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Thu 16:00 EDT · Morocco - Botola Pro

Maghreb Fès v Raja Casablanca

Final score Maghreb Fès 0, Raja Casablanca 0.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

What the data says

Maghreb Fès vs Raja Casablanca prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

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Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.

Maghreb Fès win: 29% · price 2.76
Draw: 34% · price 2.63
Raja Casablanca win: 37% · price 2.75
Over 1.5 goals: 67% · price 1.52
Over 2.5 goals: 40% · price 2.61
Both teams score: 48% · price 2.08
Expected goals (our model): Maghreb Fès 1.0, Raja Casablanca 1.1

These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Maghreb Fès 32% to win.

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Maghreb Fès sit 1st with 6 points; Raja Casablanca sit 8th with 3 points.
Maghreb Fès have taken 13 points from their last 5 matches; Raja Casablanca 10 from 5.
At home, Maghreb Fès have taken 12 points from their last 5; away, Raja Casablanca have taken 7 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 12 meetings Maghreb Fès won 1, Raja Casablanca won 4 and 7 were drawn.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Botola Pro, before kick-off.

Maghreb Fès sit 1st with 6 points; Raja Casablanca sit 8th with 3. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Maghreb Fès; Maghreb Fès have played 1 more.

1st Maghreb Fès6 points from 2 games · goal difference +2
2nd UTS Rabat6 points from 2 games · goal difference +2
7th Wydad AC3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
8th Raja Casablanca3 points from 1 game · goal difference +1
9th Hassania Agadir3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0

#	Team	P	W	D	L

Maghreb Fès: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Hassania Agadir3 Oct 2026 · Botola Pro · Away2–1

v CR Khemis Zemamra27 Sept 2026 · Botola Pro · Home2–1

at Rahimo12 Sept 2026 · CAF Champions League · Away0–0

v Rahimo6 Sept 2026 · CAF Champions League · Home4–1

Raja Casablanca: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v CR Khemis Zemamra3 Oct 2026 · Botola Pro · Home1–0

at Olympique Safi5 Jul 2026 · Botola Pro · Away2–0

v Hassania Agadir2 Jul 2026 · Botola Pro · Home2–0

at Ittihad Tanger28 Jun 2026 · Botola Pro · Away1–1

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Meetings: 12
Maghreb Fès wins: 1
Draws: 7
Raja Casablanca wins: 4

Record shown: May 2021 to May 2026.

Average goals 1.5 (Maghreb Fès 0.6, Raja Casablanca 0.9). Draws 58%, both teams scored 42%, over 2.5 goals 17%.

6 May 2026 · Botola ProMaghreb Fès0–2Raja Casablanca

3 Oct 2025 · Botola ProRaja Casablanca1–1Maghreb Fès

28 Feb 2025 · Botola ProRaja Casablanca0–0Maghreb Fès

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Maghreb Fès at home and Raja Casablanca away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Maghreb Fès

Last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 10 scored, 3 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)7 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 16 scored, 7 conceded · 2.30 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Home, last 5 (5)4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 11 scored, 5 conceded · 2.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (10)6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 17 scored, 9 conceded · 1.90 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3

Maghreb Fès
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Maghreb Fès	Raja Casablanca
League position	1st	8th
Points per game	3.00	3.00
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.60	1.40
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	0.70	1.10
Clean sheets	4	3

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Maghreb Fès: 5 days since their last match (3 Oct 2026).
Raja Casablanca: 5 days since their last match (3 Oct 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Maghreb Fès

None reported.

Raja Casablanca

None reported.

Counter-signals

Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.

Evidence pointing the other way.

Raja Casablanca sit below Maghreb Fès in the table (8th against 1st).
Maghreb Fès have the better recent form: 13 points from 5 against 10 from 5.

Show full table

1st Maghreb Fès6 points from 2 games · goal difference +2
2nd UTS Rabat6 points from 2 games · goal difference +2
3rd Ittihad Tanger4 points from 2 games · goal difference +2
4th CODM Meknès3 points from 2 games · goal difference +3
5th Widad Témara3 points from 2 games · goal difference +1
6th Kawkab Marrakech3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
7th Wydad AC3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
8th Raja Casablanca3 points from 1 game · goal difference +1
9th Hassania Agadir3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
10th Amal Tiznit3 points from 2 games · goal difference -1
11th Moghreb Tetouan2 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
12th Renaissance Berkane1 points from 1 game · goal difference 0
13th FAR Rabat0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
14th FUS Rabat0 points from 2 games · goal difference -2
15th CR Khemis Zemamra0 points from 2 games · goal difference -2
16th Difaa EL Jadida0 points from 2 games · goal difference -6

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Maghreb Fès	2	2	0	0	4	2	+2	6
2	UTS Rabat	2	2	0	0	3	1	+2	6
3	Ittihad Tanger	2	1	1	0	4	2	+2	4
4	CODM Meknès	2

Last 5 (5)	5	4	1	0	10	3	+7	13	2.60	2	1
Last 10 (10)	10	7	2	1	16	7	+9	23	2.30	4	2
Home, last 5 (5)	5	4	0	1	11	5	+6	12	2.40	1	0
Home, last 10 (10)	10	6	1	3	17	9	+8	19	1.90	3	3

Raja Casablanca

Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)5 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 14 scored, 11 conceded · 1.70 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 8 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (9)5 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 13 scored, 10 conceded · 1.78 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1

Raja Casablanca
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	3	1	1	7	3	+4	10	2.00	3	0
Last 10 (10)	10	5	2	3	14	11	+3	17	1.70	3	2
Away, last 5 (5)	5	2	1	2	8	8	0	7	1.40	1	1
Away, last 10 (9)	9	5	1	3	13	10	+3	16	1.78	4	1

1	Maghreb Fès	2	2	0	4	2	+2	6
2	UTS Rabat	2	2	0	3	1	+2	6
7	Wydad AC	2	1	1	3	3	0	3
8	Raja Casablanca	1	1	0	1	0	+1	3
9	Hassania Agadir	2	1	1	4	4	0	3

Maghreb Fès v Raja CasablancaMaghreb FèsHomevRaja CasablancaAwayMaghreb FèsHomevRaja CasablancaAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Maghreb Fès v Raja CasablancaMaghreb FèsHomevRaja CasablancaAwayMaghreb FèsHomevRaja CasablancaAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Maghreb Fès: recent fixtures

Raja Casablanca: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Maghreb Fès

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Maghreb Fès

Raja Casablanca

Counter-signals

Raja Casablanca

Maghreb Fès v Raja Casablanca

Maghreb Fès v Raja Casablanca