Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Chances of each result: Ajax win 42%, Draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen win 37%.
Ajax host NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives an 86% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 88%.
The model expects Ajax to score 2.0 goals and NEC Nijmegen 1.9.
6 of Ajax's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of NEC Nijmegen's last 6 did.
The published pick of Over 1.5 goals in this match is supported by Ajax's recent form, having had two or more goals in each of their last 7 league matches and three or more goals in each of their last 6 league matches. This suggests that the team is likely to score multiple goals, increasing the likelihood of the match going over 1.5 goals. Additionally, Ajax's recent matches have seen both teams scoring, with both teams scoring in each of their last 4 league matches. Ajax's expected goals, estimated at 2.0, also suggest a high scoring match. An 86% chance still means this pick loses about 1 time in 7. Taken together, the numbers point to goals in this match: a 86% win chance for Over 1.5 goals.
Summary written by AI from the statistics above.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Eredivisie, before kick-off.
Ajax sit 5th with 14 points; NEC Nijmegen sit 11th with 8. A gap of 13 in goal difference, in favour of Ajax.
| # | Team | P | W |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: December 2010 to February 2026.
Average goals 3.5 (Ajax 2.5, NEC Nijmegen 0.9). Draws 32%, both teams scored 64%, over 2.5 goals 73%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Ajax at home and NEC Nijmegen away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 11th |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.14 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 3.20 | 1.30 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.60 | 2.30 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 17 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 |
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 16 | +16 | 21 | 2.10 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 8 | 1.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 21 | 2.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 | 0.90 | 0 | 3 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 | 1.20 | 0 | 3 |
| Away, last 10 (8) | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 | 1.00 | 1 | 4 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 15 |
| 7 |
| +8 |
| 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |