Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· Wales - FAW Championship
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Baglan Dragons win 31%, Draw 24%, Pontypridd Town win 45%.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Baglan Dragons host Pontypridd Town in the FAW Championship, Wales.
Our model gives Baglan Dragons a 31% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Pontypridd Town 45%.
The model expects Baglan Dragons to score 1.4 goals and Pontypridd Town 1.8.
Baglan Dragons have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Pontypridd Town have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the FAW Championship, before kick-off.
Baglan Dragons sit 13th with 16 points; Pontypridd Town sit 7th with 19. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Pontypridd Town; Baglan Dragons have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Baglan Dragons at home and Pontypridd Town away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Baglan Dragons | Pontypridd Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 7th |
| Points per game | 1.60 | 2.11 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 19 |
| 7 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 19 |
| 8 | Bala Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 19 |
| 12 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Buckley Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 15 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +20 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 22 |
| 3 | Swansea University | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 21 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 10 |
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | 0 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (4) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (4) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | 0 | 1 |
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
Baglan Dragons at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Pontypridd Town away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +11 |
| 20 |
| 5 | Porthmadog | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 19 |
| 7 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 19 |
| 8 | Bala Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 19 |
| 9 | Caersws | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 10 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Guilsfield | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Buckley Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 15 |
| 15 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 14 |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 17 | Treowen Stars | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 12 |
| 19 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 11 |
| 20 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 10 |
| 21 | Rhyl | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 10 |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 10 |
| 23 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 9 |
| 25 | Newport City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 8 |
| 26 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 27 | Denbigh Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
| 28 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 7 |
| 29 | Llantwit Major | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 7 |
| 30 | Gresford Athletic | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 7 |
| 31 | llanelli AFC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 2 |
| 32 | Penrhyncoch | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -26 | 1 |