Know the chances before you stake.
18+ only. Chances are estimates, not guarantees.
Help and legal
We never sell tips, never ask for payment, and never contact you on WhatsApp or Telegram. Anyone who does is not us.
Data provided by API-SPORTS.
Made with
1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysis
Back to today's picks
Sat 09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV Home v Away Home v Away Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
Add to slip
Our model's chances Chances of each result: 1899 Hoffenheim win 70%, Draw 16%, Hamburger SV win 14%.
1899 Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga, Germany.
Our model gives an 85% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 85%.
The model expects 1899 Hoffenheim to score 2.7 goals and Hamburger SV 1.0.
4 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of Hamburger SV's last 4 did.
Top factors At home, 1899 Hoffenheim have scored 2.2 goals a game and conceded 1.0 in their last 5 home matches. Away, Hamburger SV have scored 1.6 goals a game and conceded 1.8 in their last 5 away matches. The published pick of Over 1.5 goals in the match is supported by 1899 Hoffenheim's recent form, having had three or more goals in each of their last 4 league matches and both teams scoring in each of their last 4 league matches. This is also backed up by Hamburger SV's recent form, having had two or more goals in each of their last 4 league matches and three or more goals in each of their last 3 league matches. An 85% chance still means this pick loses about 1 time in 7. The published pick of Over 1.5 goals in the match has a published win chance of 85%.
Summary written by AI from the statistics above.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 00:29 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
1899 Hoffenheim win 70% · price 1.42
Hamburger SV win 14% · price 6.73
Over 1.5 goals 85% · price 1.10
Over 2.5 goals 67% · price 1.40
Both teams score 55% · price 1.55
Expected goals (our model) 1899 Hoffenheim 2.7, Hamburger SV 1.0 Context only Facts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
1899 Hoffenheim sit 14th with 3 points; Hamburger SV sit 16th with 3 points. 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches; Hamburger SV 6 from 5. At home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 12 points from their last 5; away, Hamburger SV have taken 9 from their last 5. Head-to-head context: in their last 18 meetings 1899 Hoffenheim won 8, Hamburger SV won 7 and 3 were drawn. 1899 Hoffenheim have had 20 days since their last match; Hamburger SV 6. 1899 Hoffenheim have 2 players out or doubtful; Hamburger SV have 5. Context only Table position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Bundesliga, before kick-off.
1899 Hoffenheim sit 14th with 3 points; Hamburger SV sit 16th with 3. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of 1899 Hoffenheim.
13th 1. FC Köln 4 points from 4 games · goal difference -3 14th 1899 Hoffenheim 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -3 15th VfB Stuttgart 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -3 16th Hamburger SV 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -11 17th Union Berlin 1 points from 4 games · goal difference -13 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 13 1. FC Köln 4 1 1 2 6 9 -3 4 14 1899 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7 10 -3 3 15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6 9 -3 3 16 Hamburger SV 4 1 0 3 2 13 -11 3 17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4 17 -13 1
Show full table Show less 1st Borussia Dortmund 13 points from 5 games · goal difference +7 2nd Bayern München 10 points from 4 games · goal difference +12 3rd SC Freiburg 10 points from 4 games · goal difference +9 4th Werder Bremen 8 points from 5 games · goal difference 0 5th FC Augsburg 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +5 6th Bayer Leverkusen 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +5 7th FSV Mainz 05 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +4 8th SV Elversberg 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +1 9th RB Leipzig 6 points from 4 games · goal difference +4 10th Eintracht Frankfurt 5 points from 4 games · goal difference -1 11th Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
L Lost at SC Paderborn 07 20 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 1–3
L Lost at OFI 17 Sept 2026 · UEFA Europa League · Away 0–2
W Won v VfB Stuttgart 12 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 2–1
L Lost v Borussia Dortmund 5 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 2–3
L Lost at 1. FC Köln 29 Aug 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 2–3
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 W Won at Erzgebirge Aue 22 Aug 2026 · DFB Pokal · Away 4–0
D Drew at Tottenham 16 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 2–2
L Lost at Tottenham 15 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 0–3
W Won v Karlsruher SC 1 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–0
W Won v Holstein Kiel 29 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–1
Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
W Won v FC Copenhagen 4 Oct 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 2–0
W Won v 1. FC Köln 19 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 2–1
L Lost at RB Leipzig 13 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 0–5
L Lost v FSV Mainz 05 6 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 0–5
L Lost at Borussia Dortmund 29 Aug 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 0–2
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 W Won at Verl 24 Aug 2026 · DFB Pokal · Away 3–0
W Won at Toulouse 15 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 2–1
D Drew v Lille 8 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 2–2
L Lost v Everton 1 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 1–2
W Won at 1. FC Heidenheim 25 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 3–1
Partly in the model The model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings 18
1899 Hoffenheim wins 8
Draws 3
Hamburger SV wins 7 Record shown: November 2010 to April 2026.
