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· Lithuania - 1 Lyga
Babrungas v JonavaHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Babrungas win 58%, Draw 25%, Jonava win 17%.
Babrungas host Jonava in the 1 Lyga, Lithuania.
Our model gives Babrungas a 58% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Jonava 17%.
The model expects Babrungas to score 1.6 goals and Jonava 0.7.
Babrungas have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Jonava have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Babrungas sit 2nd with 61 points; Jonava sit 10th with 27 points.
- Babrungas have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Jonava 4 from 5.
- At home, Babrungas have taken 4 points from their last 2; away, Jonava have taken 3 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Babrungas win
- 58% · price 1.42
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Jonava win17% · price 6.20 Over 2.5 goals45% · price 1.80 Expected goals (our model)Babrungas 1.6, Jonava 0.7 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the 1 Lyga, before kick-off.
Babrungas sit 2nd with 61 points; Jonava sit 10th with 27. A gap of 37 in goal difference, in favour of Babrungas.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 1st Minija67 points from 25 games · goal difference +55
- 2nd Babrungas61 points from 25 games · goal difference +32
- 3rd Be1 NFA51 points from 25 games · goal difference +18
- 9th Atmosfera30 points from 24 games · goal difference +4
- 10th Jonava27 points from 25 games · goal difference -5
- 11th Garliava25 points from 25 games · goal difference -2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Minija | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +55 | 67 |
| 2 | Babrungas | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 61 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 51 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 30 |
| 10 | Jonava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | Garliava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 25 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Minija67 points from 25 games · goal difference +55
- 2nd Babrungas61 points from 25 games · goal difference +32
- 3rd Be1 NFA51 points from 25 games · goal difference +18
- 4th Žalgiris II46 points from 26 games · goal difference +7
- 5th Neptūną Klaipėda44 points from 25 games · goal difference +3
- 6th Tauras43 points from 25 games · goal difference +12
- 7th BFA43 points from 26 games · goal difference +3
- 8th Dainava41 points from 26 games · goal difference +10
- 9th Atmosfera30 points from 24 games · goal difference +4
- 10th Jonava27 points from 25 games · goal difference -5
- 11th Garliava25 points from 25 games · goal difference -2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Žalgiris II20 Sept 2026 · 1 Lyga · Away1–0
WWonv Atmosfera11 Sept 2026 · 1 Lyga · Home3–2
LLostat BFA4 Sept 2026 · 1 Lyga · Away1–2
WWonat Garliava29 Aug 2026 · 1 Lyga · Away1–0
DDrewv Tauras21 Aug 2026 · 1 Lyga · Home1–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Neptūną Klaipėda15 Aug 2026 · 1 Lyga · Away4–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Tauras18 Sept 2026 · 1 Lyga · Home2–3
LLostat Neptūną Klaipėda11 Sept 2026 · 1 Lyga · Away0–2
DDrewv Dainava4 Sept 2026 · 1 Lyga · Home0–0
WWonat Transinvest 229 Aug 2026 · 1 Lyga · Away2–1
LLostv FA Šiauliai II21 Aug 2026 · 1 Lyga · Home0–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Kauno Žalgiris II14 Aug 2026 · 1 Lyga · Away1–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Babrungas at home and Jonava away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Babrungas
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 5 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 11 scored, 5 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Babrungas| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Jonava
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 7 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 5 scored, 9 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Jonava| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Babrungas at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Jonava away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Babrungas | Jonava |
|---|
| League position | 2nd | 10th |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.44 | 1.08 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 0.83 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Minija | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +55 | 67 |
| 2 | Babrungas | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 61 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 51 |
| 4 | Žalgiris II | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 46 |
| 5 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 44 |
| 6 | Tauras | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 43 |
| 7 | BFA | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 43 |
| 8 | Dainava | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 41 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 30 |
| 10 | Jonava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | Garliava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 25 |
| 12 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 23 |
| 13 | Hegelmann II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -26 | 22 |
| 14 | Transinvest 2 | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -29 | 21 |
| 15 | FA Šiauliai II | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -29 | 18 |
| 16 | Ekranas | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -33 | 14 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis