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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysis
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Sat 10:15 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Alaves v Atletico Madrid Home v Away Home v Away Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
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Our model's chances Chances of each result: Alaves win 35%, Draw 25%, Atletico Madrid win 40%.
Alaves host Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, Spain.
Our model gives a 77% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 75%.
The model expects Alaves to score 1.4 goals and Atletico Madrid 1.5.
3 of Alaves's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Atletico Madrid's last 6 did.
Top factors At home, Alaves have scored 2.4 goals a game and conceded 0.6 in their last 5 home matches. Away, Atletico Madrid have scored 1.8 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches. The published pick of Over 1.5 goals in the match is supported by Alaves' last 6 league results, which include a 5-2 win at home against Osasuna and a 1-0 win at home against Villarreal, both of which featured at least 2 goals. Additionally, Atletico Madrid's last 6 league results include a 4-0 win at home against Osasuna and a 3-0 win away against Real Sociedad, both of which featured at least 3 goals. Atletico Madrid's run of three or more goals in each of their last 6 league matches also suggests a high-scoring potential. A 77% chance still means this pick loses about 1 time in 4. Taken together, the numbers point to goals in this match: a 77% win chance for Over 1.5 goals.
Summary written by AI from the statistics above.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 01:22 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more. Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Alaves win 35% · price 4.31
Atletico Madrid win 40% · price 1.81
Over 1.5 goals 77% · price 1.25
Over 2.5 goals 55% · price 1.84
Both teams score 54% · price 1.74
Expected goals (our model) Alaves 1.4, Atletico Madrid 1.5 Context only Facts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Alaves sit 6th with 11 points; Atletico Madrid sit 2nd with 16 points. Alaves have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches; Atletico Madrid 9 from 5. At home, Alaves have taken 12 points from their last 5; away, Atletico Madrid have taken 9 from their last 5. Head-to-head context: in their last 18 meetings Alaves won 2, Atletico Madrid won 11 and 5 were drawn. Alaves have 3 players out or doubtful; Atletico Madrid have 0. Context only Table position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the La Liga, before kick-off.
Alaves sit 6th with 11 points; Atletico Madrid sit 2nd with 16. A gap of 4 in goal difference, in favour of Atletico Madrid.
1st Barcelona 21 points from 7 games · goal difference +24 2nd Atletico Madrid 16 points from 7 games · goal difference +9 3rd Real Betis 16 points from 7 games · goal difference +2 5th Sevilla 13 points from 7 games · goal difference +1 6th Alaves 11 points from 7 games · goal difference +5 7th Deportivo La Coruna 10 points from 7 games · goal difference +2 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 31 7 +24 21 2 Atletico Madrid 7 5 1 1 16 7 +9 16 3 Real Betis 7 5 1 1 9 7 +2 16 5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 10 9 +1 13 6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 11 6 +5 11 7 Deportivo La Coruna 7 2 4 1 10 8 +2
Show full table Show less 1st Barcelona 21 points from 7 games · goal difference +24 2nd Atletico Madrid 16 points from 7 games · goal difference +9 3rd Real Betis 16 points from 7 games · goal difference +2 4th Real Madrid 15 points from 7 games · goal difference +10 5th Sevilla 13 points from 7 games · goal difference +1 6th Alaves 11 points from 7 games · goal difference +5 7th Deportivo La Coruna 10 points from 7 games · goal difference +2 8th Real Sociedad 10 points from 7 games · goal difference -4 9th Villarreal 8 points from 7 games · goal difference +1 10th Athletic Club 8 points from 6 games · goal difference +1 11th Espanyol Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
D Drew at Athletic Club 19 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Away 0–0
L Lost v Valencia 15 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Home 0–1
L Lost at Racing Santander 12 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Away 1–2
W Won v Osasuna 6 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Home 5–2
W Won v Villarreal 28 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Home 1–0
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 D Drew at Rayo Vallecano 20 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Away 1–1
W Won v Getafe 15 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Home 3–0
D Drew at Racing Santander 7 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 1–1
W Won v Castellón 31 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–0
W Won at Girona 25 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 1–0
Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
W Won v Real Madrid 20 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Home 2–1
W Won v Osasuna 16 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Home 4–0
W Won at Real Sociedad 13 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Away 3–0
L Lost at Liverpool 9 Sept 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Away 1–2
L Lost at Athletic Club 5 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Away 0–3
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 W Won at Sevilla 29 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Away 3–1
D Drew v Villarreal 23 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Home 2–2
W Won v Malaga 19 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Home 2–0
W Won at Marseille 14 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 2–1
L Lost at Manchester City 9 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 1–3
Partly in the model The model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings 18
Alaves wins 2
Draws 5
Atletico Madrid wins 11 Record shown: August 2016 to January 2026.
