Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Chances of each result: Maritimo win 12%, Draw 18%, FC Porto win 70%.
Maritimo host FC Porto in the Primeira Liga, Portugal.
Our model gives a 78% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 74%.
The model expects Maritimo to score 0.7 goals and FC Porto 2.3.
6 of Maritimo's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of FC Porto's last 6 did.
The published pick of Over 1.5 goals in the match is supported by Maritimo's recent run of having two or more goals in each of their last 6 league matches, as well as their recent away form, where they also had two or more goals in each of their last 4 matches. Additionally, Maritimo's last 6 league results show a mix of wins, draws and losses, but no instances of 0 or 1 goal scored. A 78% chance still means this pick loses about 1 time in 5. Taken together, the numbers point to goals in this match: a 78% win chance for Over 1.5 goals.
Summary written by AI from the statistics above.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 01:23 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primeira Liga, before kick-off.
Maritimo sit 11th with 8 points; FC Porto sit 1st with 21. A gap of 19 in goal difference, in favour of FC Porto.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 18 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: January 2011 to February 2023.
Average goals 2.6 (Maritimo 0.6, FC Porto 2.0). Draws 19%, both teams scored 46%, over 2.5 goals 38%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Maritimo at home and FC Porto away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 | 1.30 | 3 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 | 1.20 | 4 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 1st |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 3.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.10 | 2.20 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 18 |
| 3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 12 |
| 6 |
| +6 |
| 12 |
| 2.40 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 27 | 2.70 | 5 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 12 | 2.40 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 18 | 2.00 | 2 | 2 |
|---|