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FC Augsburg vs Bayern München prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysis
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all. Updating…
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GEN Genoa L L W D L FIO Fiorentina D W W
Back to today's picks
Sat 09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
FC Augsburg v Bayern München Home v Away Home v Away Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
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Our model's chances Chances of each result: FC Augsburg win 23%, Draw 19%, Bayern München win 58%.
FC Augsburg host Bayern München in the Bundesliga, Germany.
Our model gives an 87% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 93%.
The model expects FC Augsburg to score 1.4 goals and Bayern München 2.6.
4 of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had two or more goals; 3 of Bayern München's last 4 did.
Top factors At home, FC Augsburg have scored 2.4 goals a game and conceded 2.2 in their last 5 home matches. Away, Bayern München have scored 2.4 goals a game and conceded 1.0 in their last 5 away matches. Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 00:30 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more. Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
L
L
09:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUG FC Augsburg D L D W W BMU Bayern München W W W D W
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF 1899 Hoffenheim L L W L L HAM Hamburger SV W W L L L
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PAD SC Paderborn 07 W W L L D VST VfB Stuttgart W W L L W
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBE Union Berlin W L L L D ELV SV Elversberg L D L W W
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMA FSV Mainz 05 W W L W D BLE Bayer Leverkusen W W D W L
Last 5 games
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHE Chelsea L D W L W BOU Bournemouth L W D W D
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MID Middlesbrough D D W L W WOL Wolves W L W D L
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PRE Preston D L L W L MIL Millwall D D L L W
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RAN Rangers W W W W W KIL Kilmarnock D W D D L
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALA Alaves D L L W W AMA Atletico Madrid W W W L L
Last 5 games
10:15 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAE GO Ahead Eagles D D D L W SRO Sparta Rotterdam L L D L D
Last 5 games
10:30 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
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Starting later (8) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INT Inter W D W L W PAR Parma W L D L L
Last 5 games
12:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLE RB Leipzig L W L L W EFR Eintracht Frankfurt W D W L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MAN Manchester United D L L W D TOT Tottenham L L D D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEY Feyenoord W W L W D AAL AZ Alkmaar W L D W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MAR Maritimo D L L L D POR FC Porto W W W L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSI Fortuna Sittard W W L W W TWE Twente W W W W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJA Ajax D W W L W NNI NEC Nijmegen D L L D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMA Real Madrid L W W W L VIL Villarreal W W L L
FC Augsburg win 23% · price 12.53
Bayern München win 58% · price 1.16
Over 1.5 goals 87% · price 1.03
Over 2.5 goals 70% · price 1.12
Both teams score 59% · price 1.46
Expected goals (our model) FC Augsburg 1.4, Bayern München 2.6 Context only Facts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
FC Augsburg sit 5th with 7 points; Bayern München sit 2nd with 10 points. FC Augsburg have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Bayern München 13 from 5. At home, FC Augsburg have taken 8 points from their last 5; away, Bayern München have taken 13 from their last 5. Head-to-head context: in their last 34 meetings FC Augsburg won 5, Bayern München won 27 and 2 were drawn. FC Augsburg have had 8 days since their last match; Bayern München 22. FC Augsburg have 4 players out or doubtful; Bayern München have 2. Context only Table position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Bundesliga, before kick-off.
FC Augsburg sit 5th with 7 points; Bayern München sit 2nd with 10. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Bayern München.
