Astrakhan vs Kyzyltash prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Russia - Second League - Group 1
Astrakhan v KyzyltashHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Astrakhan win 46%, Draw 26%, Kyzyltash win 28%.
Astrakhan host Kyzyltash in the Second League - Group 1, Russia.
Our model gives Astrakhan a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Kyzyltash 28%.
The model expects Astrakhan to score 1.5 goals and Kyzyltash 1.1.
Astrakhan have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Kyzyltash have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- Astrakhan sit 11th with 27 points; Kyzyltash sit 5th with 40 points.
- Astrakhan have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Kyzyltash 9 from 5.
- At home, Astrakhan have taken 1 point from their last 1; away, Kyzyltash have taken 1 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Astrakhan 1.5, Kyzyltash 1.1 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Second League - Group 1, before kick-off.
Astrakhan sit 11th with 27 points; Kyzyltash sit 5th with 40. A gap of 17 in goal difference, in favour of Kyzyltash.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 4th Pobeda42 points from 24 games · goal difference +14
- 5th Kyzyltash40 points from 25 games · goal difference +9
- 6th Rubin Yalta40 points from 25 games · goal difference +9
- 10th Lugansk30 points from 25 games · goal difference -1
- 11th Astrakhan27 points from 25 games · goal difference -8
- 12th Izberbash23 points from 26 games · goal difference -42
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Pobeda | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 42 |
| 5 | Kyzyltash | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 40 |
| 6 | Rubin Yalta | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 40 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 30 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 27 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -42 | 23 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Sevastopol60 points from 25 games · goal difference +26
- 2nd Shahter Taganrog53 points from 26 games · goal difference +23
- 3rd Rostov II50 points from 25 games · goal difference +25
- 4th Pobeda42 points from 24 games · goal difference +14
- 5th Kyzyltash40 points from 25 games · goal difference +9
- 6th Rubin Yalta40 points from 25 games · goal difference +9
- 7th Druzhba39 points from 25 games · goal difference +5
- 8th Nart Cherkessk38 points from 25 games · goal difference +12
- 9th Spartak Nalchik34 points from 24 games · goal difference +7
- 10th Lugansk30 points from 25 games · goal difference -1
- 11th Astrakhan
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Spartak Nalchik3 Oct 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Away1–2
WWonat Angust Nazran26 Sept 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Away1–0
DDrewat Izberbash19 Sept 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Away0–0
LLostat Pobeda12 Sept 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Away1–2
DDrewv Dynamo Makhachkala II5 Sept 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Home1–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Lugansk29 Aug 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Away0–4
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Shahter Taganrog3 Oct 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Home2–1
LLostat FK Chayka 226 Sept 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Away1–3
WWonv Rubin Yalta12 Sept 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Home2–0
LLostat Sevastopol5 Sept 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Away1–2
WWonv Nart Cherkessk29 Aug 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Home3–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Druzhba22 Aug 2026 · Second League - Group 1 · Away1–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Astrakhan at home and Kyzyltash away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Astrakhan
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 9 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (1)0 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 1 scored, 1 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (1)0 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 1 scored, 1 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Astrakhan| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (1) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (1) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Kyzyltash
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 9 scored, 8 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 10 scored, 9 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 6 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 6 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Kyzyltash| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
Astrakhan at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Kyzyltash away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Astrakhan | Kyzyltash |
|---|
| League position | 11th | 5th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.08 | 1.60 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.67 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
27 points from 25 games · goal difference -8
12th Izberbash23 points from 26 games · goal difference -4213th Angust Nazran19 points from 24 games · goal difference -1614th PSK Dinskaya17 points from 12 games · goal difference -315th Dynamo Makhachkala II17 points from 26 games · goal difference -2316th FK Chayka 217 points from 26 games · goal difference -37| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Sevastopol | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +26 | 60 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +23 | 53 |
| 3 | Rostov II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +25 | 50 |
| 4 | Pobeda | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 42 |
| 5 | Kyzyltash | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 40 |
| 6 | Rubin Yalta | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 40 |
| 7 | Druzhba | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 39 |
| 8 | Nart Cherkessk | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 38 |
| 9 | Spartak Nalchik | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 34 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 30 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 27 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -42 | 23 |
| 13 | Angust Nazran | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 19 |
| 14 | PSK Dinskaya | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 17 |
| 15 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -23 | 17 |
| 16 | FK Chayka 2 | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -37 | 17 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis