Tractor Sazi v Esteghlal FCTractor SaziHomevEsteghlal FCAwayTractor SaziHomevEsteghlal FCAway
Final score Tractor Sazi 1, Esteghlal FC 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Tractor Sazi win 39%, Draw 36%, Esteghlal FC win 25%.
39%
Tractor Sazi win
36%
Draw
25%
Esteghlal FC win
What the data says
Tractor Sazi host Esteghlal FC in the Persian Gulf Pro League, Iran.
Our model gives Tractor Sazi a 39% chance of winning, a draw 36% and Esteghlal FC 25%.
The model expects Tractor Sazi to score 0.9 goals and Esteghlal FC 0.6.
Tractor Sazi have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Esteghlal FC have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
Tractor Sazi sit 1st with 16 points; Esteghlal FC sit 2nd with 15 points.
Tractor Sazi have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches; Esteghlal FC 9 from 5.
At home, Tractor Sazi have taken 12 points from their last 5; away, Esteghlal FC have taken 8 from their last 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:17 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Tractor Sazi win
39% · price 2.42
Draw
36% · price 2.95
Esteghlal FC win
25% · price 2.85
Over 1.5 goals
56%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Both teams score
39%
Expected goals (our model)
Tractor Sazi 0.9, Esteghlal FC 0.6
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Tractor Sazi 39% to win.
Key factors
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Tractor Sazi sit 1st with 16 points; Esteghlal FC sit 2nd with 15 points.
Tractor Sazi have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches; Esteghlal FC 9 from 5.
At home, Tractor Sazi have taken 12 points from their last 5; away, Esteghlal FC have taken 8 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 23 meetings Tractor Sazi won 8, Esteghlal FC won 11 and 4 were drawn.
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Persian Gulf Pro League, before kick-off.
Tractor Sazi sit 1st with 16 points; Esteghlal FC sit 2nd with 15. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Esteghlal FC.
1stTractor Sazi16 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
2ndEsteghlal FC15 points from 7 games · goal difference +8
3rdPersepolis FC13 points from 6 games · goal difference +9
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Tractor Sazi
7
5
1
1
8
1
+7
16
2
Esteghlal FC
7
4
3
0
9
1
+8
15
3
Persepolis FC
6
4
1
1
12
3
+9
13
Show full tableShow less
1stTractor Sazi16 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
2ndEsteghlal FC15 points from 7 games · goal difference +8
3rdPersepolis FC13 points from 6 games · goal difference +9
4thAluminium Arak12 points from 6 games · goal difference +5
5thSepahan FC10 points from 6 games · goal difference +1
6thGol Gohar10 points from 7 games · goal difference 0
7thFoolad FC9 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
8thPaykan8 points from 7 games · goal difference -1
9thNassaji Mazandaran8 points from 7 games · goal difference -2
10thChadormalu SC8 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
11th
Tractor Sazi: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
LLostat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai14 Sept 2026 · AFC Champions League Elite · Away0–1
LLostat Esteghlal Khuzestan10 Sept 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Away0–1
WWonv Gol Gohar5 Sept 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home1–0
DDrewat Shams Azar Qazvin1 Sept 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Away0–0
WWonat Chadormalu SC28 Aug 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Away2–0
Show last 10 matchesShowing 10
WWonv Persepolis FC24 Aug 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home1–0
WWonat Sepahan FC18 Aug 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Away2–0
WWonv Paykan14 Aug 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home2–0
LLostv Shabab Al Ahli Dubai14 Apr 2026 · AFC Champions League Elite · Home0–3
WWonv Gol Gohar26 Feb 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home
Esteghlal FC: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
WWonv Al Sadd14 Sept 2026 · AFC Champions League Elite · Home3–0
WWonv Paykan10 Sept 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home1–0
DDrewat Aluminium Arak6 Sept 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Away0–0
DDrewv Persepolis FC2 Sept 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home1–1
DDrewat Foolad FC28 Aug 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Away0–0
Show last 10 matchesShowing 10
WWonv Sepahan FC23 Aug 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home2–0
WWonat Nassaji Mazandaran18 Aug 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Away1–0
WWonv Mes Shahr-e Babak14 Aug 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home4–0
WWonv Fajr Sepasi27 Feb 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Home2–1
WWonat Mes Rafsanjan22 Feb 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro League · Away
Head to head
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings
23
Tractor Sazi wins
8
Draws
4
Esteghlal FC wins
11
Record shown: December 2016 to January 2026.
Average goals 2.3 (Tractor Sazi 0.9, Esteghlal FC 1.4). Draws 17%, both teams scored 39%, over 2.5 goals 43%.
18 Jan 2026 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueEsteghlal FC0–0Tractor Sazi
19 Aug 2025 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueTractor Sazi0–1Esteghlal FC
11 Aug 2025 · Super CupTractor Sazi2–1Esteghlal FC
4 Apr 2025 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueTractor Sazi2–1Esteghlal FC
31 Oct 2024 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueEsteghlal FC0–2Tractor Sazi
Show last 10 meetingsShowing 10
1 May 2024 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueTractor Sazi0–0Esteghlal FC
11 Nov 2023 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueEsteghlal FC2–0Tractor Sazi
18 May 2023 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueEsteghlal FC7–1Tractor Sazi
12 Jan 2023 · Hazfi CupEsteghlal FC2–1Tractor Sazi
6 Jan 2023 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueTractor Sazi2–0Esteghlal FC
Show last 20 meetingsShowing 20
18 Feb 2022 · Persian Gulf Pro LeagueTractor Sazi0–1Esteghlal FC
30 Oct 2021 · Persian Gulf Pro League
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Tractor Sazi at home and Esteghlal FC away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Tractor Sazi
Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 2 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Last 10 (10)6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 9 scored, 5 conceded · 1.90 points a game · 7 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Home, last 5 (5)4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.40 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (8)6 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 10 scored, 6 conceded · 2.25 points a game · 5 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Tractor Sazi
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
2
1
2
3
2
+1
7
1.40
3
3
Last 10 (10)
10
6
1
3
9
5
+4
19
1.90
7
4
Home, last 5 (5)
5
4
0
1
5
3
+2
12
2.40
4
1
Home, last 10 (8)
8
6
0
2
10
6
+4
18
2.25
5
2
Esteghlal FC
Last 5 (5)2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 1 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)7 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost · 15 scored, 2 conceded · 2.40 points a game · 8 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 10 (8)3 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 4 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 6 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
Esteghlal FC
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
2
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Tractor Sazi
Esteghlal FC
League position
1st
2nd
Points per game
2.29
2.14
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)
0.90
1.50
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)
0.50
0.20
Clean sheets
7
8
Schedule and rest
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Tractor Sazi: 24 days since their last match (14 Sept 2026).
Esteghlal FC: 24 days since their last match (14 Sept 2026).
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Tractor Sazi
None reported.
Esteghlal FC
None reported.
Counter-signals
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
Esteghlal FC have the better recent form: 9 points from 5 against 7 from 5.
Head-to-head context: Esteghlal FC have won more of the last 23 meetings (11 to 8).
Picks for Thursday 8 October
Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.