Average goals 3.1 (1899 Hoffenheim 1.8, Hamburger SV 1.3). Draws 17%, both teams scored 50%, over 2.5 goals 67%.
25 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga Hamburger SV 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim
13 Dec 2025 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SV
14 Apr 2018 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 2–0 Hamburger SV
26 Nov 2017 · Bundesliga Hamburger SV 3–0 1899 Hoffenheim
8 Apr 2017 · Bundesliga Hamburger SV 2–1 1899 Hoffenheim
Show last 10 meetings Showing 10 20 Nov 2016 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV
19 Mar 2016 · Bundesliga Hamburger SV 1–3 1899 Hoffenheim
23 Oct 2015 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 Hamburger SV
14 Mar 2015 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Hamburger SV
19 Oct 2014 · Bundesliga Hamburger SV 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim
Show last 18 meetings Showing 18 1 Feb 2014 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Hamburger SV
17 Aug 2013 · Bundesliga
In the model The model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then 1899 Hoffenheim at home and Hamburger SV away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
1899 Hoffenheim Last 5 (5) 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 7 scored, 12 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Last 10 (10) 4 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost · 19 scored, 18 conceded · 1.30 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Home, last 5 (5) 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 11 scored, 5 conceded · 2.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0 Home, last 10 (9) 5 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 20 scored, 16 conceded · 1.78 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0 1899 Hoffenheim Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 1 0 4 7 12 -5 3 0.60 0 1 Last 10 (10) 10 4 1 5 19 18 +1 13 1.30 2 2 Home, last 5 (5) 5 4 0 1 11 5 +6 12 2.40 2 0 Home, last 10 (9) 9 5 1 3 20 16 +4 16 1.78 2 0
Hamburger SV Last 5 (5) 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 13 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3 Last 10 (10) 5 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 15 scored, 19 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3 Away, last 5 (5) 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 9 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2 Away, last 10 (10) 4 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost · 14 scored, 21 conceded · 1.30 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3 Hamburger SV Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 2
Context only Shown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure 1899 Hoffenheim Hamburger SV League position 14th 16th Points per game 0.75 0.75 Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) 1.90 1.50 Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) 1.80 1.90 Clean sheets 2 2
Context only Rest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
1899 Hoffenheim: 20 days since their last match (20 Sept 2026). Hamburger SV: 6 days since their last match (4 Oct 2026). In the model Missing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
1899 Hoffenheim Bernardo · doubtful, achilles tendon injury A. Hajdari · doubtful, muscle injury Hamburger SV P. Daka · out, thigh injury A. Gronbaek · out, thigh injury A. Rossing-Lelesiit · out, ankle injury M. Vuskovic · out, doping Z. El Ouahdi · doubtful, illness Context only Facts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
Hamburger SV have the better recent form: 6 points from 5 against 3 from 5. Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all. Updating…
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GEN Genoa L L W D L FIO Fiorentina D W W
FC Schalke 04
5 points from 4 games · goal difference -1
12th SC Paderborn 07 4 points from 4 games · goal difference -2
13th 1. FC Köln 4 points from 4 games · goal difference -3
14th 1899 Hoffenheim 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -3
15th VfB Stuttgart 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -3
16th Hamburger SV 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -11
17th Union Berlin 1 points from 4 games · goal difference -13
18th Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 points from 4 games · goal difference -10 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Borussia Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 +7 13 2 Bayern München 4 3 1 0 14 2 +12 10 3 SC Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12 3 +9 10 4 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8 5 FC Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11 6 +5 7 6 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10 5 +5 7 7 FSV Mainz 05 4 2 1 1 10 6 +4 7 8 SV Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8 7 +1 7 9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9 5 +4 6 10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9 10 -1 5 11 FC Schalke 04 4 1 2 1 3 4 -1 5 12 SC Paderborn 07 4 1 1 2 3 5 -2 4 13 1. FC Köln 4 1 1 2 6 9 -3 4 14 1899 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7 10 -3 3 15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6 9 -3 3 16 Hamburger SV 4 1 0 3 2 13 -11 3 17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4 17 -13 1 18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6 16 -10 0
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 W Won at SGV Freiberg 18 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 3–0
L Lost at Borussia Mönchengladbach 16 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 0–4
W Won v Werder Bremen 9 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 1–0
D Drew v VfB Stuttgart 2 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 3–3
W Won at Hamburger SV 25 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 2–1
W Won v Borussia Dortmund 18 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 2–1
D Drew at FC Augsburg 10 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 2–2
L Lost v FSV Mainz 05 4 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 1–2
L Lost v SV Elversberg 26 Mar 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–5
L Lost at RB Leipzig 20 Mar 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 0–5
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 L Lost at Rapid Vienna 18 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 2–3
D Drew at Bayer Leverkusen 16 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 1–1
W Won v SC Freiburg 10 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 3–2
W Won at Eintracht Frankfurt 2 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 2–1
L Lost v 1899 Hoffenheim 25 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 1–2
L Lost at Werder Bremen 18 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 1–3
L Lost at VfB Stuttgart 12 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 0–4
D Drew v FC Augsburg 4 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 1–1
L Lost at Borussia Dortmund 21 Mar 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 2–3
D Drew v 1. FC Köln 14 Mar 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 1–1
Hamburger SV
1–5
1899 Hoffenheim
11 May 2013 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 1–4 Hamburger SV
7 Dec 2012 · Bundesliga Hamburger SV 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim
11 Apr 2012 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 4–0 Hamburger SV
20 Nov 2011 · Bundesliga Hamburger SV 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim
2 Apr 2011 · Bundesliga 1899 Hoffenheim 0–0 Hamburger SV
6 Nov 2010 · Bundesliga Hamburger SV 2–1 1899 Hoffenheim
Last 10 (10) 10 5 1 4 15 19 -4 16 1.60 2 3
Away, last 5 (5) 5 3 0 2 8 9 -1 9 1.80 1 2
Away, last 10 (10) 10 4 1 5 14 21 -7 13 1.30 1 3
L
L
09:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUG FC Augsburg D L D W W BMU Bayern München W W W D W
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF 1899 Hoffenheim L L W L L HAM Hamburger SV W W L L L
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PAD SC Paderborn 07 W W L L D VST VfB Stuttgart W W L L W
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBE Union Berlin W L L L D ELV SV Elversberg L D L W W
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMA FSV Mainz 05 W W L W D BLE Bayer Leverkusen W W D W L
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHE Chelsea L D W L W BOU Bournemouth L W D W D
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MID Middlesbrough D D W L W WOL Wolves W L W D L
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PRE Preston D L L W L MIL Millwall D D L L W
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RAN Rangers W W W W W KIL Kilmarnock D W D D L
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALA Alaves D L L W W AMA Atletico Madrid W W W L L
Last 5 games
10:15 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAE GO Ahead Eagles D D D L W SRO Sparta Rotterdam L L D L D
Last 5 games
10:30 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Starting later (8) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INT Inter W D W L W PAR Parma W L D L L
Last 5 games
12:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLE RB Leipzig L W L L W EFR Eintracht Frankfurt W D W L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MAN Manchester United D L L W D TOT Tottenham L L D D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEY Feyenoord W W L W D AAL AZ Alkmaar W L D W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MAR Maritimo D L L L D POR FC Porto W W W L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSI Fortuna Sittard W W L W W TWE Twente W W W W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJA Ajax D W W L W NNI NEC Nijmegen D L L D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMA Real Madrid L W W W L VIL Villarreal W W L L
D
12:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
12:30 EDT · England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
12:45 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
13:00 EDT · Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
14:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
15:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
15:00 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.