Blackburn vs Cardiff prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - Championship
Blackburn v CardiffHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Blackburn win 44%, Draw 28%, Cardiff win 28%.
Blackburn host Cardiff in the Championship, England.
Our model gives Blackburn a 44% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Cardiff 28%.
The model expects Blackburn to score 1.4 goals and Cardiff 1.0.
Blackburn have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Cardiff have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Blackburn sit 16th with 9 points; Cardiff sit 21st with 7 points.
- Blackburn have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Cardiff 4 from 5.
- At home, Blackburn have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Cardiff have taken 0 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Cardiff win28% · price 2.39 Over 1.5 goals72% · price 1.18 Over 2.5 goals47% · price 1.60 Both teams score50% · price 1.49 Expected goals (our model)Blackburn 1.4, Cardiff 1.0 Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
- Blackburn sit 16th with 9 points; Cardiff sit 21st with 7 points.
- Blackburn have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Cardiff 4 from 5.
- At home, Blackburn have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Cardiff have taken 0 from their last 3.
- Blackburn have 8 players out or doubtful; Cardiff have 5.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Championship, before kick-off.
Blackburn sit 16th with 9 points; Cardiff sit 21st with 7. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Blackburn.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 15th Bolton10 points from 8 games · goal difference -4
- 16th Blackburn9 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
- 17th Norwich9 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 20th Watford8 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 21st Cardiff7 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
- 22nd Derby5 points from 8 games · goal difference -7
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 5 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Swansea17 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 2nd West Ham16 points from 9 games · goal difference +11
- 3rd Middlesbrough15 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 4th Southampton14 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 5th Wolves14 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
- 6th QPR14 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 7th West Brom14 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Stoke City13 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Bristol City13 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 10th Charlton12 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 11th Birmingham11 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Portsmouth19 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away2–2
WWonv Millwall12 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home3–1
LLostv Sheffield Utd8 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–2
LLostat Preston5 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away1–2
DDrewat Lincoln1 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv QPR29 Aug 2026 · Championship · Home1–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Charlton19 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home3–1
LLostat Bolton12 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away0–1
DDrewv Stoke City8 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–1
LLostat Portsmouth5 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away0–2
LLostat QPR2 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away1–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewv Sheffield Utd29 Aug 2026 · Championship · Home2–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Blackburn at home and Cardiff away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Blackburn
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 8 scored, 9 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Blackburn| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Cardiff
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 9 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 1 scored, 5 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 10 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 1 scored, 5 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Cardiff| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Blackburn at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Cardiff away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Blackburn | Cardiff |
|---|
| League position | 16th | 21st |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.13 | 0.88 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 1.17 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Blackburn
- A. Forshaw · out, hip injury
- M. Jorgensen · out, hamstring injury
- A. Kargbo · out, muscle injury
- M. Litherland · out, muscle injury
- L. Miller · out, achilles tendon injury
- Y. Ohashi · out, hamstring injury
- Y. Ribeiro · out, hamstring injury
- S. Wharton · out, achilles tendon injury
Cardiff
- C. Chambers · out, knee injury
- R. Colwill · out, health problems
- I. Davies · out, muscle injury
- W. Fish · out, hernia
- D. Lawlor · out, muscle injury
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Blackburn have 8 players out or doubtful, Cardiff 5.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Southampton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 14 |
| 5 | Wolves | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | West Brom | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Bristol City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Charlton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Millwall | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Lincoln | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.