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· Spain - Segunda División
AD Ceuta FC v SabadellHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: AD Ceuta FC win 42%, Draw 29%, Sabadell win 29%.
AD Ceuta FC host Sabadell in the Segunda División, Spain.
Our model gives AD Ceuta FC a 42% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Sabadell 29%.
The model expects AD Ceuta FC to score 1.3 goals and Sabadell 1.0.
AD Ceuta FC have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Sabadell have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- AD Ceuta FC sit 21st with 5 points; Sabadell sit 7th with 13 points.
- AD Ceuta FC have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Sabadell 8 from 5.
- At home, AD Ceuta FC have taken 4 points from their last 3; away, Sabadell have taken 1 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- AD Ceuta FC win
- 42% · price 3.08
Sabadell win29% · price 2.26 Over 1.5 goals71% · price 1.31 Over 2.5 goals45% · price 2.05 Both teams score50% · price 1.76 Expected goals (our model)AD Ceuta FC 1.3, Sabadell 1.0 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Segunda División, before kick-off.
AD Ceuta FC sit 21st with 5 points; Sabadell sit 7th with 13. A gap of 13 in goal difference, in favour of Sabadell.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 6th Burgos14 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
- 7th Sabadell13 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Sporting Gijon13 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
- 20th FC Andorra7 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 21st AD Ceuta FC5 points from 8 games · goal difference -11
- 22nd Albacete1 points from 8 games · goal difference -10
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 6 | Burgos | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | FC Andorra | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Eibar21 points from 8 games · goal difference +11
- 2nd Castellón20 points from 8 games · goal difference +12
- 3rd Almeria18 points from 8 games · goal difference +8
- 4th Girona14 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Mallorca14 points from 8 games · goal difference +5
- 6th Burgos14 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
- 7th Sabadell13 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Sporting Gijon13 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
- 9th Granada CF11 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
- 10th Oviedo11 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Las Palmas11 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Castellón4 Oct 2026 · Segunda División · Away1–1
WWonv Real Sociedad II26 Sept 2026 · Segunda División · Home3–1
DDrewv Valladolid20 Sept 2026 · Segunda División · Home1–1
LLostat Burgos11 Sept 2026 · Segunda División · Away1–3
LLostv Celta de Vigo II5 Sept 2026 · Segunda División · Home0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Mallorca30 Aug 2026 · Segunda División · Away0–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv FC Andorra4 Oct 2026 · Segunda División · Home0–0
DDrewat Celta de Vigo II26 Sept 2026 · Segunda División · Away1–1
WWonv Oviedo20 Sept 2026 · Segunda División · Home3–1
LLostat Mallorca13 Sept 2026 · Segunda División · Away0–2
WWonv Cordoba7 Sept 2026 · Segunda División · Home3–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Almeria29 Aug 2026 · Segunda División · Home1–0
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then AD Ceuta FC at home and Sabadell away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
AD Ceuta FC
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 8 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 11 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
AD Ceuta FC| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Sabadell
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 6 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 6 conceded · 1.83 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (2)0 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 3 conceded · 0.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)0 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 3 conceded · 0.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Sabadell| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
AD Ceuta FC at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Sabadell away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | AD Ceuta FC | Sabadell |
|---|
| League position | 21st | 7th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.63 | 1.63 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 1.33 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
AD Ceuta FC
None reported.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
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Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Castellón | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 20 |
| 3 | Almeria | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 18 |
| 4 | Girona | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 5 | Mallorca | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Burgos | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Granada CF | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Oviedo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Leganes | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Valladolid | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Cordoba | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad II | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Eldense | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Celta de Vigo II | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 8 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 20 | FC Andorra | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 | 1.83 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
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