Alianza Valledupar v Águilas DoradasAlianza ValleduparHomevÁguilas DoradasAwayAlianza ValleduparHomevÁguilas DoradasAway
Final score Alianza Valledupar 2, Águilas Doradas 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Alianza Valledupar win 38%, Draw 29%, Águilas Doradas win 33%.
38%
Alianza Valledupar win
29%
Draw
33%
Águilas Doradas win
What the data says
Alianza Valledupar host Águilas Doradas in the Primera A, Colombia.
Our model gives Alianza Valledupar a 38% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Águilas Doradas 33%.
The model expects Alianza Valledupar to score 1.2 goals and Águilas Doradas 1.1.
Alianza Valledupar have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Águilas Doradas have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
Alianza Valledupar sit 18th with 28 points; Águilas Doradas sit 13th with 40 points.
Alianza Valledupar have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches; Águilas Doradas 4 from 5.
At home, Alianza Valledupar have taken 3 points from their last 2; away, Águilas Doradas have taken 1 from their last 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Alianza Valledupar win
38%
Draw
29%
Águilas Doradas win
33%
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams score
50%
Expected goals (our model)
Alianza Valledupar 1.2, Águilas Doradas 1.1
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera A, before kick-off.
Alianza Valledupar sit 18th with 28 points; Águilas Doradas sit 13th with 40. A gap of 20 in goal difference, in favour of Águilas Doradas; Alianza Valledupar have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
12thInternacional de Bogota41 points from 34 games · goal difference -11
13thÁguilas Doradas40 points from 30 games · goal difference -6
14thLlaneros36 points from 31 games · goal difference -4
17thChico29 points from 30 games · goal difference -25
18thAlianza Valledupar28 points from 31 games · goal difference -26
19thJaguares25 points from 30 games · goal difference -22
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
12
Internacional de Bogota
34
–
–
–
–
–
-11
41
13
Águilas Doradas
30
–
–
–
–
–
-6
40
14
Llaneros
31
–
–
–
–
–
-4
36
17
Chico
30
–
–
–
–
–
-25
29
18
Alianza Valledupar
31
–
–
–
–
–
-26
28
19
Jaguares
30
–
–
–
–
–
-22
Show full tableShow less
1stAtletico Nacional78 points from 36 games · goal difference +39
2ndAmerica de Cali61 points from 33 games · goal difference +23
3rdSanta Fe57 points from 35 games · goal difference +18
4thDeportes Tolima57 points from 36 games · goal difference +12
5thJunior53 points from 36 games · goal difference +6
6thDeportivo Cali51 points from 31 games · goal difference +15
7thMillonarios47 points from 32 games · goal difference +15
8thOnce Caldas47 points from 33 games · goal difference +7
9thBucaramanga46 points from 30 games · goal difference +16
10thIndependiente Medellin46 points from 31 games · goal difference +5
11thDeportivo Pasto
Alianza Valledupar: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Deportivo Cali3 Oct 2026 · Primera A · Away1–3
WWonat Jaguares27 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Away2–1
LLostv Santa Fe19 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Home1–4
WWonat Chico16 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Away2–1
WWonv Junior13 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Home1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat America de Cali3 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Away0–3
Águilas Doradas: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Jaguares3 Oct 2026 · Primera A · Home2–0
LLostat Deportivo Cali28 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Away0–2
LLostat America de Cali24 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Away0–1
DDrewv Deportivo Pereira18 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Home2–2
LLostat Atletico Nacional13 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Away0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Internacional de Bogota6 Sept 2026 · Primera A · Away2–2
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Alianza Valledupar at home and Águilas Doradas away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Alianza Valledupar
Last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 9 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (6)3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 12 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Home, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Alianza Valledupar
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
3
0
2
7
9
-2
9
1.80
1
0
Last 10 (6)
6
3
0
3
7
12
-5
9
1.50
1
1
Home, last 5 (2)
2
1
0
1
2
4
-2
3
1.50
1
0
Home, last 10 (2)
2
1
0
1
2
4
-2
3
1.50
1
0
Águilas Doradas
Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 7 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 9 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
Away, last 5 (4)0 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 7 conceded · 0.25 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 10 (4)0 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 7 conceded · 0.25 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Águilas Doradas
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
1
Alianza Valledupar at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Águilas Doradas away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Alianza Valledupar
Águilas Doradas
League position
18th
13th
Points per game
0.90
1.33
Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6)
1.17
1.00
Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6)
2.00
1.50
Clean sheets
1
1
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Alianza Valledupar
None reported.
Águilas Doradas
None reported.
Counter-signals
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
Alianza Valledupar have the better recent form: 9 points from 5 against 4 from 5.
25
43 points from 33 games · goal difference -8
12thInternacional de Bogota41 points from 34 games · goal difference -11
13thÁguilas Doradas40 points from 30 games · goal difference -6
14thLlaneros36 points from 31 games · goal difference -4
15thFortaleza FC32 points from 31 games · goal difference -10
16thCucuta31 points from 31 games · goal difference -17
17thChico29 points from 30 games · goal difference -25
18thAlianza Valledupar28 points from 31 games · goal difference -26
19thJaguares25 points from 30 games · goal difference -22
20thDeportivo Pereira18 points from 30 games · goal difference -27