Arandina vs Cristo Atlético prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Arandina v Cristo AtléticoHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Arandina win 28%, Draw 31%, Cristo Atlético win 41%.
Arandina host Cristo Atlético in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8, Spain.
Our model gives Arandina a 28% chance of winning, a draw 31% and Cristo Atlético 41%.
The model expects Arandina to score 0.9 goals and Cristo Atlético 1.2.
Arandina have won 2 of their last 5 league matches; Cristo Atlético have won 3 of 5.
Top factors
- Arandina sit 8th with 8 points; Cristo Atlético sit 5th with 10 points.
- Arandina have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Cristo Atlético 10 from 5.
- At home, Arandina have taken 4 points from their last 2; away, Cristo Atlético have taken 4 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Arandina 0.9, Cristo Atlético 1.2 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8, before kick-off.
Arandina sit 8th with 8 points; Cristo Atlético sit 5th with 10. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Cristo Atlético.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 4th Bembibre10 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 5th Cristo Atlético10 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 6th Cultural Leonesa II10 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 7th La Virgen del Camino9 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Arandina8 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Almazán7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Bembibre | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cristo Atlético | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Arandina | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Almazán | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Burgos Promesas13 points from 5 games · goal difference +8
- 2nd UD Santa Marta12 points from 5 games · goal difference +4
- 3rd Atlético Mansillés10 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
- 4th Bembibre10 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 5th Cristo Atlético10 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 6th Cultural Leonesa II10 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 7th La Virgen del Camino9 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Arandina8 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Almazán7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 10th Palencia CF7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 11th
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Turégano3 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Away1–1
WWonv Calasanz de Soria26 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Home1–0
WWonat Salamanca II20 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Away4–3
DDrewv Almazán12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Home1–1
LLostat UD Santa Marta5 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Away0–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Unionistas II4 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Home3–0
WWonat La Virgen del Camino26 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Away1–0
WWonv Guijuelo20 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Home1–0
DDrewat Atlético Mansillés12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Away1–1
LLostv Bembibre5 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Home0–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Arandina at home and Cristo Atlético away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Arandina
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 6 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 6 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Arandina| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Cristo Atlético
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Cristo Atlético| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
Arandina at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Cristo Atlético away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Arandina | Cristo Atlético |
|---|
| League position | 8th | 5th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Cristo Atlético
None reported.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.03
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.10
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
Calasanz de Soria
7 points from 5 games · goal difference -2
12th Villaralbo5 points from 5 games · goal difference +213th Salamanca II4 points from 5 games · goal difference -514th Guijuelo3 points from 4 games · goal difference -115th Turégano2 points from 5 games · goal difference -416th Unionistas II2 points from 5 games · goal difference -517th Mirandés II1 points from 5 games · goal difference -518th Colegios Diocesanos1 points from 5 games · goal difference -9| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Burgos Promesas | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | UD Santa Marta | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético Mansillés | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cristo Atlético | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Arandina | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Almazán | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Palencia CF | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Calasanz de Soria | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Salamanca II | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Guijuelo | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Turégano | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Unionistas II | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Mirandés II | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Colegios Diocesanos | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 1 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis