Schedule and rest
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Lanús Res.: 7 days since their last match (1 Oct 2026).
Central Córdoba SdE Res.: 8 days since their last match (30 Sept 2026).
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Lanús Res.
None reported.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
None reported.
23
-8
18
11thUnión Santa Fe Res.29 points from 18 games · goal difference +4
12thEstudiantes La Plata Res28 points from 18 games · goal difference +9
13thArgentinos Juniors Res.28 points from 18 games · goal difference +6
14thBelgrano Córdoba Res.27 points from 18 games · goal difference -2
15thTalleres Córdoba Res.26 points from 18 games · goal difference +6
16thHuracán Res.26 points from 18 games · goal difference +6
17thRosario Central Res.26 points from 18 games · goal difference +3
18thPlatense Res.26 points from 18 games · goal difference -3
19thDeportivo Riestra Res.25 points from 18 games · goal difference +7
20thIndependiente Riva. Res.24 points from 18 games · goal difference 0
21stInstituto Res.24 points from 18 games · goal difference -1
22ndSan Lorenzo Res.24 points from 18 games · goal difference -2
23rdGimnasia La Plata Res.23 points from 18 games · goal difference +2
24thGimnasia Mendoza 223 points from 18 games · goal difference -3
25thBanfield Res.23 points from 18 games · goal difference -4
26thFerro 222 points from 18 games · goal difference -3
27thCentral Córdoba SdE Res.19 points from 18 games · goal difference -12
28thColón Res.18 points from 18 games · goal difference -8
29thAldosivi Res.18 points from 18 games · goal difference -11
30thBarracas Central Res.17 points from 18 games · goal difference -13
31stSarmiento Res.16 points from 18 games · goal difference -10
32ndTigre Res.16 points from 18 games · goal difference -10
33rdGodoy Cruz Res.15 points from 18 games · goal difference -10
34thAtl. Rafaela 212 points from 18 games · goal difference -15
35thEstudiantes Rio Cuarto 211 points from 18 games · goal difference -23
36thSan Martín San Juan Res.8 points from 18 games · goal difference -43
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Vélez Sársfield Res.
20
15
2
3
42
13
+29
47
2
Boca Juniors Res.
20
12
3
5
36
12
+24
39
3
Racing Club Res.
21
11
6
4
33
26
+7
39
4
River Plate Res.
21
11
4
6
29
20
+9
37
5
Independiente Res.
19
11
3
5
38
19
+19
36
6
Lanús Res.
19
11
2
6
40
27
+13
35
7
Newell's Old Boys Res.
19
10
4
5
27
18
+9
34
8
Quilmes 2
18
10
3
5
20
12
+8
33
9
Defensa y Justicia Res.
18
9
5
4
38
24
+14
32
10
Atlético Tucumán Res.
19
9
3
7
26
28
-2
30
11
Unión Santa Fe Res.
18
7
8
3
23
19
+4
29
12
Estudiantes La Plata Res
18
8
4
6
25
16
+9
28
13
Argentinos Juniors Res.
18
7
7
4
24
18
+6
28
14
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
18
8
3
7
27
29
-2
27
15
Talleres Córdoba Res.
18
7
5
6
27
21
+6
26
16
Huracán Res.
18
7
5
6
23
17
+6
26
17
Rosario Central Res.
18
7
5
6
25
22
+3
26
18
Platense Res.
18
7
5
6
17
20
-3
26
19
Deportivo Riestra Res.
18
7
4
7
25
18
+7
25
20
Independiente Riva. Res.
18
7
3
8
23
23
0
24
21
Instituto Res.
18
5
9
4
20
21
-1
24
22
San Lorenzo Res.
18
6
6
6
22
24
-2
24
23
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
18
6
5
7
19
17
+2
23
24
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
18
6
5
7
16
19
-3
23
25
Banfield Res.
18
6
5
7
14
18
-4
23
26
Ferro 2
18
6
4
8
20
23
-3
22
27
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
18
5
4
9
21
33
-12
19
28
Colón Res.
18
5
3
10
15
23
-8
18
29
Aldosivi Res.
18
5
3
10
17
28
-11
18
30
Barracas Central Res.
18
4
5
9
11
24
-13
17
31
Sarmiento Res.
18
4
4
10
16
26
-10
16
32
Tigre Res.
18
4
4
10
15
25
-10
16
33
Godoy Cruz Res.
18
4
3
11
20
30
-10
15
34
Atl. Rafaela 2
18
3
3
12
21
36
-15
12
35
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
18
2
5
11
9
32
-23
11
36
San Martín San Juan Res.
18
2
2
14
16
59
-43
8
Show last 20 matchesShowing 20
LLostat Ferro 213 Jul 2026 · Reserve League · Away1–2
LLostat River Plate Res.27 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Away1–3
WWonat Boca Juniors Res.18 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Away1–0
LLostv Independiente Res.9 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Home0–4
WWonat Atl. Rafaela 24 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Away7–1
LLostv Platense Res.28 May 2026 · Reserve League · Home0–2
WWonat Quilmes 219 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away2–0
LLostv Estudiantes La Plata Res14 May 2026 · Reserve League · Home1–4
WWonat Central Córdoba SdE Res.6 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away5–1
WWonv San Martín San Juan Res.29 Apr 2026 · Reserve League · Home6–1
Show last 20 matchesShowing 20
LLostat Quilmes 213 Jul 2026 · Reserve League · Away0–1
LLostat Estudiantes La Plata Res19 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Away2–3
WWonv Colón Res.9 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Home2–0
WWonv San Martín San Juan Res.4 Jun 2026 · Reserve League · Home3–1
LLostat Independiente Riva. Res.27 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away1–2
WWonv Deportivo Riestra Res.20 May 2026 · Reserve League · Home1–0
LLostat Belgrano Córdoba Res.13 May 2026 · Reserve League · Away0–1
LLostv Lanús Res.6 May 2026 · Reserve League · Home1–5
LLostat Newell's Old Boys Res.28 Apr 2026 · Reserve League · Away0–1
DDrewat Atlético Tucumán Res.21 Apr 2026 · Reserve League · Away1–1
1
1
3
6
11
-5
4
0.80
0
1
Last 10 (10)
10
3
3
4
10
15
-5
12
1.20
2
3
Away, last 5 (5)
5
2
1
2
6
9
-3
7
1.40
1
1
Away, last 10 (10)
10
2
2
6
10
17
-7
8
0.80
1
3
Picks for Thursday 8 October
Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.