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Vila Nova vs Cuiaba prediction, Thursday 8 October: chances and analysis
Back to today's picks
Wed 19:30 EDT · Brazil - Serie B
Vila Nova v Cuiaba Home v Away Home v Away Final score Vila Nova 0, Cuiaba 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances Chances of each result: Vila Nova win 48%, Draw 29%, Cuiaba win 24%.
Vila Nova host Cuiaba in the Serie B, Brazil.
Our model gives Vila Nova a 48% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Cuiaba 24%.
The model expects Vila Nova to score 1.4 goals and Cuiaba 0.9.
Vila Nova have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Cuiaba have won 3 of 6.
Top factors Vila Nova sit 2nd with 57 points; Cuiaba sit 10th with 46 points. Vila Nova have taken 13 points from their last 5 matches; Cuiaba 10 from 5. At home, Vila Nova have taken 15 points from their last 5; away, Cuiaba have taken 7 from their last 5. Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 8 Oct, 00:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more. Picks for Thursday 8 October Thursday 8 October
12 of 17 picks won
3 waiting for a result.
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
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Market
All markets Home win (8) Away win (2) Over 1.5 goals (31) Over 2.5 goals (1) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.18
CCH Corpus Christi FWA Fort Wayne 1 3
Wed 20:30 EDT · USA - USL League One
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
SKA Shakhter Karagandy AON Akademiya Ontustik 2 0
06:00 EDT · Kazakhstan - 1. Division
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Price when published 1.16
RFA Respublika FA YAY Yaypan 2 1
06:30 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
KAT Kattaqurgon MET Metalourg
07:00 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
IWX India W RWX Russia W 0 4
08:00 EDT · World - Friendlies Women
See the match win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Price when published 1.07
ARA Aral QIZ Qiziriq
09:00 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Result pending
win chance when published
Our model · No price
HAY Hayq PYU Pyunik II
09:00 EDT · Armenia - First League
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
AWX Alingsås W EWX Elfsborg W 0 3
12:30 EDT · Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
EWX Enskede W BWX Brommapojkarna W 1 2
13:00 EDT · Sweden - Svenska Cupen - Women
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.21
TIR Tira INE Ironi Nesher 2 1
13:00 EDT · Israel - Liga Alef
See the match Atlético Mineiro U20 win
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
AMI Atlético Mineiro U20 MGX Athletic Club MG U20 2 1
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 59%
Price when published 1.51
GRE Grêmio U20 OPR Operário PR U20 1 3
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 56%
Price when published 1.61
CRU Cruzeiro U20 GOI Goiás U20 1 2
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
CSA CSA U20 SCR Santa Cruz AC U20 0 0
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match Belgrano Córdoba Res. win
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
BCO Belgrano Córdoba Res. SMS San Martín San Juan Res. 3 2
14:00 EDT · Argentina - Reserve League
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.24
TXA Txantrea COR Cortes 0 0
14:00 EDT · Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.25
UMO UCV Moquegua CIE Cienciano 0 2
14:00 EDT · Peru - Primera División
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.18
AAN Al Ansar AHI Al Hikma 2 1
14:45 EDT · Lebanon - Premier League
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
FLA Flamengo U20 VGA Vasco da Gama U20 2 2
15:30 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match win chance when published
Our model · No price
SPA São Paulo U20 APR Athletico PR U20 3 1
16:30 EDT · Brazil - Copa do Brasil U20
See the match Other picks (22) Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all. Not in the summary above.
17 of 22 picks won among these
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.28
UMA UNAN Managua RES Real Estelí 1 0
Wed 20:00 EDT · Nicaragua - Primera Division
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
YSE Yelimay Semey 2 ARY Arys 2 3
06:00 EDT · Kazakhstan - 1. Division
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
WGE WIT Georgia GON Gonio 2 0
07:00 EDT · Georgia - Liga 3
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
SBA Səbail KAR Karvan 1 1
07:30 EDT · Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
OZG Ozgon DBI Dordoi Bishkek 3 2
09:00 EDT · Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
ALG Alga ASI Asiagoal 3 2
09:00 EDT · Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
See the match Over 2.5 goals: 3 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
ROS Rosenborg U19 LMX Lillestrøm U19 2 1
09:00 EDT · Norway - Nasjonal U19 Champions League
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
GAZ Gazalkent PAK Pakhtakor II 3 2
09:00 EDT · Uzbekistan - Pro League A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · No price
BUR Burgan AJA Al Jazira 0 1
10:50 EDT · Kuwait - Division 1
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.20
HHE HJK Helsinki VPS VPS 6 0
11:00 EDT · Finland - Veikkausliiga
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 73%
Price when published 1.22
HIK Hapoel Ironi Karmiel HTH Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 1 0
11:00 EDT · Israel - Liga Alef
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Price when published 1.21
HYE Holon Yermiyahu NJE Nordia Jerusalem 5 0
12:40 EDT · Israel - Liga Alef
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
CCL CFR 1907 Cluj UCL Universitatea Cluj 1 3
13:30 EDT · Romania - Liga I
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 78%
Price when published 1.19
VAN Vänersborgs FK KUM Kumla 3 3
13:30 EDT · Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
REB River Ebro PRA Pradejón 1 2
14:00 EDT · Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
PIC Picuiense SPB Sport PB 1 3
14:00 EDT · Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 77%
Price when published 1.20
SRO Shamrock Rovers DRO Drogheda United 3 1
15:00 EDT · Ireland - Premier Division
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Price when published 1.30
BTH Bentín Tacna Heroica CAM Carlos A. Mannucci 0 0
16:00 EDT · Peru - Segunda División
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 72%
Price when published 1.29
DEP Depor FC RCA Real Cartagena 2 2
16:30 EDT · Colombia - Primera B
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 76%
Price when published 1.23
SAN Santos FLA Flamengo 2 2
18:30 EDT · Brazil - Serie A
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Lost
win chance when published
Our model · No price
GUA Guarabira AES Auto Esporte 0 1
18:30 EDT · Brazil - Paraibano 2
See the match Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
win chance when published
Our model · No price
FAS FAS ALI Alianza 2 1
18:30 EDT · El Salvador - Primera Division
See the match
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model) Vila Nova 1.4, Cuiaba 0.9 These chances include head-to-head context at 9% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Vila Nova 50% to win.
Context only Facts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Vila Nova sit 2nd with 57 points; Cuiaba sit 10th with 46 points. Vila Nova have taken 13 points from their last 5 matches; Cuiaba 10 from 5. At home, Vila Nova have taken 15 points from their last 5; away, Cuiaba have taken 7 from their last 5. Head-to-head context: in their last 13 meetings Vila Nova won 4, Cuiaba won 5 and 4 were drawn. Context only Table position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Serie B, before kick-off.
Vila Nova sit 2nd with 57 points; Cuiaba sit 10th with 46. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of Vila Nova.
1st Juventude 59 points from 32 games · goal difference +18 2nd Vila Nova 57 points from 31 games · goal difference +13 3rd Novorizontino 54 points from 31 games · goal difference +25 9th Operario-PR 48 points from 31 games · goal difference +2 10th Cuiaba 46 points from 31 games · goal difference +7 11th Goias 45 points from 32 games · goal difference -8 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 37 19 +18 59 2 Vila Nova 31 17 6 8 44 31 +13 57 3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 52 27 +25 54 9 Operario-PR 31 13 9 9 43 41 +2 48 10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 32 25 +7 46 11 Goias 32 13 6 13 32 40 -8
Show full table Show less 1st Juventude 59 points from 32 games · goal difference +18 2nd Vila Nova 57 points from 31 games · goal difference +13 3rd Novorizontino 54 points from 31 games · goal difference +25 4th Criciuma 53 points from 31 games · goal difference +6 5th Fortaleza EC 53 points from 31 games · goal difference +9 6th Atletico Goianiense 52 points from 31 games · goal difference +12 7th Sport Recife 50 points from 32 games · goal difference +10 8th CRB 48 points from 31 games · goal difference +2 9th Operario-PR 48 points from 31 games · goal difference +2 10th Cuiaba 46 points from 31 games · goal difference +7 11th Goias Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
W Won at Botafogo SP 3 Oct 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–0
W Won v Londrina 25 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–0
W Won v America Mineiro 18 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
D Drew at Avai 15 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–1
W Won v Goias 10 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–0
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 L Lost at Athletic Club 4 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–5
W Won v Ceara 30 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–0
D Drew at Operario-PR 23 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–0
W Won v Ponte Preta 19 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 6–0
W Won at Atletico Goianiense 15 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 2–0
Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
W Won v Ponte Preta 3 Oct 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–0
L Lost at CRB 27 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–3
W Won v Nautico Recife 22 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 3–0
D Drew at Novorizontino 13 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–1
W Won v Athletic Club 8 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home 3–0
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 L Lost at Criciuma 4 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–2
W Won at Botafogo SP 29 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 2–1
D Drew v Goias 22 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–1
W Won v Operario-PR 19 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
W Won at Ceara 15 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away 3–1
Partly in the model The model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings 13
Vila Nova wins 4
Draws 4
Cuiaba wins 5 Record shown: May 2015 to June 2026.
Average goals 2.1 (Vila Nova 1.1, Cuiaba 1.1). Draws 31%, both teams scored 38%, over 2.5 goals 31%.
14 Jun 2026 · Serie B Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova
24 Sept 2025 · Serie B Vila Nova 2–2 Cuiaba
27 May 2025 · Serie B Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova
11 May 2024 · Copa Verde Cuiaba 4–2 Vila Nova
17 Apr 2024 · Copa Verde Vila Nova 2–0 Cuiaba
Show last 10 meetings Showing 10 22 Mar 2023 · Copa Verde Cuiaba 1–1 Vila Nova
15 Mar 2023 · Copa Verde Vila Nova 0–2 Cuiaba
8 Feb 2021 · Copa Verde Vila Nova 3–0 Cuiaba
5 Feb 2021 · Copa Verde Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova
30 Nov 2019 · Serie B Cuiaba 1–2 Vila Nova
Show last 13 meetings Showing 13 27 Aug 2019 · Serie B Vila Nova 0–0 Cuiaba
3 Aug 2015 · Serie C Cuiaba
In the model The model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Vila Nova at home and Cuiaba away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Vila Nova Last 5 (5) 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 1 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 0 Last 10 (10) 7 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 17 scored, 6 conceded · 2.30 points a game · 8 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Home, last 5 (5) 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 13 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 5 clean sheets · failed to score in 0 Home, last 10 (10) 9 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 22 scored, 6 conceded · 2.70 points a game · 6 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Vila Nova Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 4 1 0 7 1 +6 13 2.60 4 0 Last 10 (10) 10 7 2 1 17 6 +11 23 2.30 8 2 Home, last 5 (5) 5 5 0 0 13 0 +13 15 3.00 5 0 Home, last 10 (10) 10 9 0 1 22 6 +16 27 2.70 6 1
Cuiaba Last 5 (5) 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Last 10 (10) 6 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 16 scored, 9 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Away, last 5 (5) 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 8 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Away, last 10 (10) 3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost · 11 scored, 15 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 4 Cuiaba Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 3
Context only Shown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure Vila Nova Cuiaba League position 2nd 10th Points per game 1.84 1.48 Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) 1.70 1.60 Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) 0.60 0.90 Clean sheets 8 4
Context only Rest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Vila Nova: 4 days since their last match (3 Oct 2026). Cuiaba: 4 days since their last match (3 Oct 2026). In the model Missing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Context only Facts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
Head-to-head context: Cuiaba have won more of the last 13 meetings (5 to 4). 45 points from 32 games · goal difference -8
12th São Bernardo 45 points from 32 games · goal difference +10
13th Nautico Recife 42 points from 31 games · goal difference +1
14th Athletic Club 42 points from 32 games · goal difference +1
15th Ceara 39 points from 31 games · goal difference -5
16th Botafogo SP 35 points from 31 games · goal difference -3
17th Avai 30 points from 31 games · goal difference -12
18th Londrina 28 points from 31 games · goal difference -6
19th America Mineiro 17 points from 31 games · goal difference -31
20th Ponte Preta 13 points from 32 games · goal difference -51 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 37 19 +18 59 2 Vila Nova 31 17 6 8 44 31 +13 57 3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 52 27 +25 54 4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 33 27 +6 53 5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 36 27 +9 53 6 Atletico Goianiense 31 14 10 7 39 27 +12 52 7 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 44 34 +10 50 8 CRB 31 14 6 11 46 44 +2 48 9 Operario-PR 31 13 9 9 43 41 +2 48 10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 32 25 +7 46 11 Goias 32 13 6 13 32 40 -8 45 12 São Bernardo 32 12 9 11 44 34 +10 45 13 Nautico Recife 31 11 9 11 39 38 +1 42 14 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 38 37 +1 42 15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 34 39 -5 39 16 Botafogo SP 31 9 8 14 34 37 -3 35 17 Avai 31 8 6 17 30 42 -12 30 18 Londrina 31 7 7 17 39 45 -6 28 19 America Mineiro 31 4 5 22 21 52 -31 17 20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 17 68 -51 13
Show last 20 matches Showing 20
L Lost v Sport Recife 8 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 0–1
L Lost at CRB 27 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–2
W Won v Fortaleza EC 22 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–1
L Lost at Criciuma 18 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–2
L Lost at Juventude 10 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–1
W Won v São Bernardo 6 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–1
L Lost at Novorizontino 26 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–2
W Won v Nautico Recife 20 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Home 4–3
L Lost at Cuiaba 14 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–1
W Won v Botafogo SP 8 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
Show last 20 matches Showing 20
D Drew v Fortaleza EC 9 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–1
D Drew at Sport Recife 27 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 1–1
L Lost v Atletico Goianiense 23 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 0–1
L Lost at Juventude 17 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–2
D Drew at São Bernardo 12 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Away 2–2
W Won v America Mineiro 2 Jul 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
D Drew v Londrina 25 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Home 2–2
L Lost at Avai 21 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Away 0–1
W Won v Vila Nova 14 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Home 1–0
W Won at Ponte Preta 9 Jun 2026 · Serie B · Away 2–1
1–1
Vila Nova
17 May 2015 · Serie C Vila Nova 1–0 Cuiaba
Last 10 (10) 10 6 2 2 16 9 +7 20 2.00 4 2
Away, last 5 (5) 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7 1.40 0 2
Away, last 10 (10) 10 3 3 4 11 15 -4 12 1.20 0 4