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Thu 08:00 EDT · Montenegro - First League

Otrant-Olympic v Mladost DG

Final score Otrant-Olympic 2, Mladost DG 2.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

What the data says

Otrant-Olympic vs Mladost DG prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

More filters

Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.

Otrant-Olympic win: 51% · price 1.63
Draw: 26% · price 3.56
Mladost DG win: 23% · price 4.79
Over 1.5 goals: 73% · price 1.24
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · price 1.87
Both teams score: 51% · price 1.80
Expected goals (our model): Otrant-Olympic 1.6, Mladost DG 1.0

These chances include head-to-head context at 7% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Otrant-Olympic 53% to win.

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Otrant-Olympic sit 1st with 16 points; Mladost DG sit 7th with 10 points.
Otrant-Olympic have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches; Mladost DG 6 from 5.
At home, Otrant-Olympic have taken 10 points from their last 5; away, Mladost DG have taken 6 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 8 meetings Otrant-Olympic won 2, Mladost DG won 5 and 1 was drawn.
Otrant-Olympic have had 12 days since their last match; Mladost DG 6.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the First League, before kick-off.

Otrant-Olympic sit 1st with 16 points; Mladost DG sit 7th with 10. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Otrant-Olympic.

1st Otrant-Olympic16 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
2nd Dečić15 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
6th Mornar13 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
7th Mladost DG10 points from 9 games · goal difference -7
8th Jezero9 points from 9 games · goal difference -6

#	Team	P	W	D	L

Otrant-Olympic: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Dinamo Tirana26 Sept 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away1–4

v Jezero20 Sept 2026 · First League · Home4–1

at Mornar14 Sept 2026 · First League · Away1–0

at Bokelj10 Sept 2026 · First League · Away1–2

Mladost DG: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Mornar2 Oct 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home1–5

at Petrovac28 Sept 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away1–0

at Bokelj20 Sept 2026 · First League · Away0–3

v Buducnost Podgorica14 Sept 2026 · First League · Home0–2

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Meetings: 8
Otrant-Olympic wins: 2
Draws: 1
Mladost DG wins: 5

Record shown: September 2022 to August 2026.

Average goals 2.3 (Otrant-Olympic 0.9, Mladost DG 1.4). Draws 13%, both teams scored 38%, over 2.5 goals 50%.

2 Aug 2026 · First LeagueMladost DG2–1Otrant-Olympic

4 Jun 2024 · First LeagueMladost DG2–2Otrant-Olympic

31 May 2024 · First LeagueOtrant-Olympic1–0Mladost DG

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Otrant-Olympic at home and Mladost DG away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Otrant-Olympic

Last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 9 scored, 7 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)5 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 16 scored, 14 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Home, last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 5 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Home, last 10 (8)6 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 16 scored, 9 conceded · 2.38 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2

Otrant-Olympic
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Otrant-Olympic	Mladost DG
League position	1st	7th
Points per game	1.78	1.11
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.60	0.80
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	1.40	1.90
Clean sheets	3	4

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Otrant-Olympic: 12 days since their last match (26 Sept 2026).
Mladost DG: 6 days since their last match (2 Oct 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Otrant-Olympic

None reported.

Mladost DG

None reported.

Counter-signals

Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.

Evidence pointing the other way.

Head-to-head context: Mladost DG have won more of the last 8 meetings (5 to 2).

Show full table

1st Otrant-Olympic16 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
2nd Dečić15 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
3rd Bokelj15 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
4th Buducnost Podgorica14 points from 9 games · goal difference +4
5th Sutjeska14 points from 9 games · goal difference +4
6th Mornar13 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
7th Mladost DG10 points from 9 games · goal difference -7
8th Jezero9 points from 9 games · goal difference -6
9th Petrovac8 points from 9 games · goal difference -2
10th Arsenal Tivat7 points from 9 games · goal difference -6

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Otrant-Olympic	9	5	1	3	15	10	+5	16
2	Dečić	9	4	3	2	10	7	+3	15
3	Bokelj	9	4	3	2	8	5	+3	15
4	Buducnost Podgorica	9	4	2	3	11	7	+4	14
5	Sutjeska	9	4	2	3	11	7	+4	14
6	Mornar	9	3	4	2	9	7	+2	13

Last 5 (5)	5	3	0	2	9	7	+2	9	1.80	2	0
Last 10 (10)	10	5	1	4	16	14	+2	16	1.60	3	2
Home, last 5 (5)	5	3	1	1	8	5	+3	10	2.00	2	2
Home, last 10 (8)	8	6	1	1	16	9	+7	19	2.38	3	2

Mladost DG

Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 10 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)3 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost · 8 scored, 19 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 9 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 10 (10)4 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost · 12 scored, 17 conceded · 1.30 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3

Mladost DG
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	2	0	3	3	10	-7	6	1.20	2	2
Last 10 (10)	10	3	1	6	8	19	-11	10	1.00	4	4
Away, last 5 (5)	5	2	0	3	3	9	-6	6	1.20	2	2
Away, last 10 (10)	10	4	1	5	12	17	-5	13	1.30	3	3

Otrant-Olympic v Mladost DGOtrant-OlympicHomevMladost DGAwayOtrant-OlympicHomevMladost DGAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Otrant-Olympic v Mladost DGOtrant-OlympicHomevMladost DGAwayOtrant-OlympicHomevMladost DGAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Otrant-Olympic: recent fixtures

Mladost DG: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Otrant-Olympic

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Otrant-Olympic

Mladost DG

Counter-signals

Mladost DG

Otrant-Olympic v Mladost DG

Otrant-Olympic v Mladost DG