Barcelona v GetafeBarcelonaHomevGetafeAwayBarcelonaHomevGetafeAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Barcelona win 65%, Draw 21%, Getafe win 14%.
65%
Barcelona win
21%
Draw
14%
Getafe win
What the data says
Barcelona host Getafe in the La Liga, Spain.
Our model gives Barcelona a 65% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Getafe 14%.
The model expects Barcelona to score 1.9 goals and Getafe 0.7.
Barcelona have won 6 of their last 6 league matches; Getafe have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
Barcelona sit 1st with 21 points; Getafe sit 12th with 8 points.
Barcelona have taken 15 points from their last 5 matches; Getafe 5 from 5.
At home, Barcelona have taken 15 points from their last 5; away, Getafe have taken 1 from their last 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 01:23 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Barcelona win
65% · price 1.08
Draw
21% · price 11.89
Getafe win
14% · price 25.66
Over 1.5 goals
74% · price 1.05
Over 2.5 goals
51% · price 1.26
Both teams score
48% · price 2.23
Expected goals (our model)
Barcelona 1.9, Getafe 0.7
Key factors
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Barcelona sit 1st with 21 points; Getafe sit 12th with 8 points.
Barcelona have taken 15 points from their last 5 matches; Getafe 5 from 5.
At home, Barcelona have taken 15 points from their last 5; away, Getafe have taken 1 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 30 meetings Barcelona won 21, Getafe won 2 and 7 were drawn.
Barcelona have 4 players out or doubtful; Getafe have 3.
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the La Liga, before kick-off.
Barcelona sit 1st with 21 points; Getafe sit 12th with 8. A gap of 27 in goal difference, in favour of Barcelona.
1stBarcelona21 points from 7 games · goal difference +24
2ndAtletico Madrid16 points from 7 games · goal difference +9
11thEspanyol8 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
12thGetafe8 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
13thRayo Vallecano8 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Barcelona
7
7
0
0
31
7
+24
21
2
Atletico Madrid
7
5
1
1
16
7
+9
16
11
Espanyol
8
2
2
4
11
11
0
8
12
Getafe
7
2
2
3
4
7
-3
8
13
Rayo Vallecano
7
2
2
3
11
16
-5
8
Show full tableShow less
1stBarcelona21 points from 7 games · goal difference +24
2ndAtletico Madrid16 points from 7 games · goal difference +9
3rdReal Betis16 points from 7 games · goal difference +2
4thReal Madrid15 points from 7 games · goal difference +10
5thSevilla13 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
6thAlaves11 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
7thDeportivo La Coruna10 points from 7 games · goal difference +2
8thReal Sociedad10 points from 7 games · goal difference -4
9thVillarreal8 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
10thAthletic Club8 points from 6 games · goal difference +1
11thEspanyol
Barcelona: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
WWonat Sevilla19 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Away3–1
WWonv Racing Santander16 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Home7–2
WWonat Levante13 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Away4–2
WWonv Feyenoord9 Sept 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Home5–1
WWonat Valencia6 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Away5–0
Show last 10 matchesShowing 10
WWonv Rayo Vallecano31 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Home5–2
WWonv Athletic Club27 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Home2–0
WWonat Elche23 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Away5–0
WWonv Al Ahly19 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home2–1
WWonat FC Basel 189316 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away5–2
Getafe: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
WWonv Malaga20 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Home1–0
LLostat Real Betis17 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Away0–1
DDrewv Deportivo La Coruna13 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Home1–1
DDrewv Celta Vigo7 Sept 2026 · La Liga · Home1–1
LLostat Osasuna31 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Away0–1
Show last 10 matchesShowing 10
LLostat FK Partizan27 Aug 2026 · UEFA Europa Conference League · Away1–2
WWonv Racing Santander23 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Home1–0
WWonv FK Partizan20 Aug 2026 · UEFA Europa Conference League · Home3–1
LLostat Alaves15 Aug 2026 · La Liga · Away0–3
DDrewat Tottenham8 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away1–1
Head to head
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings
30
Barcelona wins
21
Draws
7
Getafe wins
2
Record shown: November 2010 to April 2026.
Average goals 2.9 (Barcelona 2.3, Getafe 0.6). Draws 23%, both teams scored 40%, over 2.5 goals 53%.
25 Apr 2026 · La LigaGetafe0–2Barcelona
21 Sept 2025 · La LigaBarcelona3–0Getafe
18 Jan 2025 · La LigaGetafe1–1Barcelona
25 Sept 2024 · La LigaBarcelona1–0Getafe
24 Feb 2024 · La LigaBarcelona4–0Getafe
Show last 10 meetingsShowing 10
13 Aug 2023 · La LigaGetafe0–0Barcelona
16 Apr 2023 · La LigaGetafe0–0Barcelona
22 Jan 2023 · La LigaBarcelona1–0Getafe
15 May 2022 · La LigaGetafe0–0Barcelona
29 Aug 2021 · La LigaBarcelona2–1Getafe
Show last 20 meetingsShowing 20
22 Apr 2021 · La LigaBarcelona5–2Getafe
17 Oct 2020 · La LigaGetafe1–0
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Barcelona at home and Getafe away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Barcelona
Last 5 (5)5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 24 scored, 6 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (10)10 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 43 scored, 11 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Home, last 5 (5)5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 21 scored, 6 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (9)9 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 31 scored, 8 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Barcelona
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
5
0
0
24
6
+18
15
3.00
1
0
Last 10 (10)
10
10
0
0
43
11
+32
30
3.00
3
0
Home, last 5 (5)
5
5
0
0
21
6
+15
15
3.00
1
0
Home, last 10 (9)
9
9
0
0
31
8
+23
27
3.00
3
0
Getafe
Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost · 9 scored, 11 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 5 (5)0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 2 scored, 8 conceded · 0.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 10 (10)1 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost · 5 scored, 15 conceded · 0.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 6
Getafe
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
1
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Barcelona
Getafe
League position
1st
12th
Points per game
3.00
1.14
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)
4.30
0.90
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)
1.10
1.10
Clean sheets
3
2
Schedule and rest
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Barcelona: 21 days since their last match (19 Sept 2026).
Getafe: 20 days since their last match (20 Sept 2026).
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Barcelona
R. Bardghji · out, knee injury
A. Christensen · out, muscle injury
Raphinha · out, muscle injury
F. de Jong · out, knee injury
Getafe
Juanmi · out, knee injury
C. Uche · out, knee injury
A. Abqar · doubtful, muscle injury
8 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
12thGetafe8 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
13thRayo Vallecano8 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
14thOsasuna8 points from 7 games · goal difference -7
15thCelta Vigo7 points from 7 games · goal difference +2
16thRacing Santander7 points from 7 games · goal difference -10
17thLevante5 points from 6 games · goal difference -4
18thElche5 points from 7 games · goal difference -6
19thValencia4 points from 7 games · goal difference -9
20thMalaga4 points from 8 games · goal difference -9
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Barcelona
7
7
0
0
31
7
+24
21
2
Atletico Madrid
7
5
1
1
16
7
+9
16
3
Real Betis
7
5
1
1
9
7
+2
16
4
Real Madrid
7
5
0
2
18
8
+10
15
5
Sevilla
7
4
1
2
10
9
+1
13
6
Alaves
7
3
2
2
11
6
+5
11
7
Deportivo La Coruna
7
2
4
1
10
8
+2
10
8
Real Sociedad
7
3
1
3
9
13
-4
10
9
Villarreal
7
2
2
3
13
12
+1
8
10
Athletic Club
6
2
2
2
7
6
+1
8
11
Espanyol
8
2
2
4
11
11
0
8
12
Getafe
7
2
2
3
4
7
-3
8
13
Rayo Vallecano
7
2
2
3
11
16
-5
8
14
Osasuna
7
2
2
3
6
13
-7
8
15
Celta Vigo
7
1
4
2
8
6
+2
7
16
Racing Santander
7
2
1
4
11
21
-10
7
17
Levante
6
1
2
3
8
12
-4
5
18
Elche
7
1
2
4
11
17
-6
5
19
Valencia
7
1
1
5
4
13
-9
4
20
Malaga
8
0
4
4
4
13
-9
4
Show last 20 matchesShowing 20
LLostat Udinese8 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away0–1
WWonv Nottingham Forest8 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home1–0