Arenal vs PE Sant Jordi prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 11
Arenal v PE Sant JordiHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Arenal win 42%, Draw 25%, PE Sant Jordi win 33%.
Arenal host PE Sant Jordi in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11, Spain.
Our model gives Arenal a 42% chance of winning, a draw 25% and PE Sant Jordi 33%.
The model expects Arenal to score 1.6 goals and PE Sant Jordi 1.4.
Arenal have won 1 of their last 5 league matches; PE Sant Jordi have won 2 of 5.
Top factors
- Arenal sit 15th with 3 points; PE Sant Jordi sit 10th with 8 points.
- Arenal have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches; PE Sant Jordi 8 from 5.
- At home, Arenal have taken 0 points from their last 2; away, PE Sant Jordi have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Arenal 1.6, PE Sant Jordi 1.4 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11, before kick-off.
Arenal sit 15th with 3 points; PE Sant Jordi sit 10th with 8. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of PE Sant Jordi.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 9th Formentera8 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 10th PE Sant Jordi8 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Alcúdia6 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
- 14th Binissalem3 points from 5 games · goal difference -4
- 15th Arenal3 points from 5 games · goal difference -6
- 16th Migjorn3 points from 5 games · goal difference -8
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 9 | Formentera | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 8 |
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Binissalem | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Arenal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 3 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Manacor15 points from 5 games · goal difference +10
- 2nd Ibiza Islas Pitiusas13 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 3rd Cardassar10 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 4th Constància10 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Llosetense10 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 6th Platges Calvià9 points from 5 games · goal difference +4
- 7th Santanyí9 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Porreres9 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Formentera8 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 10th PE Sant Jordi8 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Alcúdia6 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Llosetense3 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away1–3
LLostv Porreres26 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home1–2
WWonat Mercadal19 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away2–1
LLostv Alcúdia12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home1–2
LLostat Constància5 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away0–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Inter Ibiza4 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home0–0
LLostat Formentera27 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away0–3
DDrewv Andratx20 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home2–2
WWonat Sineu12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Away4–2
WWonv Migjorn6 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Home1–0
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Arenal at home and PE Sant Jordi away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Arenal
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 5 scored, 11 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 5 scored, 11 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Arenal| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
PE Sant Jordi
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 5 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 5 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
PE Sant Jordi| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Arenal at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
PE Sant Jordi away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Arenal | PE Sant Jordi |
|---|
| League position | 15th | 10th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.60 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
PE Sant Jordi
None reported.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
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Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.13
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Average price 1.11
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CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.25
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Constància | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Llosetense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Platges Calvià | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Santanyí | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Porreres | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | Formentera | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 8 |
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Binissalem | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Arenal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 0 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
W
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L
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Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
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Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
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W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
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L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
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win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
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Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
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