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Thu 07:00 EDT · Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Mashujaa v Polisi Tanzania

Final score Mashujaa 2, Polisi Tanzania 1.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

What the data says

Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

More filters

Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.

Mashujaa win: 35%
Draw: 32%
Polisi Tanzania win: 33%
Over 1.5 goals: 66%
Over 2.5 goals: 41%
Both teams score: 47%
Expected goals (our model): Mashujaa 1.0, Polisi Tanzania 1.0

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Mashujaa sit 8th with 9 points; Polisi Tanzania sit 5th with 10 points.
Mashujaa have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Polisi Tanzania 9 from 5.
At home, Mashujaa have taken 9 points from their last 5; away, Polisi Tanzania have taken 6 from their last 5.
Mashujaa have had 28 days since their last match; Polisi Tanzania 25.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Ligi kuu Bara, before kick-off.

Mashujaa sit 8th with 9 points; Polisi Tanzania sit 5th with 10. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Polisi Tanzania.

4th Singida Black Stars10 points from 6 games · goal difference +4
5th Polisi Tanzania10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
6th Mbeya City10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
7th Dodoma Jiji10 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
8th Mashujaa9 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
9th Geita Gold7 points from 6 games · goal difference +1

#	Team	P	W

Mashujaa: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Singida Black Stars9 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Home2–1

at Dodoma Jiji4 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away0–1

v Kagera Sugar27 Aug 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Home2–1

at Mbeya City23 Aug 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away1–2

Polisi Tanzania: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Mbeya City12 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Home2–0

v Coastal Union6 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Home1–2

at Singida Black Stars29 Aug 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away2–4

at Dodoma Jiji25 Aug 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away1–0

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Mashujaa at home and Polisi Tanzania away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Mashujaa

Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 6 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)5 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost · 9 scored, 9 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Home, last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 5 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Home, last 10 (10)4 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost · 8 scored, 9 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 5

Mashujaa
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Mashujaa	Polisi Tanzania
League position	8th	5th
Points per game	1.50	1.67
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	0.90	2.00
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	0.90	0.90
Clean sheets	3	5

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Mashujaa: 28 days since their last match (9 Sept 2026).
Polisi Tanzania: 25 days since their last match (12 Sept 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Mashujaa

None reported.

Polisi Tanzania

None reported.

Counter-signals

Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.

Evidence pointing the other way.

Polisi Tanzania have had 25 days of rest, Mashujaa 28.

Show full table

1st Young Africans18 points from 6 games · goal difference +14
2nd Simba18 points from 6 games · goal difference +9
3rd Azam14 points from 7 games · goal difference +4
4th Singida Black Stars10 points from 6 games · goal difference +4
5th Polisi Tanzania10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
6th Mbeya City10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
7th Dodoma Jiji10 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
8th Mashujaa9 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
9th Geita Gold7 points from 6 games · goal difference +1
10th JKT Tanzania7 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
11th Coastal Union7 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
12th Tabora United6 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
13th Namungo6 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
14th Fountain Gate4 points from 6 games · goal difference -7
15th Kagera Sugar2 points from 6 games · goal difference -9
16th Pamba Jiji1 points from 6 games · goal difference -9

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	6	6	0	0	16	2	+14	18
2	Simba	6	6	0	0	11	2	+9	18
3	Azam	7	4	2	1	11	7	+4	14
4	Singida Black Stars	6	3

Last 5 (5)	5	2	0	3	5	6	-1	6	1.20	0	2
Last 10 (10)	10	5	0	5	9	9	0	15	1.50	3	4
Home, last 5 (5)	5	3	0	2	6	5	+1	9	1.80	1	2
Home, last 10 (10)	10	4	3	3	8	9	-1	15	1.50	4	5

Polisi Tanzania

Last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 6 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 20 scored, 9 conceded · 1.90 points a game · 5 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 13 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 10 (9)2 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost · 10 scored, 25 conceded · 0.78 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3

Polisi Tanzania
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	3	0	2	8	6	+2	9	1.80	3	0
Last 10 (10)	10	6	1	3	20	9	+11	19	1.90	5	1
Away, last 5 (5)	5	2	0	3	7	13	-6	6	1.20	2	2
Away, last 10 (9)	9	2	1	6	10	25	-15	7	0.78	2	3

4	Singida Black Stars	6	3	1	2	13	9	+4	10
5	Polisi Tanzania	6	3	1	2	9	7	+2	10
6	Mbeya City	6	3	1	2	6	4	+2	10
7	Dodoma Jiji	6	3	1	2	4	4	0	10
8	Mashujaa	6	3	0	3	6	6	0	9
9	Geita Gold	6	2	1	3	9	8	+1	7

Mashujaa v Polisi TanzaniaMashujaaHomevPolisi TanzaniaAwayMashujaaHomevPolisi TanzaniaAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Mashujaa v Polisi TanzaniaMashujaaHomevPolisi TanzaniaAwayMashujaaHomevPolisi TanzaniaAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Mashujaa: recent fixtures

Polisi Tanzania: recent fixtures

Form, home and away

Mashujaa

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Mashujaa

Polisi Tanzania

Counter-signals

Polisi Tanzania

Mashujaa v Polisi Tanzania

Mashujaa v Polisi Tanzania