Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Draw
23% · price 3.79
Gainsborough Trinity win
52% · price 1.69
Over 1.5 goals
80% · price 1.19
Over 2.5 goals
60% · price 1.68
Both teams score
55% · price 1.64
Expected goals (our model)
AFC Emley 1.2, Gainsborough Trinity 2.0
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Non League Premier - Northern, before kick-off.
AFC Emley sit 19th with 10 points; Gainsborough Trinity sit 11th with 16. A gap of 18 in goal difference, in favour of Gainsborough Trinity; AFC Emley have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
10thBury16 points from 10 games · goal difference +10
11thGainsborough Trinity16 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
12thLancaster City16 points from 12 games · goal difference -8
18thQuorn10 points from 11 games · goal difference -9
19thAFC Emley10 points from 11 games · goal difference -12
20thBamber Bridge9 points from 11 games · goal difference -15
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
10
Bury
10
–
–
–
–
–
+10
16
11
Gainsborough Trinity
10
–
–
–
–
–
+6
16
12
Lancaster City
12
–
–
–
–
–
-8
16
18
Quorn
11
–
–
–
–
–
-9
10
19
AFC Emley
11
–
–
–
–
–
-12
10
20
Bamber Bridge
11
–
–
–
–
–
-15
Show full tableShow less
1stCleethorpes Town27 points from 12 games · goal difference +20
2ndAvro25 points from 10 games · goal difference +14
3rdRedcar Athletic25 points from 12 games · goal difference +12
4thGuiseley AFC22 points from 11 games · goal difference +13
5thWorkington21 points from 12 games · goal difference +4
6thRylands20 points from 12 games · goal difference +3
7thCurzon Ashton19 points from 10 games · goal difference +10
8thAlfreton Town18 points from 12 games · goal difference +5
9thWarrington Town18 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
10thBury16 points from 10 games · goal difference +10
11thGainsborough Trinity
AFC Emley: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Rylands3 Oct 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away1–4
LLostv Workington29 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home1–3
LLostat Bury12 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away0–4
LLostv Guiseley AFC31 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home0–4
DDrewat Warrington Town29 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Redcar Athletic25 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away0–0
Gainsborough Trinity: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Whitby Town6 Oct 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away6–2
LLostv Avro12 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home0–2
LLostv Cleethorpes Town31 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home0–3
WWonat Ashton United28 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away2–1
DDrewat Quorn25 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Bury22 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home0–1
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then AFC Emley at home and Gainsborough Trinity away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
AFC Emley
Last 5 (5)0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 4 scored, 17 conceded · 0.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (6)0 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost · 4 scored, 17 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
Home, last 5 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 1 scored, 7 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 1 scored, 7 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
AFC Emley
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
0
1
4
4
17
-13
1
0.20
0
2
Last 10 (6)
6
0
2
4
4
17
-13
2
0.33
1
3
Home, last 5 (2)
2
0
0
2
1
7
-6
0
0.00
0
1
Home, last 10 (2)
2
0
0
2
1
7
-6
0
0.00
0
1
Gainsborough Trinity
Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 10 scored, 10 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 11 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 10 scored, 5 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Away, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 10 scored, 5 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Gainsborough Trinity
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
2
AFC Emley at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Gainsborough Trinity away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
AFC Emley
Gainsborough Trinity
League position
19th
11th
Points per game
0.91
1.60
Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6)
0.67
1.67
Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6)
2.83
1.83
Clean sheets
1
0
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
AFC Emley
None reported.
Gainsborough Trinity
None reported.
L
L
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.