Al-Karma vs Al Karkh prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Iraq - Iraqi League
Al-Karma v Al KarkhHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Al-Karma win 60%, Draw 24%, Al Karkh win 16%.
Al-Karma host Al Karkh in the Iraqi League, Iraq.
Our model gives Al-Karma a 60% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Al Karkh 16%.
The model expects Al-Karma to score 1.7 goals and Al Karkh 0.7.
Al-Karma have won 5 of their last 6 league matches; Al Karkh have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Al-Karma sit 1st with 20 points; Al Karkh sit 17th with 7 points.
- Al-Karma have taken 15 points from their last 5 matches; Al Karkh 7 from 5.
- At home, Al-Karma have taken 9 points from their last 3; away, Al Karkh have taken 0 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Al-Karma win
- 60% · price 1.35
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Al Karkh win16% · price 7.79 Over 2.5 goals47% · price 1.91 Both teams score47% · price 2.18 Expected goals (our model)Al-Karma 1.7, Al Karkh 0.7 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Iraqi League, before kick-off.
Al-Karma sit 1st with 20 points; Al Karkh sit 17th with 7. A gap of 13 in goal difference, in favour of Al-Karma.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 1st Al-Karma20 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 2nd Al Zawra'a18 points from 9 games · goal difference +9
- 16th Mosul8 points from 9 games · goal difference -6
- 17th Al Karkh7 points from 8 games · goal difference -4
- 18th Al Kahrabaa7 points from 8 games · goal difference -4
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Al Zawra'a | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 16 | Mosul | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 7 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Al-Karma20 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 2nd Al Zawra'a18 points from 9 games · goal difference +9
- 3rd Erbil18 points from 9 games · goal difference +9
- 4th Naft18 points from 9 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Al Shorta16 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
- 6th Newroz15 points from 9 games · goal difference +6
- 7th Duhok12 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 8th Al Quwa Al Jawiya11 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
- 9th Al Talaba11 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
- 10th Al-Jolan SC11 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
- 11th Al Minaa Basra9 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Zakho19 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Home1–0
WWonat Erbil14 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Away2–1
WWonv Naft9 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Home3–0
WWonat Diyala3 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Away2–1
WWonv Karbala30 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Home2–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Al Kahrabaa26 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Away1–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Naft Maysan17 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Home3–2
WWonv Duhok13 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Home3–2
LLostat Al Talaba9 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Away2–3
LLostat Karbala4 Sept 2026 · Iraqi League · Away0–1
DDrewv Al Kahrabaa29 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Home2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Erbil25 Aug 2026 · Iraqi League · Home0–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Al-Karma at home and Al Karkh away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Al-Karma
- Last 5 (5)5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 10 scored, 2 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)5 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 11 scored, 3 conceded · 2.67 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Al-Karma| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 15 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 16 | 2.67 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
Al Karkh
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 10 scored, 10 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 11 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Al Karkh| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Al-Karma at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Al Karkh away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Al-Karma | Al Karkh |
|---|
| League position | 1st | 17th |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.50 | 0.88 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 1.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Al Zawra'a | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Erbil | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Naft | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 18 |
| 5 | Al Shorta | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 6 | Newroz | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Duhok | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Talaba | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Al-Jolan SC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Al Minaa Basra | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Diyala | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Zakho | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Naft Maysan | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Mosul | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | Gharraf | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 6 |
| 20 | Karbala | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 5 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis