Naft Maysan v ErbilNaft MaysanHomevErbilAwayNaft MaysanHomevErbilAway
Final score Naft Maysan 1, Erbil 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Naft Maysan win 17%, Draw 30%, Erbil win 52%.
17%
Naft Maysan win
30%
Draw
52%
Erbil win
What the data says
Naft Maysan host Erbil in the Iraqi League, Iraq.
Our model gives Naft Maysan a 17% chance of winning, a draw 30% and Erbil 52%.
The model expects Naft Maysan to score 0.8 goals and Erbil 1.3.
Naft Maysan have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Erbil have won 4 of 6.
Top factors
Naft Maysan sit 18th with 7 points; Erbil sit 3rd with 17 points.
Naft Maysan have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Erbil 10 from 5.
At home, Naft Maysan have taken 5 points from their last 5; away, Erbil have taken 13 from their last 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:17 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Naft Maysan win
17% · price 3.64
Draw
30% · price 3.27
Erbil win
52% · price 1.90
Over 1.5 goals
67%
Over 2.5 goals
41% · price 1.98
Both teams score
47%
Expected goals (our model)
Naft Maysan 0.8, Erbil 1.3
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Naft Maysan 18% to win.
Key factors
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Naft Maysan sit 18th with 7 points; Erbil sit 3rd with 17 points.
Naft Maysan have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Erbil 10 from 5.
At home, Naft Maysan have taken 5 points from their last 5; away, Erbil have taken 13 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 13 meetings Naft Maysan won 2, Erbil won 7 and 4 were drawn.
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Iraqi League, before kick-off.
Naft Maysan sit 18th with 7 points; Erbil sit 3rd with 17. A gap of 14 in goal difference, in favour of Erbil.
2ndAl Zawra'a18 points from 8 games · goal difference +12
3rdErbil17 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
4thNewroz15 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
17thAl Talaba7 points from 8 games · goal difference -5
18thNaft Maysan7 points from 8 games · goal difference -5
19thGharraf5 points from 8 games · goal difference -8
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
2
Al Zawra'a
8
5
3
0
15
3
+12
18
3
Erbil
8
5
2
1
12
3
+9
17
4
Newroz
8
4
3
1
13
4
+9
15
17
Al Talaba
8
1
4
3
9
14
-5
7
18
Naft Maysan
8
1
4
3
6
11
-5
7
19
Gharraf
8
1
2
5
4
12
-8
Show full tableShow less
1stAl-Karma20 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
2ndAl Zawra'a18 points from 8 games · goal difference +12
3rdErbil17 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
4thNewroz15 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
5thAl Shorta15 points from 8 games · goal difference +5
6thNaft15 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
7thAl Quwa Al Jawiya11 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
8thAl-Jolan SC10 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
9thDuhok9 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
10thDiyala9 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
11thAl Minaa Basra9 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
Naft Maysan: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
LLostat Al Karkh17 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Away2–3
WWonv Al Talaba13 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Home2–0
DDrewat Al Minaa Basra9 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Away1–1
LLostv Newroz4 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Home0–2
DDrewat Al Quwa Al Jawiya29 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Away1–1
Show last 10 matchesShowing 10
LLostat Al Zawra'a25 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Away0–4
DDrewv Naft20 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Home0–0
DDrewv Al-Jolan SC14 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Home0–0
WWonat Gharraf2 Jun 2026 · Iraqi League · Away2–0
LLostv Al Quwa Al Jawiya28 May 2026 · Iraqi League · Home0–2
Erbil: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
WWonat Karbala18 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Away3–0
LLostv Al-Karma14 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Home1–2
WWonv Diyala8 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Home2–0
DDrewat Al Shorta4 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Away0–0
WWonv Al Minaa Basra31 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Home2–0
Show last 10 matchesShowing 10
WWonat Al Karkh25 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Away1–0
DDrewv Al Quwa Al Jawiya21 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Home1–1
WWonv Al Kahrabaa16 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Home2–0
WWonv Baghdad2 Jun 2026 · Iraqi League · Home3–1
WWonat Zakho28 May 2026 · Iraqi League · Away2–1
Head to head
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings
13
Naft Maysan wins
2
Draws
4
Erbil wins
7
Record shown: February 2020 to March 2026.
Average goals 2.3 (Naft Maysan 0.8, Erbil 1.5). Draws 31%, both teams scored 54%, over 2.5 goals 31%.
27 Mar 2026 · Iraqi LeagueNaft Maysan0–0Erbil
31 Dec 2025 · Iraqi LeagueErbil1–0Naft Maysan
7 May 2025 · Iraqi LeagueErbil3–2Naft Maysan
30 Nov 2024 · Iraqi LeagueNaft Maysan1–1Erbil
19 Jun 2024 · Iraqi LeagueErbil2–0Naft Maysan
Show last 10 meetingsShowing 10
31 Dec 2023 · Iraqi LeagueNaft Maysan1–1Erbil
4 Apr 2023 · Iraqi LeagueErbil3–1Naft Maysan
20 Oct 2022 · Iraqi LeagueNaft Maysan2–1Erbil
18 Jun 2022 · Iraqi LeagueNaft Maysan1–1Erbil
5 Jan 2022 · Iraqi LeagueErbil2–0Naft Maysan
Show last 13 meetingsShowing 13
8 Apr 2021 · Iraqi LeagueNaft Maysan2–3Erbil
13 Dec 2020 · Iraqi LeagueErbil
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Naft Maysan at home and Erbil away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Naft Maysan
Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)2 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost · 8 scored, 13 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 5
Home, last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Home, last 10 (10)3 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost · 11 scored, 9 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Naft Maysan
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
1
2
2
6
7
-1
5
1.00
1
1
Last 10 (10)
10
2
4
4
8
13
-5
10
1.00
4
5
Home, last 5 (5)
5
1
2
2
2
4
-2
5
1.00
3
4
Home, last 10 (10)
10
3
5
2
11
9
+2
14
1.40
4
4
Erbil
Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 2 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)7 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 17 scored, 5 conceded · 2.30 points a game · 6 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Away, last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 1 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (9)7 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 18 scored, 5 conceded · 2.56 points a game · 5 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Erbil
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
3
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Naft Maysan
Erbil
League position
18th
3rd
Points per game
0.88
2.13
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)
0.80
1.70
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)
1.30
0.50
Clean sheets
4
6
Schedule and rest
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Naft Maysan: 21 days since their last match (17 Sept 2026).
Erbil: 20 days since their last match (18 Sept 2026).
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Naft Maysan
None reported.
Erbil
None reported.
Picks for Thursday 8 October
Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.