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Thu 08:00 EDT · Lebanon - Premier League

Shabab Al Sahel v Tadamon Sour

Final score Shabab Al Sahel 0, Tadamon Sour 1.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

What the data says

Shabab Al Sahel vs Tadamon Sour prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Thursday 8 October

12 of 17 picks won

3 waiting for a result.

The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.

More filters

Competition

Market

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 75%

Price when published 1.18

Corpus ChristiFort Wayne13

Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One

See the match

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Won

Other picks (22)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.

17 of 22 picks won among these

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers: 71%

Price when published 1.28

UNAN ManaguaReal Estelí10

Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division

See the match

Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.

Shabab Al Sahel win: 47% · price 1.89
Draw: 31% · price 3.24
Tadamon Sour win: 22% · price 3.54
Over 1.5 goals: 65% · price 1.28
Over 2.5 goals: 40% · price 1.95
Both teams score: 46% · price 1.77
Expected goals (our model): Shabab Al Sahel 1.2, Tadamon Sour 0.8

These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Shabab Al Sahel 47% to win.

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Shabab Al Sahel sit 8th with 0 points; Tadamon Sour sit 9th with 0 points.
Shabab Al Sahel have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches; Tadamon Sour 7 from 5.
At home, Shabab Al Sahel have taken 10 points from their last 5; away, Tadamon Sour have taken 3 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 23 meetings Shabab Al Sahel won 11, Tadamon Sour won 7 and 5 were drawn.
Shabab Al Sahel have had 98 days since their last match; Tadamon Sour 71.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.

Shabab Al Sahel sit 8th with 0 points; Tadamon Sour sit 9th with 0. They are level on goal difference.

7th Al Mabarrah0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
8th Shabab Al Sahel0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
9th Tadamon Sour0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
10th Al Akhaa Al Ahli0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA

Shabab Al Sahel: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Jwaaya FC2 Jul 2026 · Premier League · Away0–0

at Al Ahed28 Jun 2026 · Premier League · Away2–4

v Reyady Abaseya24 Jun 2026 · Premier League · Home3–0

v Racing16 Jun 2026 · Premier League · Home2–0

Tadamon Sour: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Reyady Abaseya29 Jul 2026 · Premier League · Away1–2

v Racing21 Jul 2026 · Premier League · Home1–0

v Reyady Abaseya17 Jul 2026 · Premier League · Home0–0

at Racing10 Jul 2026 · Premier League · Away3–1

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Meetings: 23
Shabab Al Sahel wins: 11
Draws: 5
Tadamon Sour wins: 7

Record shown: November 2011 to January 2026.

Average goals 2.1 (Shabab Al Sahel 1.3, Tadamon Sour 0.9). Draws 22%, both teams scored 39%, over 2.5 goals 39%.

31 Jan 2026 · Premier LeagueTadamon Sour1–2Shabab Al Sahel

21 Nov 2025 · CupTadamon Sour2–1Shabab Al Sahel

27 Sept 2025 · Premier LeagueShabab Al Sahel0–0Tadamon Sour

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Shabab Al Sahel at home and Tadamon Sour away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Shabab Al Sahel

Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 5 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost · 11 scored, 13 conceded · 1.10 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Home, last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 2 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (9)5 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 12 scored, 6 conceded · 1.89 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 2

Shabab Al Sahel
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Shabab Al Sahel	Tadamon Sour
League position	8th	9th
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.10	0.80
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	1.30	1.30
Clean sheets	3	3

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Shabab Al Sahel: 98 days since their last match (2 Jul 2026).
Tadamon Sour: 71 days since their last match (29 Jul 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Shabab Al Sahel

None reported.

Tadamon Sour

None reported.

Show full table

1st Al Ahed0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
2nd Tripoli SC0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
3rd Al Ansar0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
4th Al Hikma0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
5th Al Nejmeh0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
6th Safa0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
7th Al Mabarrah0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
8th Shabab Al Sahel0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
9th Tadamon Sour0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
10th Al Akhaa Al Ahli0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
11th Reyady Abaseya0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0
12th Jwaaya FC0 points from 0 games · goal difference 0

#	Team	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Al Ahed	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Tripoli SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Al Ansar	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Al Hikma

Last 5 (5)	5	2	1	2	7	5	+2	7	1.40	3	2
Last 10 (10)	10	3	2	5	11	13	-2	11	1.10	3	4
Home, last 5 (5)	5	3	1	1	8	2	+6	10	2.00	3	1
Home, last 10 (9)	9	5	2	2	12	6	+6	17	1.89	4	2

Tadamon Sour

Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 6 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost · 8 scored, 13 conceded · 1.10 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Away, last 5 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 5 scored, 9 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 10 (10)1 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost · 7 scored, 17 conceded · 0.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 5

Tadamon Sour
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	2	1	2	5	6	-1	7	1.40	2	2
Last 10 (10)	10	3	2	5	8	13	-5	11	1.10	3	4
Away, last 5 (5)	5	1	0	4	5	9	-4	3	0.60	0	2
Away, last 10 (10)	10	1	2	7	7	17	-10	5	0.50	1	5

7	Al Mabarrah	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Shabab Al Sahel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Tadamon Sour	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Al Akhaa Al Ahli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Shabab Al Sahel v Tadamon SourShabab Al SahelHomevTadamon SourAwayShabab Al SahelHomevTadamon SourAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Picks for Thursday 8 October

Other picks (22)

Shabab Al Sahel v Tadamon SourShabab Al SahelHomevTadamon SourAwayShabab Al SahelHomevTadamon SourAway

Our model's chances

What the data says

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Shabab Al Sahel: recent fixtures

Tadamon Sour: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Shabab Al Sahel

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Shabab Al Sahel

Tadamon Sour

Tadamon Sour

Shabab Al Sahel v Tadamon Sour

Shabab Al Sahel v Tadamon Sour