1st Borussia Dortmund 13 points from 5 games · goal difference +7 2nd Bayern München 10 points from 4 games · goal difference +12 3rd SC Freiburg 10 points from 4 games · goal difference +9 4th Werder Bremen 8 points from 5 games · goal difference 0 5th FC Augsburg 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +5 6th Bayer Leverkusen 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +5 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Borussia Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 +7 13 2 Bayern München 4 3 1 0 14 2 +12 10 3 SC Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12 3 +9 10 4 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8 5 FC Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11 6 +5 7 6 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10 5
Show full table Show less 1st Borussia Dortmund 13 points from 5 games · goal difference +7 2nd Bayern München 10 points from 4 games · goal difference +12 3rd SC Freiburg 10 points from 4 games · goal difference +9 4th Werder Bremen 8 points from 5 games · goal difference 0 5th FC Augsburg 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +5 6th Bayer Leverkusen 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +5 7th FSV Mainz 05 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +4 8th SV Elversberg 7 points from 4 games · goal difference +1 9th RB Leipzig 6 points from 4 games · goal difference +4 10th Eintracht Frankfurt 5 points from 4 games · goal difference -1 Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
D Drew v Hertha BSC 2 Oct 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 2–2
L Lost at Werder Bremen 19 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 2–3
D Drew v Bayer Leverkusen 12 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 2–2
W Won at Eintracht Frankfurt 6 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 4–1
W Won v FC Schalke 04 30 Aug 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 3–0
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 W Won at Energie Cottbus 22 Aug 2026 · DFB Pokal · Away 2–0
L Lost at Leeds 15 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 0–4
W Won v Sassuolo 8 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–2
W Won at Schwaz 5 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 15–0
L Lost v Bournemouth 30 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 2–5
Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
W Won v Union Berlin 18 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 7–0
W Won at SV Elversberg 13 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 2–1
W Won v Bodo/Glimt 10 Sept 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Home 5–0
D Drew at FC Schalke 04 5 Sept 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 0–0
W Won at VfL Osnabrück 2 Sept 2026 · DFB Pokal · Away 4–1
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 W Won v VfB Stuttgart 28 Aug 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 5–1
W Won at Borussia Dortmund 22 Aug 2026 · Super Cup · Away 2–1
W Won at 1. FC Heidenheim 18 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 4–2
W Won v RB Leipzig 15 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–1
W Won v Aston Villa 7 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 2–1
Partly in the model The model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings 34
FC Augsburg wins 5
Draws 2
Bayern München wins 27 Record shown: November 2011 to January 2026.
Average goals 3.5 (FC Augsburg 0.9, Bayern München 2.5). Draws 6%, both teams scored 56%, over 2.5 goals 71%.
24 Jan 2026 · Bundesliga Bayern München 1–2 FC Augsburg
30 Aug 2025 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern München
4 Apr 2025 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 1–3 Bayern München
22 Nov 2024 · Bundesliga Bayern München 3–0 FC Augsburg
27 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern Munich
Show last 10 meetings Showing 10 27 Aug 2023 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 3–1 FC Augsburg
11 Mar 2023 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 5–3 FC Augsburg
19 Oct 2022 · DFB Pokal FC Augsburg 2–5 Bayern Munich
17 Sept 2022 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 1–0 Bayern Munich
9 Apr 2022 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 1–0 FC Augsburg
Show last 20 meetings Showing 20 19 Nov 2021 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 2–1 Bayern Munich
22 May 2021 · Bundesliga
In the model The model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then FC Augsburg at home and Bayern München away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
FC Augsburg Last 5 (5) 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 13 scored, 8 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0 Last 10 (10) 5 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 35 scored, 19 conceded · 1.70 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Home, last 5 (5) 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 12 scored, 11 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0 Home, last 10 (10) 3 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost · 21 scored, 21 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0 FC Augsburg Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 2 2 1 13 8 +5 8 1.60 1 0 Last 10 (10) 10 5 2 3 35 19 +16 17 1.70 3 1 Home, last 5 (5) 5 2 2 1 12 11 +1 8 1.60 1 0 Home, last 10 (10) 10 3 5 2 21 21 0 14 1.40 1 0
Bayern München Last 5 (5) 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 18 scored, 2 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Last 10 (10) 9 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 34 scored, 8 conceded · 2.80 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Away, last 5 (5) 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 12 scored, 5 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1 Away, last 10 (10) 7 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 24 scored, 16 conceded · 2.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Bayern München Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 4
Context only Shown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure FC Augsburg Bayern München League position 5th 2nd Points per game 1.75 2.50 Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) 3.50 3.40 Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) 1.90 0.80 Clean sheets 3 3