Average goals 2.1 (Alaves 0.6, Atletico Madrid 1.4). Draws 28%, both teams scored 44%, over 2.5 goals 39%.
18 Jan 2026 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 1–0 Alaves
30 Aug 2025 · La Liga Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid
3 May 2025 · La Liga Alaves 0–0 Atletico Madrid
23 Nov 2024 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 2–1 Alaves
21 Apr 2024 · La Liga Alaves 2–0 Atletico Madrid
Show last 10 meetings Showing 10 29 Oct 2023 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 2–1 Alaves
2 Apr 2022 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 4–1 Alaves
25 Sept 2021 · La Liga Alaves 1–0 Atletico Madrid
21 Mar 2021 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 1–0 Alaves
3 Jan 2021 · La Liga Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid
Show last 18 meetings Showing 18 27 Jun 2020 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 2–1 Alaves
29 Oct 2019 · La Liga Alaves
In the model The model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Alaves at home and Atletico Madrid away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Alaves Last 5 (5) 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 5 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Last 10 (10) 5 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 16 scored, 7 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 5 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Home, last 5 (5) 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 12 scored, 3 conceded · 2.40 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Home, last 10 (10) 6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 19 scored, 11 conceded · 1.90 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Alaves Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 2 1 2 7 5 +2 7 1.40 2 2 Last 10 (10) 10 5 3 2 16 7 +9 18 1.80 5 2 Home, last 5 (5) 5 4 0 1 12 3 +9 12 2.40 3 1 Home, last 10 (10) 10 6 1 3 19 11 +8 19 1.90 4 1
Atletico Madrid Last 5 (5) 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 10 scored, 6 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Last 10 (10) 6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 20 scored, 13 conceded · 1.90 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Away, last 5 (5) 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 9 scored, 7 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1 Away, last 10 (10) 4 won, 0 drawn, 6 lost · 14 scored, 19 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2 Atletico Madrid Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 3
Context only Shown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure Alaves Atletico Madrid League position 6th 2nd Points per game 1.57 2.29 Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) 1.60 2.00 Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) 0.70 1.30 Clean sheets 5 3
Context only Rest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Alaves: 21 days since their last match (19 Sept 2026). Atletico Madrid: 20 days since their last match (20 Sept 2026). In the model Missing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Alaves F. Garces · out, suspended V. Koski · out, muscle injury M. Rodriguez · out, ankle injury Atletico Madrid None reported.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all. Updating…
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GEN Genoa L L W D L FIO Fiorentina D W W L L
Last 5 games
09:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUG FC Augsburg D L D W W BMU Bayern München W W W D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF 1899 Hoffenheim L L W L L HAM Hamburger SV W W L L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PAD SC Paderborn 07 W W L L D VST VfB Stuttgart W W L L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBE Union Berlin W L L L D ELV SV Elversberg L D L W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMA FSV Mainz 05 W W L W D BLE Bayer Leverkusen W W D W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHE Chelsea L D W L W BOU Bournemouth L W D W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MID Middlesbrough D D W L W WOL Wolves W L W D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PRE Preston D L L W L MIL Millwall D D L L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RAN Rangers W W W W W KIL Kilmarnock D W D D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALA Alaves D L L W W AMA Atletico Madrid W W W L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAE GO Ahead Eagles D D D L W SRO Sparta Rotterdam L L D L
Starting later (8) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INT Inter W D W L W PAR Parma W L D
Show all 6 picks
8 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
12th Getafe 8 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
13th Rayo Vallecano 8 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
14th Osasuna 8 points from 7 games · goal difference -7
15th Celta Vigo 7 points from 7 games · goal difference +2
16th Racing Santander 7 points from 7 games · goal difference -10
17th Levante 5 points from 6 games · goal difference -4
18th Elche 5 points from 7 games · goal difference -6
19th Valencia 4 points from 7 games · goal difference -9
20th Malaga 4 points from 8 games · goal difference -9 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 31 7 +24 21 2 Atletico Madrid 7 5 1 1 16 7 +9 16 3 Real Betis 7 5 1 1 9 7 +2 16 4 Real Madrid 7 5 0 2 18 8 +10 15 5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 10 9 +1 13 6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 11 6 +5 11 7 Deportivo La Coruna 7 2 4 1 10 8 +2 10 8 Real Sociedad 7 3 1 3 9 13 -4 10 9 Villarreal 7 2 2 3 13 12 +1 8 10 Athletic Club 6 2 2 2 7 6 +1 8 11 Espanyol 8 2 2 4 11 11 0 8 12 Getafe 7 2 2 3 4 7 -3 8 13 Rayo Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8 14 Osasuna 7 2 2 3 6 13 -7 8 15 Celta Vigo 7 1 4 2 8 6 +2 7 16 Racing Santander 7 2 1 4 11 21 -10 7 17 Levante 6 1 2 3 8 12 -4 5 18 Elche 7 1 2 4 11 17 -6 5 19 Valencia 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4 20 Malaga 8 0 4 4 4 13 -9 4
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 D Drew v Eibar 18 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 1–1
L Lost v Rayo Vallecano 23 May 2026 · La Liga · Home 1–2
W Won at Oviedo 17 May 2026 · La Liga · Away 1–0
W Won v Barcelona 13 May 2026 · La Liga · Home 1–0
D Drew at Elche 9 May 2026 · La Liga · Away 1–1
L Lost v Athletic Club 2 May 2026 · La Liga · Home 2–4
W Won v Mallorca 25 Apr 2026 · La Liga · Home 2–1
L Lost at Real Madrid 21 Apr 2026 · La Liga · Away 1–2
D Drew at Real Sociedad 11 Apr 2026 · La Liga · Away 3–3
D Drew v Osasuna 5 Apr 2026 · La Liga · Home 2–2
Show last 20 matches Showing 20
L Lost at Manchester United 1 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 1–2
W Won v Getafe 29 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 4–1
L Lost at Villarreal 24 May 2026 · La Liga · Away 1–5
W Won v Girona 17 May 2026 · La Liga · Home 1–0
W Won at Osasuna 12 May 2026 · La Liga · Away 2–1
L Lost v Celta Vigo 9 May 2026 · La Liga · Home 0–1
L Lost at Arsenal 5 May 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Away 0–1
W Won at Valencia 2 May 2026 · La Liga · Away 2–0
D Drew v Arsenal 29 Apr 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Home 1–1
W Won v Athletic Club 25 Apr 2026 · La Liga · Home 3–2
1–1
Atletico Madrid
30 Mar 2019 · La Liga Alaves 0–4 Atletico Madrid
8 Dec 2018 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 3–0 Alaves
29 Apr 2018 · La Liga Alaves 0–1 Atletico Madrid
16 Dec 2017 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 1–0 Alaves
28 Jan 2017 · La Liga Alaves 0–0 Atletico Madrid
21 Aug 2016 · La Liga Atletico Madrid 1–1 Alaves
Last 10 (10) 10 6 1 3 20 13 +7 19 1.90 3 1
Away, last 5 (5) 5 3 0 2 9 7 +2 9 1.80 1 1
Away, last 10 (10) 10 4 0 6 14 19 -5 12 1.20 1 2
W
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
10:00 EDT · England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
10:00 EDT · Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
10:15 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
10:30 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
12:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLE RB Leipzig L W L L W EFR Eintracht Frankfurt W D W L D
Last 5 games
12:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MAN Manchester United D L L W D TOT Tottenham L L D D L
Last 5 games
12:30 EDT · England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEY Feyenoord W W L W D AAL AZ Alkmaar W L D W W
Last 5 games
12:45 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MAR Maritimo D L L L D POR FC Porto W W W L W
Last 5 games
13:00 EDT · Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSI Fortuna Sittard W W L W W TWE Twente W W W W D
Last 5 games
14:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJA Ajax D W W L W NNI NEC Nijmegen D L L D L
Last 5 games
15:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMA Real Madrid L W W W L VIL Villarreal W W L L L
Last 5 games
15:00 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip