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Thu 11:30 EDT · Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara

Namungo v Tabora United

Final score Namungo 1, Tabora United 0.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

What the data says

Namungo vs Tabora United prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

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Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.

Namungo win: 36%
Draw: 32%
Tabora United win: 32%
Over 1.5 goals: 68%
Over 2.5 goals: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
Expected goals (our model): Namungo 1.1, Tabora United 1.0

These chances include head-to-head context at 7% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Namungo 38% to win.

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Namungo sit 13th with 6 points; Tabora United sit 12th with 6 points.
Namungo have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches; Tabora United 5 from 5.
At home, Namungo have taken 10 points from their last 5; away, Tabora United have taken 6 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 6 meetings Namungo won 1, Tabora United won 3 and 2 were drawn.
Namungo have had 27 days since their last match; Tabora United 25.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Ligi kuu Bara, before kick-off.

Namungo sit 13th with 6 points; Tabora United sit 12th with 6. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Tabora United; Namungo have played 1 more.

11th Coastal Union7 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
12th Tabora United6 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
13th Namungo6 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
14th Fountain Gate4 points from 6 games · goal difference -7

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA

Namungo: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Dodoma Jiji11 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away0–1

at Azam7 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away0–2

at Singida Black Stars1 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away2–3

at JKT Tanzania29 Aug 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away1–2

Tabora United: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Pamba Jiji13 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away3–1

v Mbeya City4 Sept 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Home0–0

v Dodoma Jiji29 Aug 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Home0–1

at Coastal Union24 Aug 2026 · Ligi kuu Bara · Away1–1

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Meetings: 6
Namungo wins: 1
Draws: 2
Tabora United wins: 3

Record shown: February 2024 to June 2026.

Average goals 2.5 (Namungo 1.0, Tabora United 1.5). Draws 33%, both teams scored 67%, over 2.5 goals 50%.

16 Jun 2026 · Ligi kuu BaraNamungo0–0Tabora United

11 Mar 2026 · Ligi kuu BaraTabora United2–0Namungo

5 Feb 2025 · Ligi kuu BaraTabora United2–1Namungo

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Namungo at home and Tabora United away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Namungo

Last 5 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)4 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost · 11 scored, 14 conceded · 1.30 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Home, last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (10)3 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost · 9 scored, 10 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 5 clean sheets · failed to score in 3

Namungo
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Namungo	Tabora United
League position	13th	12th
Points per game	0.86	1.00
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.10	0.70
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	1.40	1.00
Clean sheets	3	3

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Namungo: 27 days since their last match (11 Sept 2026).
Tabora United: 25 days since their last match (13 Sept 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Namungo

None reported.

Tabora United

None reported.

Counter-signals

Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.

Evidence pointing the other way.

Namungo sit below Tabora United in the table (13th against 12th).
Tabora United have the better recent form: 5 points from 5 against 3 from 5.
Head-to-head context: Tabora United have won more of the last 6 meetings (3 to 1).

Show full table

1st Young Africans18 points from 6 games · goal difference +14
2nd Simba18 points from 6 games · goal difference +9
3rd Azam14 points from 7 games · goal difference +4
4th Singida Black Stars10 points from 6 games · goal difference +4
5th Polisi Tanzania10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
6th Mbeya City10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
7th Dodoma Jiji10 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
8th Mashujaa9 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
9th Geita Gold7 points from 6 games · goal difference +1
10th JKT Tanzania7 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
11th Coastal Union7 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
12th Tabora United6 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
13th Namungo6 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
14th Fountain Gate4 points from 6 games · goal difference -7
15th Kagera Sugar2 points from 6 games · goal difference -9
16th Pamba Jiji1 points from 6 games · goal difference -9

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	6	6	0	0	16	2	+14	18
2	Simba	6	6	0	0	11	2	+9	18
3	Azam	7	4	2	1	11	7	+4	14
4	Singida Black Stars	6	3

Last 5 (5)	5	1	0	4	4	8	-4	3	0.60	1	2
Last 10 (10)	10	4	1	5	11	14	-3	13	1.30	3	3
Home, last 5 (5)	5	3	1	1	5	4	+1	10	2.00	3	1
Home, last 10 (10)	10	3	5	2	9	10	-1	14	1.40	5	3

Tabora United

Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)1 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 10 conceded · 0.90 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 5
Away, last 5 (5)1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 5 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (10)3 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 9 conceded · 1.30 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 4

Tabora United
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	1	2	2	5	5	0	5	1.00	1	2
Last 10 (10)	10	1	6	3	7	10	-3	9	0.90	3	5
Away, last 5 (5)	5	1	3	1	6	5	+1	6	1.20	1	1
Away, last 10 (10)	10	3	4	3	10	9	+1	13	1.30	4	4

11	Coastal Union	6	2	1	3	6	9	-3	7
12	Tabora United	6	1	3	2	6	6	0	6
13	Namungo	7	2	0	5	6	11	-5	6
14	Fountain Gate	6	1	1	4	2	9	-7	4

Namungo v Tabora UnitedNamungoHomevTabora UnitedAwayNamungoHomevTabora UnitedAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Namungo v Tabora UnitedNamungoHomevTabora UnitedAwayNamungoHomevTabora UnitedAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Namungo: recent fixtures

Tabora United: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Namungo

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Namungo

Tabora United

Counter-signals

Tabora United

Namungo v Tabora United

Namungo v Tabora United