Context only Rest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
FC Augsburg: 8 days since their last match (2 Oct 2026). Bayern München: 22 days since their last match (18 Sept 2026). In the model Missing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
FC Augsburg N. Banks · out, knee injury T. Breithaupt · out, toe injury S. Mounie · out, injury S. Suso · out, muscle injury Bayern München T. Buchmann · out, knee injury J. Musiala · out, muscle injury D
12:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
12:30 EDT · England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
12:45 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
13:00 EDT · Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
14:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
15:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
15:00 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
11th
FC Schalke 04
5 points from 4 games · goal difference -1
12th SC Paderborn 07 4 points from 4 games · goal difference -2
13th 1. FC Köln 4 points from 4 games · goal difference -3
14th 1899 Hoffenheim 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -3
15th VfB Stuttgart 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -3
16th Hamburger SV 3 points from 4 games · goal difference -11
17th Union Berlin 1 points from 4 games · goal difference -13
18th Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 points from 4 games · goal difference -10 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Borussia Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 +7 13 2 Bayern München 4 3 1 0 14 2 +12 10 3 SC Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12 3 +9 10 4 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8 5 FC Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11 6 +5 7 6 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10 5 +5 7 7 FSV Mainz 05 4 2 1 1 10 6 +4 7 8 SV Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8 7 +1 7 9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9 5 +4 6 10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9 10 -1 5 11 FC Schalke 04 4 1 2 1 3 4 -1 5 12 SC Paderborn 07 4 1 1 2 3 5 -2 4 13 1. FC Köln 4 1 1 2 6 9 -3 4 14 1899 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7 10 -3 3 15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6 9 -3 3 16 Hamburger SV 4 1 0 3 2 13 -11 3 17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4 17 -13 1 18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6 16 -10 0
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 D Drew v FC Saarbrücken 25 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 1–1
L Lost at Union Berlin 16 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 0–4
W Won v Borussia Mönchengladbach 9 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 3–1
W Won at Werder Bremen 2 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 3–1
D Drew v Eintracht Frankfurt 25 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 1–1
W Won at Bayer Leverkusen 18 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 2–1
D Drew v 1899 Hoffenheim 10 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 2–2
D Drew at Hamburger SV 4 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 1–1
L Lost v VfB Stuttgart 22 Mar 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 2–5
L Lost at Borussia Dortmund 14 Mar 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 0–2
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 W Won at Jeju United FC 4 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 2–1
L Lost at SV Wehen 25 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 1–2
W Won v VfB Stuttgart 23 May 2026 · DFB Pokal · Home 3–0
W Won v 1. FC Köln 16 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 5–1
W Won at VfL Wolfsburg 9 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 1–0
D Drew v Paris Saint Germain 6 May 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Home 1–1
D Drew v 1. FC Heidenheim 2 May 2026 · Bundesliga · Home 3–3
L Lost at Paris Saint Germain 28 Apr 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Away 4–5
W Won at FSV Mainz 05 25 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga · Away 4–3
W Won at Bayer Leverkusen 22 Apr 2026 · DFB Pokal · Away 2–0
Bayern Munich
5–2
FC Augsburg
20 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 0–1 Bayern Munich
8 Mar 2020 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 2–0 FC Augsburg
19 Oct 2019 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern Munich
15 Feb 2019 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern Munich
25 Sept 2018 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 1–1 FC Augsburg
7 Apr 2018 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 1–4 Bayern Munich
18 Nov 2017 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 3–0 FC Augsburg
1 Apr 2017 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 6–0 FC Augsburg
Show all 34 meetings Showing 34 29 Oct 2016 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 1–3 Bayern Munich
26 Oct 2016 · DFB Pokal Bayern Munich 3–1 FC Augsburg
14 Feb 2016 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 1–3 Bayern Munich
12 Sept 2015 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 2–1 FC Augsburg
9 May 2015 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 0–1 FC Augsburg
13 Dec 2014 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 0–4 Bayern Munich
5 Apr 2014 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 1–0 Bayern Munich
4 Dec 2013 · DFB Pokal FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayern Munich
9 Nov 2013 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 3–0 FC Augsburg
11 May 2013 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 3–0 FC Augsburg
18 Dec 2012 · DFB Pokal FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayern Munich
8 Dec 2012 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayern Munich
7 Apr 2012 · Bundesliga Bayern Munich 2–1 FC Augsburg
6 Nov 2011 · Bundesliga FC Augsburg 1–2 Bayern Munich
Last 10 (10) 10 9 1 0 34 8 +26 28 2.80 3 1
Away, last 5 (5) 5 4 1 0 12 5 +7 13 2.60 1 1
Away, last 10 (10) 10 7 1 2 24 16 +8 22 2.20 2 1