Alcúdia vs Mercadal prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 11
Alcúdia v MercadalHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Alcúdia win 46%, Draw 26%, Mercadal win 28%.
Alcúdia host Mercadal in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11, Spain.
Our model gives Alcúdia a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Mercadal 28%.
The model expects Alcúdia to score 1.6 goals and Mercadal 1.2.
Alcúdia have won 2 of their last 5 league matches; Mercadal have won 1 of 5.
Top factors
- Alcúdia sit 11th with 6 points; Mercadal sit 12th with 5 points.
- Alcúdia have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Mercadal 5 from 5.
- At home, Alcúdia have taken 3 points from their last 2; away, Mercadal have taken 4 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Alcúdia 1.6, Mercadal 1.2 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11, before kick-off.
Alcúdia sit 11th with 6 points; Mercadal sit 12th with 5. They are level on goal difference.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 10th PE Sant Jordi8 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Alcúdia6 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
- 12th Mercadal5 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
- 13th Andratx5 points from 5 games · goal difference -2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 5 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Manacor15 points from 5 games · goal difference +10
- 2nd Ibiza Islas Pitiusas13 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 3rd Cardassar10 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 4th Constància10 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Llosetense10 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 6th Platges Calvià9 points from 5 games · goal difference +4
- 7th Santanyí9 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Porreres9 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Formentera8 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 10th PE Sant Jordi8 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Alcúdia6 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Cardassar4 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away2–6
LLostat Constància26 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away0–2
LLostv Santanyí19 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home1–2
WWonat Arenal12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away2–1
WWonv Inter Ibiza6 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home5–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Constància3 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home1–3
DDrewat Santanyí26 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away1–1
LLostv Arenal19 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home1–2
WWonat Inter Ibiza12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away2–0
DDrewv Formentera5 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home1–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Alcúdia at home and Mercadal away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Alcúdia
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 11 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 11 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Alcúdia| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Mercadal
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Mercadal| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Alcúdia at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Mercadal away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Alcúdia | Mercadal |
|---|
| League position | 11th | 12th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Constància | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Llosetense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Platges Calvià | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Santanyí | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Porreres | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | Formentera | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 8 |
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Binissalem | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Arenal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 0 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis