Braintree vs Truro City prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - National League - South
Braintree v Truro CityHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Braintree win 34%, Draw 23%, Truro City win 43%.
Braintree host Truro City in the National League - South, England.
Our model gives Braintree a 34% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Truro City 43%.
The model expects Braintree to score 1.5 goals and Truro City 1.8.
Braintree have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Truro City have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Braintree sit 21st with 10 points; Truro City sit 4th with 18 points.
- Braintree have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Truro City 8 from 5.
- At home, Braintree have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Truro City have taken 4 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Braintree win
- 34% · price 4.52
Truro City win43% · price 1.60 Over 1.5 goals81% · price 1.15 Over 2.5 goals61% · price 1.55 Both teams score57% · price 1.59 Expected goals (our model)Braintree 1.5, Truro City 1.8 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National League - South, before kick-off.
Braintree sit 21st with 10 points; Truro City sit 4th with 18. A gap of 16 in goal difference, in favour of Truro City.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 3rd Salisbury18 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
- 4th Truro City18 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
- 5th Billericay Town18 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
- 20th AFC Totton10 points from 9 games · goal difference -7
- 21st Braintree10 points from 10 games · goal difference -8
- 22nd Hampton & Richmond8 points from 10 games · goal difference -13
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 3 | Salisbury | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Truro City | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 18 |
| 20 | AFC Totton | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Maidstone Utd19 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
- 2nd Dagenham & Redbridge19 points from 10 games · goal difference +3
- 3rd Salisbury18 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
- 4th Truro City18 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
- 5th Billericay Town18 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
- 6th Weston-super-Mare17 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
- 7th Farnham Town17 points from 10 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Dover17 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Dorking Wanderers16 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
- 10th Tonbridge Angels14 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
- 11th
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Walton & Hersham6 Oct 2026 · National League - South · Home1–3
LLostat Dorking Wanderers26 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Away3–4
LLostat Billericay Town15 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Away2–3
WWonv Maidstone Utd12 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Home2–1
WWonat Slough Town5 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Away2–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Farnborough31 Aug 2026 · National League - South · Home0–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Farnham Town6 Oct 2026 · National League - South · Away2–2
WWonat Maidstone Utd26 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Away2–1
LLostv Salisbury15 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Home0–1
DDrewv Walton & Hersham12 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Home1–1
WWonv Chesham United5 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Home3–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Dorking Wanderers31 Aug 2026 · National League - South · Away0–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Braintree at home and Truro City away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Braintree
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 12 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 10 scored, 14 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 6 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 6 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Braintree| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Truro City
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 6 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 7 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Truro City| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Braintree at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Truro City away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Braintree | Truro City |
|---|
| League position | 21st | 4th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.33 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 1.17 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Maidenhead
13 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
12th Hemel Hempstead Town13 points from 10 games · goal difference 013th Torquay13 points from 10 games · goal difference -114th Ebbsfleet United12 points from 6 games · goal difference +415th Folkestone Invicta12 points from 10 games · goal difference +316th Chelmsford City11 points from 9 games · goal difference +117th Horsham11 points from 9 games · goal difference -118th Farnborough11 points from 9 games · goal difference -519th Chesham United10 points from 10 games · goal difference -320th AFC Totton10 points from 9 games · goal difference -721st Braintree10 points from 10 games · goal difference -822nd Hampton & Richmond8 points from 10 games · goal difference -1323rd Walton & Hersham5 points from 10 games · goal difference -1824th Slough Town4 points from 10 games · goal difference -14| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 19 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Truro City | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Weston-super-Mare | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 17 |
| 7 | Farnham Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 17 |
| 8 | Dover | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 17 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 16 |
| 10 | Tonbridge Angels | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 14 |
| 11 | Maidenhead | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Torquay | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Ebbsfleet United | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 12 |
| 15 | Folkestone Invicta | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 12 |
| 16 | Chelmsford City | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 17 | Horsham | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | Farnborough | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 11 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | AFC Totton | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 5 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 | 1.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
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Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
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· England - Premier League
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
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Average price 1.09
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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· Germany - Bundesliga
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L
· England - Premier League
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W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
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· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
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L
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