Tersana v Kahraba IsmailiaTersanaHomevKahraba IsmailiaAwayTersanaHomevKahraba IsmailiaAway
Final score Tersana 2, Kahraba Ismailia 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Tersana win 50%, Draw 30%, Kahraba Ismailia win 21%.
50%
Tersana win
30%
Draw
21%
Kahraba Ismailia win
What the data says
Tersana host Kahraba Ismailia in the Second League, Egypt.
Our model gives Tersana a 50% chance of winning, a draw 30% and Kahraba Ismailia 21%.
The model expects Tersana to score 1.3 goals and Kahraba Ismailia 0.8.
Tersana have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Kahraba Ismailia have won 5 of 6.
Top factors
Tersana sit 8th with 12 points; Kahraba Ismailia sit 2nd with 16 points.
Tersana have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Kahraba Ismailia 12 from 5.
At home, Tersana have taken 7 points from their last 5; away, Kahraba Ismailia have taken 8 from their last 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Tersana win
50% · price 3.42
Draw
30% · price 2.71
Kahraba Ismailia win
21% · price 2.24
Over 1.5 goals
66% · price 1.62
Over 2.5 goals
41% · price 2.95
Both teams score
47% · price 2.34
Expected goals (our model)
Tersana 1.3, Kahraba Ismailia 0.8
These chances include head-to-head context at 4% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Tersana 49% to win.
Key factors
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Tersana sit 8th with 12 points; Kahraba Ismailia sit 2nd with 16 points.
Tersana have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Kahraba Ismailia 12 from 5.
At home, Tersana have taken 7 points from their last 5; away, Kahraba Ismailia have taken 8 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 4 meetings Tersana won 3, Kahraba Ismailia won 1 and 0 were drawn.
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Second League, before kick-off.
Tersana sit 8th with 12 points; Kahraba Ismailia sit 2nd with 16. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of Kahraba Ismailia.
1stHaras El Hodood17 points from 7 games · goal difference +8
2ndKahraba Ismailia16 points from 7 games · goal difference +9
3rdMasar16 points from 7 games · goal difference +8
7thAL Nasr SC12 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
8thTersana12 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
9thEl Mansura11 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Haras El Hodood
7
5
2
0
10
2
+8
17
2
Kahraba Ismailia
7
5
1
1
13
4
+9
16
3
Masar
7
5
1
1
13
5
+8
16
7
AL Nasr SC
7
3
3
1
10
5
+5
12
8
Tersana
7
3
3
1
6
5
+1
12
9
El Mansura
7
3
2
2
8
7
+1
Show full tableShow less
1stHaras El Hodood17 points from 7 games · goal difference +8
2ndKahraba Ismailia16 points from 7 games · goal difference +9
3rdMasar16 points from 7 games · goal difference +8
4thItesalat15 points from 7 games · goal difference +6
5thMaleyet Kafr El Zayiat14 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
6thPharco13 points from 7 games · goal difference +2
7thAL Nasr SC12 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
8thTersana12 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
9thEl Mansura11 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
10thEl Seka El Hadid10 points from 7 games · goal difference -2
11th
Tersana: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
WWonat Pharco1 Oct 2026 · Second League · Away1–0
DDrewv Baladiyyat Al Mehalla25 Sept 2026 · Second League · Home1–1
WWonat El Dakhleya17 Sept 2026 · Second League · Away2–1
DDrewv El Mansura11 Sept 2026 · Second League · Home1–1
LLostat Proxy4 Sept 2026 · Second League · Away0–2
Show last 10 matchesShowing 10
DDrewv La Viena FC27 Aug 2026 · Second League · Home0–0
WWonat El Seka El Hadid21 Aug 2026 · Second League · Away1–0
DDrewat El Entag EL Harby14 May 2026 · Second League · Away1–1
DDrewv Abu Qair Semad7 May 2026 · Second League · Home0–0
DDrewat Tanta SC30 Apr 2026 · Second League · Away2–2
Kahraba Ismailia: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
WWonv Mega Sport2 Oct 2026 · Second League · Home2–0
WWonv Pharco24 Sept 2026 · Second League · Home3–1
WWonat Baladiyyat Al Mehalla18 Sept 2026 · Second League · Away1–0
WWonv El Dakhleya10 Sept 2026 · Second League · Home3–0
LLostat El Mansura3 Sept 2026 · Second League · Away0–2
Show last 10 matchesShowing 10
WWonv Proxy27 Aug 2026 · Second League · Home3–0
DDrewat La Viena FC20 Aug 2026 · Second League · Away1–1
DDrewat Masr29 May 2026 · Premier League · Away1–1
DDrewv El Mokawloon23 May 2026 · Premier League · Home2–2
LLostv Haras El Hodood18 May 2026 · Premier League · Home0–2
Head to head
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings
4
Tersana wins
3
Draws
0
Kahraba Ismailia wins
1
Record shown: November 2022 to April 2025.
15 Apr 2025 · Second LeagueKahraba Ismailia2–1Tersana
8 Dec 2024 · Second LeagueTersana2–1Kahraba Ismailia
17 Mar 2023 · Second League - Group BKahraba Ismailia0–1Tersana
25 Nov 2022 · Second League - Group BTersana1–0Kahraba Ismailia
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Tersana at home and Kahraba Ismailia away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Tersana
Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)3 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 8 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Home, last 5 (5)1 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Home, last 10 (9)2 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost · 11 scored, 8 conceded · 1.44 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Tersana
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
2
2
1
5
5
0
8
1.60
1
1
Last 10 (10)
10
3
6
1
9
8
+1
15
1.50
4
3
Home, last 5 (5)
5
1
4
0
5
3
+2
7
1.40
2
2
Home, last 10 (9)
9
2
7
0
11
8
+3
13
1.44
4
3
Kahraba Ismailia
Last 5 (5)4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 3 conceded · 2.40 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)5 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 16 scored, 9 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (7)4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 6 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Kahraba Ismailia
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
4
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Tersana
Kahraba Ismailia
League position
8th
2nd
Points per game
1.71
2.29
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)
0.90
1.60
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)
0.80
0.90
Clean sheets
4
4
Schedule and rest
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Tersana: 7 days since their last match (1 Oct 2026).
Kahraba Ismailia: 6 days since their last match (2 Oct 2026).
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Tersana
None reported.
Kahraba Ismailia
None reported.
Counter-signals
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
Tersana sit below Kahraba Ismailia in the table (8th against 2nd).
Kahraba Ismailia have the better recent form: 12 points from 5 against 8 from 5.
Picks for Thursday 8 October
Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.