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Middlesbrough vs Wolves prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysis
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Sat 10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Middlesbrough v Wolves Home v Away Home v Away Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
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Our model's chances Chances of each result: Middlesbrough win 44%, Draw 24%, Wolves win 31%.
Middlesbrough host Wolves in the Championship, England.
Our model gives an 80% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 79%.
The model expects Middlesbrough to score 1.7 goals and Wolves 1.4.
5 of Middlesbrough's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of Wolves's last 6 did.
Top factors At home, Middlesbrough have scored 2.4 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 home matches. Away, Wolves have scored 1.4 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches. The published pick of Over 1.5 goals in the match is supported by Middlesbrough's recent form, having had three or more goals in each of their last 4 home matches, and their unbeaten run of 6 league matches. This suggests that they are likely to continue their scoring form at home. Wolves' recent run of 3 unbeaten league matches also indicates that they are capable of scoring goals. An 80% chance still means this pick loses about 1 time in 5. The published pick of Over 1.5 goals in the match has a published win chance of 80%.
Summary written by AI from the statistics above.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 00:30 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more. Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Middlesbrough win 44% · price 2.17
Wolves win 31% · price 3.00
Over 1.5 goals 80% · price 1.18
Over 2.5 goals 58% · price 1.61
Both teams score 56% · price 1.51
Expected goals (our model) Middlesbrough 1.7, Wolves 1.4 Context only Facts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Middlesbrough sit 3rd with 15 points; Wolves sit 4th with 14 points. Middlesbrough have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Wolves 7 from 5. At home, Middlesbrough have taken 13 points from their last 5; away, Wolves have taken 7 from their last 5. Head-to-head context: in their last 9 meetings Middlesbrough won 5, Wolves won 4 and 0 were drawn. Middlesbrough have 1 player out or doubtful; Wolves have 3. Context only Table position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Championship, before kick-off.
Middlesbrough sit 3rd with 15 points; Wolves sit 4th with 14. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Wolves; Middlesbrough have played 1 more.
2nd West Ham 16 points from 9 games · goal difference +11 3rd Middlesbrough 15 points from 8 games · goal difference +4 4th Wolves 14 points from 7 games · goal difference +5 5th QPR 14 points from 9 games · goal difference +3 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 2 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 +11 16 3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 16 12 +4 15 4 Wolves 7 4 2 1 15 10 +5 14 5 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 +3 14
Show full table Show less 1st Swansea 17 points from 8 games · goal difference +7 2nd West Ham 16 points from 9 games · goal difference +11 3rd Middlesbrough 15 points from 8 games · goal difference +4 4th Wolves 14 points from 7 games · goal difference +5 5th QPR 14 points from 9 games · goal difference +3 6th West Brom 14 points from 8 games · goal difference +2 7th Stoke City 13 points from 8 games · goal difference +1 8th Bristol City 13 points from 8 games · goal difference -1 9th Charlton 12 points from 8 games · goal difference -3 10th Birmingham 11 points from 8 games · goal difference +1 11th Millwall 11 points from 8 games · goal difference 0 Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
D Drew at Birmingham 19 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away 2–2
D Drew v Millwall 15 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home 2–2
W Won v Norwich 12 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home 4–3
L Lost at Crystal Palace 8 Sept 2026 · League Cup · Away 0–3
W Won at QPR 5 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away 1–0
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 D Drew at Burnley 2 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away 1–1
W Won v West Brom 29 Aug 2026 · Championship · Home 3–1
W Won at Doncaster 25 Aug 2026 · League Cup · Away 3–1
L Lost at Blackburn 22 Aug 2026 · Championship · Away 1–2
W Won v Lincoln 15 Aug 2026 · Championship · Home 2–1
Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
W Won v West Brom 20 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home 1–0
L Lost at Everton 16 Sept 2026 · League Cup · Away 0–1
W Won at Sheffield Utd 13 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away 1–0
D Drew at Birmingham 6 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away 2–2
L Lost at West Ham 1 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away 2–4
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 W Won v Stoke City 29 Aug 2026 · Championship · Home 4–1
W Won at Sheffield Wednesday 25 Aug 2026 · League Cup · Away 2–0
W Won at Preston 22 Aug 2026 · Championship · Away 3–1
D Drew v Blackburn 14 Aug 2026 · Championship · Home 2–2
W Won v Port Vale 7 Aug 2026 · League Cup · Home 3–0
Partly in the model The model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings 9
Middlesbrough wins 5
Draws 0
Wolves wins 4 Record shown: December 2012 to March 2018.
Average goals 2.9 (Middlesbrough 1.7, Wolves 1.2). Draws 0%, both teams scored 56%, over 2.5 goals 67%.
30 Mar 2018 · Championship Middlesbrough 1–2 Wolves
5 Aug 2017 · Championship Wolves 1–0 Middlesbrough
4 Mar 2016 · Championship Middlesbrough 2–1 Wolves
24 Oct 2015 · Championship Wolves 1–3 Middlesbrough
22 Sept 2015 · League Cup Middlesbrough 3–0 Wolves
Show last 9 meetings Showing 9 14 Apr 2015 · Championship Middlesbrough 2–1 Wolves
21 Oct 2014 · Championship Wolves 2–0 Middlesbrough
30 Mar 2013 · Championship Wolves 3–2 Middlesbrough
15 Dec 2012 · Championship Middlesbrough 2–0 Wolves
In the model The model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Middlesbrough at home and Wolves away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Middlesbrough Last 5 (5) 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 10 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1 Last 10 (10) 5 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 19 scored, 16 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1 Home, last 5 (5) 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 12 scored, 7 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0 Home, last 10 (10) 6 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 22 scored, 14 conceded · 2.10 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Middlesbrough Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 2 2 1 9 10 -1 8 1.60 1 1 Last 10 (10) 10 5 3 2 19 16 +3 18 1.80 1 1 Home, last 5 (5) 5 4 1 0 12 7 +5 13 2.60 1 0 Home, last 10 (10) 10 6 3 1 22 14 +8 21 2.10 3 1
Wolves Last 5 (5) 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Last 10 (10) 6 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 20 scored, 11 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Away, last 5 (5) 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1 Away, last 10 (10) 5 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 14 scored, 12 conceded · 1.70 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Wolves Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 2
Context only Shown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure Middlesbrough Wolves League position 3rd 4th Points per game 1.88 2.00 Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) 1.90 2.00 Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) 1.60 1.10 Clean sheets 1 4
Context only Rest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Middlesbrough: 21 days since their last match (19 Sept 2026). Wolves: 20 days since their last match (20 Sept 2026). In the model Missing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Middlesbrough A. Jones · out, calf injury Wolves R. Jimenez · out, knee injury Y. Mosquera · out, ankle injury R. Said · out, knee injury
12th Lincoln 11 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
13th Southampton 10 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
14th Wrexham 10 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
15th Bolton 10 points from 8 games · goal difference -4
16th Blackburn 9 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
17th Norwich 9 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
18th Sheffield Utd 9 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
19th Portsmouth 8 points from 7 games · goal difference -1
20th Watford 8 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
21st Cardiff 7 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
22nd Derby 5 points from 8 games · goal difference -7
23rd Preston 4 points from 8 games · goal difference -7
24th Burnley 4 points from 8 games · goal difference -8 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Swansea 8 5 2 1 13 6 +7 17 2 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 +11 16 3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 16 12 +4 15 4 Wolves 7 4 2 1 15 10 +5 14 5 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 +3 14 6 West Brom 8 4 2 2 10 8 +2 14 7 Stoke City 8 4 1 3 13 12 +1 13 8 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 11 12 -1 13 9 Charlton 8 3 3 2 7 10 -3 12 10 Birmingham 8 2 5 1 12 11 +1 11 11 Millwall 8 3 2 3 15 15 0 11 12 Lincoln 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11 13 Southampton 8 4 2 2 19 10 +9 10 14 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 9 12 -3 10 15 Bolton 8 3 1 4 11 15 -4 10 16 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9 17 Norwich 8 3 0 5 16 17 -1 9 18 Sheffield Utd 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9 19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8 20 Watford 8 2 2 4 7 10 -3 8 21 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 10 12 -2 7 22 Derby 8 1 2 5 7 14 -7 5 23 Preston 8 1 1 6 8 15 -7 4 24 Burnley 8 0 4 4 9 17 -8 4
Show last 20 matches Showing 20
W Won v Wrexham 7 Aug 2026 · League Cup · Home 1–0
D Drew v Espanyol 1 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–3
L Lost v Huddersfield 25 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 1–3
D Drew at Celtic 18 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 1–1
L Lost at Hull City 23 May 2026 · Championship · Away 0–1
D Drew at Southampton 12 May 2026 · Championship · Away 1–1
D Drew v Southampton 9 May 2026 · Championship · Home 0–0
D Drew at Wrexham 2 May 2026 · Championship · Away 2–2
W Won v Watford 25 Apr 2026 · Championship · Home 5–1
W Won v Sheffield Wednesday 22 Apr 2026 · Championship · Home 1–0
Show last 19 matches Showing 19 W Won v Racing Santander 1 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–0
W Won at Doncaster 29 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 2–0
L Lost v Real Sociedad 25 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 1–2
W Won at Maidenhead 22 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 1–0
D Drew at Burnley 24 May 2026 · Premier League · Away 1–1
D Drew v Fulham 17 May 2026 · Premier League · Home 1–1
L Lost at Brighton 9 May 2026 · Premier League · Away 0–3
D Drew v Sunderland 2 May 2026 · Premier League · Home 1–1
L Lost v Tottenham 25 Apr 2026 · Premier League · Home 0–1
Last 10 (10) 10 6 2 2 20 11 +9 20 2.00 4 1
Away, last 5 (5) 5 2 1 2 7 7 0 7 1.40 2 1
Away, last 10 (10) 10 5 2 3 14 12 +2 17 1.70 4 2
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all. Updating…
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.13
UBE Union Berlin W L L L D ELV SV Elversberg L D L W W
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09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMA FSV Mainz 05 W W L W D BLE Bayer Leverkusen W W D W L
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09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHE Chelsea L D W L W BOU Bournemouth L W D W D
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10:00 EDT · England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MID Middlesbrough D D W L W WOL Wolves W L W D L
Last 5 games
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PRE Preston D L L W L MIL Millwall D D L L W
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10:00 EDT · England - Championship
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RAN Rangers W W W W W KIL Kilmarnock D W D D L
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10:00 EDT · Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALA Alaves D L L W W AMA Atletico Madrid W W W L L
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
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GAE GO Ahead Eagles D D D L W SRO Sparta Rotterdam L L D L D
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10:30 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
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Starting later (8) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INT Inter W D W L W PAR Parma W L D L L
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12:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLE RB Leipzig L W L L W EFR Eintracht Frankfurt W D W L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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MAN Manchester United D L L W D TOT Tottenham L L D D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEY Feyenoord W W L W D AAL AZ Alkmaar W L D W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MAR Maritimo D L L L D POR FC Porto W W W L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSI Fortuna Sittard W W L W W TWE Twente W W W W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJA Ajax D W W L W NNI NEC Nijmegen D L L D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMA Real Madrid L W W W L VIL Villarreal W W L L
D
12:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
12:30 EDT · England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
12:45 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
13:00 EDT · Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
14:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
15:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
15:00 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.